Believe It or Not, Spring Training Storylines: It may be time to remove Jared Jones from draft boards, more

Also, find out why Chris Towers believes Roki Sasaki's spring performance left much to be desired

Seven days until Opening Day ... 

One of the biggest lingering questions as we head into the final week of draft prep season has been George Kirby's status. He was shut down a few weeks ago with shoulder soreness, but we received painfully few details at the time, leaving his status for the 2025 season totally up in the air. 

Thankfully, we got an update Wednesday, and it mostly seems like good news. Kirby still hasn't been cleared to throw since being shut down, and while he believes his shoulder is healthy enough to throw, the team continues to slow-play it. However, he had a "biologics" injection shortly after suffering the initial injury, per The Seattle Times, and has been cleared in recent days to begin arm strengthening exercises. 

Which means, if all goes according to plan, Kirby should be able to resume a throwing program soon, with the hope he will be able to play catch in the coming days. He's been ruled out for the start of the season and will stay back at the team's spring training complex for three more weeks once the rest of the team leaves, with an opportunity to work in some extended spring training games.

A rehab assignment will probably follow, but there was this quote from Kirby: "I'm hoping to get back up there by the middle of April."

Shoulders are tricky joints, and things often don't go according to plan, so we can't just take this at face value and say Kirby will be back by mid-April, ready to be the Fantasy ace you hoped he would be … but there's a chance. This injury never sounded too serious – at least as far as shoulder injuries go – and so, with some luck, we could see Kirby back before the first month of the season is over, making him a viable, if risky, pick in all leagues outside the top-100 of drafts. 

We can't say the same about Jared Jones, unfortunately, and that's where we're starting today's newsletter – our latest, and last, round of "Spring Training Believe It or Not." Let's get to it because this is big news:

Spring Training Believe It or Not

Believe It or Not: Jared Jones should be off draft boards

Jones was scratched from his next spring start after dealing with elbow discomfort following a recent bullpen session, and he won't pitch again this spring as the team awaits further testing on the elbow. Which means we have to assume he won't be ready for the start of the regular season, even though the team is attempting to downplay the severity as of now. 

"This is normal standard protocol," Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk told reporters Wednesday. "When any pitcher comes to the medical staff with a concern of not recovering well, we want to be thorough, we want to be comprehensive. I don't want to be an alarmist at this point in time."

The team is seeking a second opinion on Jones' elbow, but anytime a young, flame-throwing pitcher's elbow starts barking, we kind of have to assume the worst. 

Don't believe it. 

At least, not yet. We'll find out Jones' status soon enough, and if I'm being perfectly frank, I'm expecting bad news. Jones sits in the high 90s with his fastball and has always seemed to be a max-effort kind of thrower, one whose velocity would often wane as starts went on – his four-seamer averaged 98.7 mph in the first inning last season but was down to 96.4 on average by the fifth, the biggest dropoff for any starter who threw at least 100 four-seamers in both the first and fifth innings last season. 

I don't know how much that specific stat actually matters - Hunter Greene gained the most velocity from the first to the fifth of any starter, and he's dealt with plenty of injury issues of his own. But it was something that clearly limited Jones' effectiveness last season, and it would be surprising if it became less of an issue after an elbow injury. 

So, yeah, downgrade Jones in drafts. A lot. To the reserve rounds at this point. And, it's entirely possible even a reserve-round pick ends up being too much to spend on Jones if he ends up requiring season-ending surgery. 

But it's also possible that this ends up being just a bump in the road and he's back on a mound by May. That seems unlikely from where I'm standing, but not impossible. And until we know for sure, Jones' upside is still worth chasing. Just in case. 

Believe It or Not: Spencer Strider is going to be an ace in 2025

He sure looked like one in his spring debut, didn't he? He faced eight batters and struck out six in his start against the Red Sox earlier this week. He was efficient, needing just 27 pitches to get through 2.2 innings, throwing 23 of them for strikes. It was about as good a return from major elbow surgery as you could have possibly hoped for.

And boy are people excited. In the week prior to his debut, Strider's average draft position in 96 NFBC leagues was 109.2; in 24 drafts since, it's already up to 81.4. He's not being drafted as an ace, but he's not far off, either, with just 19 starting pitchers going ahead of him in those drafts. 

Don't believe it. 

I mean, maybe. I don't know. And neither do you, nor does anyone else drafting right now, nor even Strider or the Braves' medical experts. He dominated a Triple-A caliber lineup, and he did so while averaging 94.8 mph with his four-seamer – down 1.5 mph from his injury-shorted 2024 season and 2.4 mph down from 2023. 

Which is to say, he wasn't exactly back. 

But, of course, it was just his very first outing in nearly a year coming back from an internal brace procedure. Which begs the obvious question: How much velocity can he gain from here? And the answer to that one is totally unknowable. Was Strider going at max effort and sitting at 94.8 mph? If so, that would be a little worrisome, even assuming he builds up more arm strength as he goes on.

But, if he's capable of sitting 97 and was holding back in his first outing, that would seem to be a pretty good sign that he can get back to where he was pre-injury. And it would seem to be a totally viable explanation … but it is, again, totally unknowable at this point. 

It was an electric performance from Strider, but I'm not going to buy him at his new price. Not when we know he's going to miss at least the first few weeks of the season, and when we have to assume he'll be limited in some way during the season – the Braves aren't going to just throw him out there for 160-plus innings in his first season back from major elbow surgery, right? There are going to have to be some limited starts, especially early on, and likely some skipped outings along the way, too.

There's upside here, of course, but are 130 innings of Spencer Strider really worth more than 190 innings from Max Fried? Or potentially 200 innings from Aaron Nola or Logan Webb? 

I'm not convinced, and I'll let someone else roll the dice on Strider being fully back to form by the time he's off the IL in April.  

Believe It or Not: Roki Sasaki won't be worth the hype

Sasaki was dominant in his first spring start, striking out five in three innings of work with just one walk. Since then, he's been pretty underwhelming, including in his MLB debut Wednesday when he walked five and struck out three while making it through just three innings on 56 pitches against the Cubs.

Sasaki's velocity was fine in his start against the Cubs, as he hit 101 mph and sat at 98. However, his command was shaky at best – he threw just 34% of his pitches in the strike zone, including just one of his 15 splitters. That's supposed to be his signature pitch, but he was just all over the place with it, generating only two total swings on 15 pitches, including one swing-and-miss – and he had just five whiffs on his 56 pitches total.

It certainly wasn't the ace-level pitching we were hoping for from Sasaki.

Believe it.

I'm actually not particularly concerned about his rough debut – it came after just two spring starts, after all, in front of a home crowd in Japan that surely had Sasaki feeling extra emotions in his MLB debut. I won't hold that against him – though his struggles commanding that splitter do highlight how that unique, low-spin pitch could have some knuckleball-like effects that make it tougher to command on any given day.

But I've been skeptical about Sasaki since before he signed for a couple of reasons. For one thing, his elite numbers in Japan have come in a league with a vastly different offensive environment than MLB – a 2.35 ERA would have been the best mark among qualifiers in MLB last season, but 13 different pitchers had a better mark in the NPB in at least 100 innings. They're in the midst of a deadball era, and I'm not sure everyone is making the proper adjustments for that.

And then there's the skills themselves, which aren't as well-honed as you would like for a guy who was a top-100 pick in most leagues. He throws hard but with less-than-ideal movement and spin, which makes the pitch play below his velocity. The splitter is an outrageous pitch – maybe one of the most devastatingly effective in MLB already – but as he showed Wednesday, commanding it consistently may be an issue.

(For a more optimistic but still fair assessment of Sasaki's arsenal that gets into the details, I highly recommend this piece from Mario Delgado Genzor on BaseballProspectus.com.)

And then add in injury concerns and workload limitations, and I just never believed Sasaki was going to be worth the price you paid for him in Fantasy. There will be moments of absolute brilliance, and they'll probably outnumber starts like Wednesday's when it's all said and done. But I just don't think Sasaki is going to be the immediate difference maker his price needed him to be. 

Believe It or Not: Kristian Campbell is a must-draft player

Second base might be among the more boring positions in baseball these days, but it's been a source of tons of plenty of intrigue for the Red Sox this spring. They opened camp with Campbell, the top prospect, in a competition for the spot with Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton, and others, but when they signed Alex Bregman as a free agent, it seemed like the veteran was going to be the answer there – after all, they had an in-house All-Star manning the hot corner in Rafael Devers.

But, even though Devers made his stance clear, the Red Sox never confirmed that Bregman-to-the-keystone was the plan. And it's grown increasingly clear that it never was the plan – at this point, all signs point to Bregman being the starting third baseman and Devers transitioning to a full-time DH role. And it's starting to look like Campbell will be the answer at second base, even if the team hasn't come close to confirming it. 

Believe it. 

Campbell has played just 137 games as a professional, but it just doesn't seem like there's much left for him to prove after he stormed through the top three levels of the minors, putting up a massive 180 wRC+, including a 139 wRC+ in Triple-A with excellent plate discipline and strong batted-ball metrics. He did just about everything you could want from a top prospect, including playing viable shortstop and outfield defense, and there is five-category upside here at a position that is deep on useful options but shallow on difference-makers.

Campbell has the skill set to be a potential difference maker, and if he was guaranteed the Opening Day job, he might get pushed into the top 150 in drafts. I'm willing to draft him inside the top 200 as it is, in the hopes of 20-20 upside with a good batting average in a great lineup. It's time to get excited. 

Believe It or Not: Brett Baty matters as a starting 2B

Wait, Brett Baty, starting second baseman? It sure seems like that's the plan for the Mets in the wake of Jeff McNeil's season-opening oblique injury. And it might be his very last chance to prove his worth to the Mets after a disappointing start to his MLB career for the erstwhile third baseman. He might platoon with Luisangel Acuña at times, but if Baty is going to be the primary option out there, he should be Fantasy relevant, right?

Don't believe it. 

I mean, it's possible. Baty's been given plenty of opportunities in the majors, but it's not like he's had a ton of consistent chances – his 602 career plate appearances are spread over 169 games and three seasons, with just 148 starts to his name. And he has remained a productive hitter at Triple-A, putting up a 119 wRC+ there in 2024 even in a relatively down year.

But I just don't see it coming together for him. Baty has some raw power but hasn't shown much ability to put it into play at the major-league level, with mid-range average exit velocities and real struggles to lift the ball, especially to the pull side. There might be above-average pop here, but he struggles to capitalize on it in games, and he doesn't make great swing decisions either. He'll get a few weeks to show what he can do, and in deeper leagues, he can be worth a late-round look. But I'm not really interested in any 12-team leagues, and his leash figures to be awfully short on both sides of the ball, so he has to hit immediately. 

I usually like a post-hype sleeper, and I'm glad Baty is getting the chance. But he's not particularly high on my list of late-round targets at this point. 

Believe It or Not: Robbie Ray is the mid-round pitcher to target in drafts this weekend

Armed with Tarik Skubal's changeup and finally healthy, Ray has been putting on a show this spring, allowing two earned runs with 19 strikeouts and zero walks through 14.1 innings of work. Is Ray about to mess around and win his second Cy Young award and a bunch of us in our Fantasy leagues?

Believe it. 

I mean, sure, I'd bet against Ray winning the Cy Young, but it's a live possibility. He's really good, even if we haven't really seen him pitch at that level since 2021. But this spring has been a reminder of just how good Ray is when he's healthy – and last year's hamstring injury just doesn't really concern me very much at this point.

Ray's spring results are less important than the fact that his stuff seems like it is more or less back to pre-injury levels. When he's right, Ray isn't far off Blake Snell,who goes a lot earlier than him even with Ray's price rising this spring – over the past week, Ray is at 136.6, well behind Snell's 50.7 price. I'll take the cheaper name there every time. 

Believe It or Not: Brice Turang's shoulder injury is something to panic about

Turang is dealing with shoulder fatigue and right arm discomfort, and while an MRI showed no structural damage, it was serious enough to change the Brewers' starting infield plans. They were apparently planning to have Turang start at shortstop before this, but now it looks like Turang will remain at second base, where he did win a Gold Glove last season, to be fair. That means Joseph Ortiz will man the more challenging position – and it means Turang will be trying to play through a shoulder injury, at least at the start of the season. 

Believe it.

Look, Turang doesn't have much margin for error as it is. He hit just .254/.316/.349 with underlying metrics that were dead-on what he actually accomplished. And he hit just .220 in the second half, so we already saw what the downside could look like. If there's any drop in the skill set, the bat could collapse, and a spring shoulder injury is never a good sign. He should steal a bunch of bases, though you also have to be concerned that they'll curtail his steal attempts as a result of the injury, too. There isn't a ton of upside here as is, and the floor might be in the basement. 

Believe It or Not: Griffin Canning has late-round sleeper appeal

The Mets have turned their reputation around in the past few years thanks in part to the work they've done wringing value out of names like Sean Manaea, David Peterson, and others, and now Canning looks to be their next success story. The former Angel enters 2025 with a 4.78 career ERA, but he's putting together an impressive spring, with 16 strikeouts in 10 innings and only one earned run allowed. 

With injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, Canning looks like he has a starting rotation spot, and Fantasy players need to take notice. 

Don't believe it.

Maybe in 15-team leagues. But in 12-teamers, I'm going to need to see him do it against a real MLB lineup.

That's not to say there isn't anything here. Canning's whole approach this spring has changed, as he's using his slider as his primary pitch, and it's an approach that makes a lot of sense, as that has long been his money pitch, while his four-seamer has gotten crushed routinely. He has never thrown his slider more than 30% of the time in a season, while his four-seamer usually gets a 40% usage rate and gives up tons of hard contact. 

So, the change makes sense. But Canning's slider also got tagged for a pretty mediocre .315 expected wOBA last season and seven homers, with a merely decent 33.1% whiff rate, so it's not like we're talking about a pitch that has consistently been elite. It's probably a better approach, but I'm still considering Canning to be a streamer until proven otherwise – that being said, he might open the season with two starts against the lowly Marlins, so he might be a viable early-season streaming option for the first few weeks.