Draft Prep: Western Conference scouting report

Our Sergio Gonzalez goes through the Western Conference looking for sleepers and breakouts as part of our Fantasy Basketball draft preview.

Every owner is looking for those hidden gems leading up to their drafts. We've scouted every team in the Western Conference for potential sleepers as well as busts to assist you in fielding the best Fantasy team.

Breakout Alert -- These are players that are in a situation to improve upon their numbers to the point where they'll greatly out-produce their draft value.

Buy Low -- In the sleeper mold, these are players who will be available in the middle-to-late rounds in Fantasy drafts, but could provide a nice value to Fantasy owners.

Buyer Beware -- These are players that we want to give you a heads up on. They aren't necessarily busts, but for varying reasons could be in for numbers that won't live up to common expectation.

	Breakout Alert: G Devin Harris He has progressed in each of his first three NBA seasons, making us believe that he'll improve upon his numbers in 2007-08. He's a shoot-first, pass-second guard who has yet to reach his peak. View him as a No. 4 Fantasy guard going into the season with the ability and upside to grow into more. Buy Low: G Jerry Stackhouse His stock is low and we are seeing him go in the very late rounds of Fantasy drafts and even undrafted in many leagues. That shouldn't be. He's never averaged less than double digits in scoring and can produce steady numbers in his role off the Mavs' bench. Buyer Beware: F Dirk Nowitzki Calm down. He's still a Fantasy stud. You just need to realize that he's no longer eligible at center and won't be picking that position back up anytime soon. That's all. You'll just have to live with him as the second best overall forward in Fantasy. Tough luck.
	Breakout Alert: G Chucky Atkins It's rare you'll ever see a 33-year-old pegged as a possible breakout, but the situation for him in Denver could create just the right environment for that to happen. He'll be the starting point guard for the Nuggets and the veteran should mesh well with the likes of Allen Iverson and will feed the ball plenty to Carmelo Anthony. Buy Low: F Kenyon Martin People are forgetting about Martin and who can blame them? He hasn't been healthy since 2004. He is healthy heading into the season, however, and if he is ready to go, he should start at power forward. He will fall to you in the late rounds as a reserve and could end up being a quality No. 3 forward this season. Buyer Beware: F/C Nene If K-Mart is back and healthy, that doesn't bode well for Nene. Last season, he started 42 games and set career-high marks with 12.2 points and 7.0 rebounds. There won't be much room for him to repeat -- let alone improve -- those numbers this season unless K-Mart suffers yet another setback. We'd stay away from him until the late rounds.
	Breakout Alert: F Matt Barnes Barnes carved himself a nice niche last season as the team's sixth man and ended up averaging 9.8 ppg with 4.6 rpg. In his second season under Don Nelson, we expect him to ramp up into the double-digit range with a chance to emerge into a regular Fantasy starter this season. Buy Low: F Brandan Wright, G Marco Belinelli The rookie has excellent wingspan and is a pure athlete, making him tough around the rim. He's also a very good shooter from mid-range. He fits Don Nelson's style perfectly because he is very good at running the floor. He's worth a late-round flier in drafts and is a solid addition in keeper formats. Belinelli is an Italian sharpshooter who can create his own shot with a super-quick release. He can play either guard position and should thrive in the Warriors' up-tempo scheme. He should see regular minutes as a rookie and will be worth a late-round pick as a real sleeper. Buyer Beware: G Stephen Jackson He'll be suspended for the first seven games of the season due to some of the off-the-court issues that drove the Pacers to trade him last season. He can be a bit of a headache to own at times and the numbers he put up last season could lure Fantasy owners to draft him in the middle rounds as a No. 3 forward or guard. That's not such a bad thing, but he tends to disappear at times during the season and should be backed up accordingly.
	Breakout Potential: F Chuck Hayes Hayes played well last year when he started alongside Yao Ming, allowing the Rockets to trade Juwan Howard to Minnesota. The Rockets like his ability to rebound and defend, and he's expected to continue improving in his third season. View him as a No. 4 Fantasy forward going in. In leagues that use individual positions, he can be used as a No. 2 or 3 power forward. He will, however, have to fight off Houston's 'Buy Low' candidate. Buy Low: F Luis Scola The MVP of this summer's FIBA Americas Tournament will battle Hayes for minutes and could end up winning them in the end. He's been a beast for the Argentine national team and was part of their gold medal team from 2004. He's a solid rebounder and would mix well with Yao Ming down low. He's a very solid sleeper. Buyer Beware: G Rafer Alston He's been dealing with off-the-court issues that he claims have been taken way out of context, but that's not the only reason to be worried about Alston. He's going to be competing for minutes with Mike James and Steve Francis and is a candidate to see his already mediocre numbers dip.
	Breakout Alert: G/F Corey Maggette The injury to Elton Brand will have the Clippers looking to someone to step up and replace the big scoring void. He's the team's best perimeter scorer and will get more touches than ever. Look for him to emerge into a No. 2 Fantasy forward this season. Buy Low: G Brevin Knight, F Al Thornton, F Tim Thomas With the Clippers' point guard situation in shambles due to the devastating knee injury to Shaun Livingston, the team went out and signed Knight. He's an assist machine who became obsolete in Charlotte due to the emergence of Raymond Felton. He'll be a lot more useful in L.A. Thornton and Thomas also figure to benefit from the absence of Brand and more minutes and touches make them low risk/high reward sleepers. Buyer Beware: G Sam Cassell His best days are well behind him and he's an injury risk heading into his 15th NBA season. The presence of Brevin Knight will allow the team to wean themselves off Cassell over the course of the season.
	Breakout Alert: F Luke Walton He enjoyed his best NBA season in 2006-07, but injuries slowed him a bit toward the end of the year. He can put up solid numbers in points, rebounds and assists and should be in for his best season yet. Buy Low: G Derek Fisher The veteran guard certainly has his priorities in order, asking out of his contract in Utah so he can tend to his ailing daughter. Back in Los Angeles, he'll provide the team with a short-term answer to a long-term problem that has been there since the first time he left. He should be viewed as a reserve that can be useful as a solid stopgap during the season. Buyer Beware: C Andrew Bynum Fantasy owners have been waiting for Bynum to emerge into the next Shaq, but have been disappointed in each of his first two seasons. It isn't all Bynum's fault, however. He's only going to be 20 this season and is still developing both physically and mentally. That development isn't going to come all at once, just ask Kobe Bryant. Bryant was so upset at the Lakers for not trading Bynum for Jason Kidd last season that he himself asked to be traded this offseason.
	Breakout Alert: G Rudy Gay As a rookie, he was able to prove that he'll be a big factor in this league. He averaged double-digits as a rookie and was a monster in the second half. If he carries that momentum into his sophomore season, he'll leave his rookie numbers in the dust. Consider him a No. 3 guard with excellent upside. Buy Low: F/C Darko Milicic, G Mike Conley, Jr. Darko comes to Memphis after two mediocre seasons in Orlando and a failed stint in Detroit. He had a good playoff run last year, averaging 12.3 points and 4.5 rebounds in four games against Detroit, and he's hopeful to live up to his potential with the Grizzlies, where he is expected to man the center spot. He could pick up center eligibility in leagues that have that option. Conley has a chance to contribute as a rookie as he'll have a chance to start. Anyone who saw him in the NCAA Tournament last season with Ohio State knows he'll be worth at least a late-round pick in Fantasy drafts. Buyer Beware: F Mike Miller His best offensive season might have been a bit of a mirage. He never averaged more than 15 points in the NBA prior to averaging 18.4 ppg in his seventh NBA season. We think last season was more the exception and not the rule.
	Breakout Alert: F/C Al Jefferson Jefferson emerged last year as a quality option at forward and center in Boston, and there's no reason to think he won't do even better in Minnesota. He will benefit from being one of the focal points for the Wolves and is a player that finished the season strong by averaging 19.7 points and 11.2 rebounds in March and 22.3 points and 10.3 rebounds in April. He will look to build on that with his new team. Consider him a No. 1 center option, but a No. 2 forward for now. He could evolve into a No. 1 there, too. Buy Low: G Randy Foye Projected to be the starting point guard, the NBA sophomore should be in for a big jump in assist totals, and his scoring should increase with the added minutes as well. He's more of a scorer than a true point guard, but he's developing as he goes. This season will be a true test for him. View him as a No. 3 guard going into the season with the potential to grow into a No. 2. You should be able to pick him up in rounds 7-10 at a good price. Buyer Beware: C Mark Blount A career season in 2006-07 could make him a very attractive Fantasy center option, but consider the fact that he'll be playing alongside Jefferson in the paint now and not Kevin Garnett. Garnett demanded much more defensive attention and left Blount in good spots all season == not to mention that Garnett is a far better passer than Jefferson.
	Breakout Alert: G/F Morris Peterson He was sought after by several teams when he became a free agent in the offseason, but decided to sign with the Hornets where he'll see an increased role. He has dual-eligibility going into the season and could see a repeat of his 2006 numbers (16.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg). Buy Low: G/F Peja Stojakovic We are seeing him go around rounds 10-12 in drafts and that could be thought of as a steal if he proves to be healthy for even two thirds of the season. Injuries have plagued him over the past few seasons, but the former NBA star should be plenty rested to make a comeback of sorts in 2007-08. He is still a pure scorer when healthy. Buyer Beware: F David West He only played in 52 games last year due to injury but still averaged 18.3 points and 8.2 rebounds. He has never played a full season and has to be backed up with a player you wouldn't mind starting in his place for a good chunk of the season.
	Breakout Alert: F Boris Diaw He had a breakout season in 2005-06 with Amare Stoudemire only able to play three games. He manned the low post for the Suns and jumped onto the Fantasy scene with a 13.3 ppg average, 6.9 rpg, 6.2 apg and 1.1 bpg. Then, when Stoudemire returned last season, Diaw never looked comfortable in a roll where he was no longer prominently featured. Well, the Suns say they are actively going to try to get him more looks on the offensive end and are going to encourage him not to defer as much as he did last season. That could mean a return to prominence in Fantasy leagues this season. Buy Low: F/G Grant Hill He's not needed to carry a team on his shoulders anymore and he'll be an excellent addition to a Phoenix team that needs a skilled finisher off the bench in the frontcourt. He became more of a guard toward the end in Orlando, but will go back to playing the three in Phoenix. That means he could regain the forward eligibility he lost last season. In leagues that have in-season positional eligibility changes. View him as a No. 3 or 4 option at either position entering the season. You can have him very late in drafts. Buyer Beware: C Amare Stoudemire Stoudemire is coming off another surgery to his knee and that has to be at least a little troubling, even if he isn't slated to miss any regular season time. He remains an elite Fantasy center, but the shaky knees are a bit worrying.
	Breakout Alert: F LaMarcus Aldridge The Blazers' moves to trade Zach Randolph to New York and the injury to Greg Oden have created a starting spot for Aldridge, who had a mediocre rookie season last year. He averaged 9.0 points and 5.0 rebounds, but should improve greatly upon those numbers this year as he gets more playing time. Buy Low: G Jarrett Jack Often overlooked, he'll be the engine that drives the young Portland squad from the backcourt. He posted a semi-breakout year in his sophomore season, but the best is yet to come. Consider him a solid No. 3 guard entering the season with nice upside. Buyer Beware: G Brandon Roy The heel injury that forced him to miss 20 games last season is back and it will force him to sit out the entire preseason. We still expect him to be the go-to guy in Portland now with Zach Randolph in New York and Greg Oden down for the season, but you should back him up with a guard you wouldn't be afraid to use for a good chunk of the season.
	Breakout Alert: G Kevin Martin He should be the team's leading scorer again and we don't consider him a one-hit wonder. He posted a breakout season in his third NBA year and elevated his game to become a regular 20-point scorer. He led the team in scoring and is now considered the go-to guy in Sacramento. His great outside touch and ability to drive to the basket make him tough to handle. He's a No. 2 guard that could evolve into a No. 1 this season. Buy Low: C Brad Miller The word "bust" was thrown around by his owners last season, but he's a solid value as a No. 2 center if you believe he's in for a bounce-back year like we do. He had a bad season as he battled several nagging injuries. He only played in 63 games and his scoring and rebounding dropped off from the previous year. Expect him to bounce back and have a solid year if he can remain healthy. He's a low-end No. 1 center in Fantasy play, but should be viewed as a great No. 2 option. Buyer Beware: F Mikki Moore Moore signed with Sacramento after a successful stint in New Jersey last season where he finally made a name for himself. The career journeyman averaged 9.8 points and 5.1 rebounds during the regular season but improved to 11.3 points and 5.6 rebounds during the playoffs. Moore will compete with Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Kenny Thomas for playing time this season and will likely come off the bench. View him as a fourth option going in -- at best -- and don't get caught up on the nice year he had last season.
	Breakout Alert: G Tony Parker The NBA Finals MVP continues to improve, and he could be peaking this season. He has seen his scoring numbers rise to about 18 ppg each of the last two seasons. A career season for him could propel him to No. 1 Fantasy guard status. Buy Low: C Fabricio Oberto The Argentine big man is a high-intensity player who would benefit greatly from more regular playing time. He still splits time with Francisco Elson and Robert Horry, but is a favorite of head coach Gregg Popovich and could end up winning a bigger role as the team's regular center. He's worth a flier in the late rounds and could be a steal. Buyer Beware: F Bruce Bowen More experienced Fantasy hoops players likely already know this, but the fact that Bowen is a starter on a championship team and is known as one of the better defenders in the NBA means very little for his Fantasy appeal. He averaged just 6.2 ppg and 2.7 rpg last season and those numbers figure to be the best he can produce this season.
	Breakout Alert: F Kevin Durant We expect the second overall pick in the draft to be the best Fantasy rookie this season. He's in a position to be the go-to guy. His versatility will allow the Sonics to play the 6-9 future superstar in the backcourt and he could pick up dual eligibility very early in the season. He can score while also using his length to block shots and rebound. Consider him a No. 3 forward going in with the ability to evolve into a No. 2 in-season. Buy Low: F Jeff Green, G Wally Szczerbiak Green will fit well as a rookie alongside fellow first-rounder Durant. In keeper leagues, he's a must-own. In seasonal play, we recommend investing a late-to-middle round pick on him as a Fantasy reserve who may end up being a regular in your Fantasy rotation. And after a miserable season in Boston in which injuries and losing took a large toll, Szczerbiak will now be a veteran presence on a team building for the future. He's an apt scorer who can be relied upon heavily at times. Consider him a No. 4 guard with some upside if he can stay healthy. Buyer Beware: G Luke Ridnour, F/C Nick Collison Ridnour will have to battle new acquisition Delonte West for minutes and already saw Earl Watson take some of his playing time last season. Collison is also dealing with a crowd at his position. With Chris Wilcox and Kurt Thomas around, it will be hard for Collison to follow up on his breakout campaign from last season.
	Breakout Alert: G Deron Williams One of the best young point guards in the NBA, Williams is only going to keep improving. He broke out already in his sophomore season, but his numbers could actually keep climbing. He was among the league leaders in assists and figures to be a fixture there as long as Jerry Sloan remains the head coach. He's also a developing scoring threat. He's worth selecting as a No. 1 guard in all formats. Buy Low: F/C Paul Millsap He will remain the backup power forward in Utah next year behind Carlos Boozer, but played well enough last year to earn increased playing time. He averaged 6.8 points and 5.2 rebounds in 18 minutes per game last season. Those stats should increase. Consider him a late-round sleeper option in Fantasy drafts. Buyer Beware: F Andrei Kirilenko A disastrous season in 2006-07 is the reason for a big drop in AK-47's Fantasy appeal. Now, he's unhappy with his role and has even threatened to go play in Russia. Don't expect him to ever return to being a must-start Fantasy option again while in Utah.

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