Conference USA Fantasy Preview

Conference USA might not be a BCS conference, but they shouldn't be overlooked in Fantasy circles. With weak defenses throughout the conference, you can find good Fantasy value in C-USA.

Conference USA features five of the nation's top Fantasy quarterbacks in Case Keenum, Dominique Davis, G.J. Kinne, Austin Davis and Kyle Padron. Of course where there are good quarterbacks, there must be guys on the receiving end. Damaris Johnson, Patrick Edwards and Tyron Carrier are some of the nation's fastest receivers and will give opposing cornerbacks fits. The conference's prolific passing offenses are a huge draw for Fantasy owners and a nightmare for defensive coordinators.

Note that all of the quarterbacks mentioned above are seniors, so this could be the last year we see such explosiveness from the conference. It's time to get in while the getting is good.

Central Florida
2010 Record: 11-3
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 30th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 7th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/4
Significant losses: WR Jamar Newsome, WR Brian Watters, WR Kamar Aiken
Newcomer of Note: Not a newcomer, but running back Brynn Harvey should be back after sitting out last fall with a knee injury.

2011 Thoughts: As true freshman, quarterback Jeff Godfrey passed for 2,159 yards and rushed for another 566 yards. Now that the job is firmly his, look for those numbers to grow this fall. He's dynamic player and future top quarterback in the conference. However, since he's only in his second year, Godfrey holds more value in keeper leagues.

The Knights will need to replace starters at receiver, but A.J. Guyton and Quincy McDuffie have plenty of experience. The passing game probably won't do enough to support a Fantasy wideout, however.

There is plenty of depth at running back with Latavius Murray, Ronnie Weaver and the return of Harvey. The Knights are poised to make a run at the C-USA title.

Final Analysis: The running back situation is too messy to mess with on Draft Day. Also, be careful of being lured in if one of the three has a big game; it may not translate to the following week.

The Fantasy option for the Knights is Godfrey.

East Carolina
2010 Record: 6-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 15th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 119th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 6/7
Significant losses: WR Dwayne Harris, RB Jonathan Williams
Newcomer of Note: If he qualifies, running back Chevelle Buie could flourish in this wide-open offense.

2011 Thoughts: ECU quickly became a Fantasy goldmine last fall, and with quarterback Dominique Davis returning, it should be more of the same in 2011. Davis was one of the top Fantasy quarterbacks in the country last fall with 46 touchdowns (nine rushing). He's sure to be a high first-round pick in Fantasy drafts this fall.

With the loss of Harris, Lance Lewis will be the focal point in the passing game. Don't look for a huge bump in numbers as he's pretty close to his celling already. The big benefactors will be Michael Bowman, Andrew Bodenheimer and Justin Jones. Bowman has been suspended for the opener, but look for him to emerge as team's second leading receiver when he comes back.

The running back situation is less clear with several candidates jockeying for the starting spot. Michael Dodson will likely be the starter, but probably won't see enough carries to get Fantasy consideration.

Final Analysis: The non-conference schedule is brutal. The Pirates face off against South Carolina, Virginia Tech and North Carolina in the early part of the season. Keep in mind Davis threw five interceptions against just two touchdown passes against the Hokies and Tar Heels last fall. With a full year to work out the bugs of their offense, the Pirates should fare better against these teams this year, but it is still a concern.

The decision to start Davis during this stretch is going to be a tough one for Fantasy owners. And there is also a greater risk of injury playing against the big boys. If Davis & Co. can make it through this stretch unscathed, the Pirates offense will once again explode when the conference schedule kicks into gear.

Houston
2010 Record: 5-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 13th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 96th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 6/6
Significant losses: WR James Cleveland, WR Kierrie Johnson
Newcomer of Note: Running back Charles Sims missed all of 2010 due to academics. He wasn't on the spring roster, but he should be back this fall.

2011 Thoughts: Whether it was because of the loss of offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen or quarterback Case Keenum, the Cougars offense was more conservative last fall than their previous two seasons. In a nutshell, the Cougs ran the ball more and scored less. With Keenum back, we should see renewed emphasis on the passing game.

Both Tyron Carrier and Patrick Edwards are going for their third 1,000-yard receiving seasons. As long as they both stay healthy, odds are they will get it. E.J. Smith and Justin Johnson will fill the other two starting receiving spots.

The backfield is deep and talented, especially if Sims returns. Bryce Beall, Michael Hayes and Sims all have the ability to start, but there simply aren't enough carries to go around.

Final Analysis: Will we see the Houston offense of 2008 and 2009 in 2011? Doubtful, but it should still be one top offensive units in the country as the Cougars get back to their passing roots with Keenem back calling the shots. Don't be afraid to take a flier on a guy like Smith or Johnson. But avoid the running back situation at all costs on Draft Day.

Marshall
2010 Record: 5-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 101st
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 74th
Base Offense: Single back
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 6/6
Significant losses: QB Brian Anderson
Newcomer of Note: Freshman receiver Conelius Jones could see early playing time.

2011 Thoughts: The Herd have plenty of work to do offensively. Marshall ranked 101st in scoring and 103rd in total offense last fall.

The Herd used a committee approach at running back last season with Martin Ward, Andre Booker and Tron Martinez, and this should continue in 2011.

There is plenty of reason for encouragement with the talent returning at running back and receiver. However, they do need to find a new starting quarterback and have holes to fill along the offensive line.

Final Analysis: The committee approach at running back and a new starter at quarterback make Marshall a team to avoid.

Memphis
2010 Record: 1-11
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 119th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 117th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/7
Significant losses: RB Gregory Ray, QB Ryan Williams
Newcomer of Note: Junior college running back Jamere Valentine will push for carries this fall.

2011 Thoughts: With Gregory Ray graduating, the starting running back job will go to Jerrell Rhodes. Don't be surprised if Rhodes becomes a workhorse back that sees 20 carries a game. However, offensive line woes will keep his yards per carry down.

Quarterback Ryan Williams opted to transfer to Miami in the offseason, leaving the starting job for Andy Summerlin. Summerlin will have veteran wideouts Marcus Rucker and Billy Foster to throw to on a weekly basis. Rucker is the offense's top weapon, catching 41 passes for 704 yards and eight scores last fall.

Final Analysis: Rhodes is an option late in the draft if you're running out of choices. He has some upside, but he is far from a sure thing. The rest of the offense still needs some work.

Rice
2010 Record: 4-8
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 52nd
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 114th
Base Offense: Hybrid
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/7
Significant losses: WR Patrick Randolph
Newcomer of Note: Receiver Mario Hull redshirted last fall and is a change of pace from the big tight end/receivers that the Owls will strut out on the field this fall.

2011 Thoughts: Running back Sam McGuffie found the perfect offense to fits his talents. McGuffie touched the ball an average of 19.6 times per game. Because many of those touches came as a receiver out of the backfield, he was able to lessen the wear and tear on his body. If he can continue to show the durability he did last fall, he'll be the Owls' top offensive threat.

Quarterback Taylor McHargue has the potential to break out in 2011. Taking over the starting role at the end of last season, McHargue showed off his wheels by rushing for 155 in the final two games of the season.

Is there such thing as having too many tight ends? If so, Rice would be guilty as charged. Frequently the Owls will lineup with Vance McDonald, Luke Wilson and former quarterback Taylor Cook on the field at the same time. Each is bigger than 6-5 and 230 pounds, and all are freakishly athletic for their size. McDonald spent time split out wide this spring in an effort to create room, but he's still listed as a tight end on Rice's official roster.

Final Analysis: With the quarterback situation settled, look for the Owls to rise in the offensive rankings. This has the making of being a Top-30 offense in 2011. McHargue, McGuffie and any one of the three tight ends are late-round Fantasy options on Draft Day. Though watch out for a tough non-conference schedule.

SMU
2010 Record: 7-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 74th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 59th
Base Offense: Run and Shoot
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 10/8
Significant losses: WR Aldrick Robinson, K Matt Szymanski
Newcomer of Note: If something should happen to running back Zach Line, freshman K.C. Nlemchi could be thrust into early action.

2011 Thoughts: The loss of Robinson opens the door for another receiver to step up. Cole Beasley has the most experience and will provide quarterback Kyle Padron with a steady option to throw to this fall. The potential breakout star is Darius Johnson. He was a bit rough around the edges last fall, but he should be improved. Both will line up as slot receivers and give opposing linebackers fits.

Padron and Line are about as consistent as they come. Pair them up together and you are guaranteed Fantasy production each and every week. Texas A&M better be on upset alert in the season opener.

Final Analysis: With Padron, Line and Robinson it is pretty strange to think that SMU was only ranked 74th in the country last year in scoring offense. Playing against wickedly bad C-USA defenses and with plenty of experience returning, it should be a Top 20 offense in 2011. Load up on the Mustangs.

Southern Miss
2010 Record: 8-5
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 15th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 81st
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/7
Significant losses: QB Martevious Young, RB V.J. Floyd, WR Johdrick Morris, WR DeAndre Brown
Newcomer of Note: This is a veteran group so playing time for youngsters will be limited, but keep an eye on incoming receiver Jhyryn Taylor.

2011 Thoughts: Despite the losses noted above, the offense is loaded. It all starts with quarterback Austin Davis, who will be going on his fourth year as the starter. Throw out the injury-plagued sophomore season and Davis has been a consistent performer, throwing for over 3,000 yards and rushing for nearly 500 yards in his freshman and junior campaigns. There is plenty of talent returning for him to repeat those numbers in 2011.

The receiving corps may actually be better without DeAndre Brown. He became as distraction last fall with the weekly "will he or won't play on Saturday" thing. If you are looking for a breakout performer of the group, look no further than Kelvin Bolden. He has the potential to be a week-in and week-out Fantasy producer.

The running back spot is a little clearer than last year with Kendrick Hardy stepping up his game late last fall. He'll still have to share carries with Desmond Johnson, but he should see the bulk of the touches.

Final Analysis: The Eagles should continue to improve on offense, especially in the ground game. Davis is a top Fantasy pick. Bolden and Hardy are also worthy of mid-to-late round picks on Draft Day.

Tulane
2010 Record: 4-8
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 80th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 113th
Base Offense: Pro style
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/7
Significant losses: TE Cody Sparks, WR Casey Robottom, WR D.J. Banks
Newcomer of Note: Running back Dante' Butler will spell Orleans Darkwa this fall.

2011 Thoughts: Darkwa teased us in the season opener last fall with 75 yards rushing and three scores. An elbow injury forced him to the sidelines for the better part of the next five games. By Week 8, he was back and tore off five straight 100-yard rushing performances. During the last six games of the season, Darkwa averaged 24.3 carries and 125.3 yards per game. That is the definition of a workhorse.

Ryan Griffin will once again start at quarterback; however they must replace their top three pass catchers from last fall. If the passing game struggles, teams will be able to key on Darkwa. Ryan Grant and former quarterback Joe Kemp have big shoes to fill.

Final Analysis: As long as he stays healthy, Darkwa will push for 1,500 yards rushing this fall. The passing game looks like a concern, however.

Tulsa
2010 Record: 10-3
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 6th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 85th
Base Offense: Hybrid spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 8/8
Significant losses: RB Charles Clay, WR Trae Johnson
Newcomer of Note: The Golden Hurricanes have a few holes to fill at receiver and incoming freshman Keyarris Garrett is one of the top recruits in the 2011 class.

2011 Thoughts: The Todd Graham era is over and the big question is will the offense miss a beat? New head coach Bill Blakenship vows to keep the offensive juggernaut churning. That shouldn't be too hard with quarterback G.J. Kinne and receiver Damaris Johnson back this fall. Kinne shook off a rough 2009 campaign and lived up to expectations in 2010.

Johnson is one of the top playmakers in the country. He led the nation in all-purpose yards in 2010 with 202.2 per game. Someone will need to step up and provide Kinne with a second go-to option. Thomas Roberson and Ricky Johnson will need to step up their game and provide Kinne with secondary options this season.

If there is one area that could use improvement it is running back. They have yet to find a go-to back and as many as five backs will see carries.

Final Analysis: Kinne and Johnson are obvious early-round selections. But be weary of a tough non-conference schedule that includes Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State.

UAB
2010 Record: 4-8
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 66th
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 95th
Base Offense: Spread
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 7/8
Significant losses: TE Jeffery Anderson, WR Frantrell Forrest, WR Mike Jones, QB David Isabelle
Newcomer of Note: Georgia transfer Dontavious Jackson will provide quality backup minutes at running back. Or worse, he could steal carries from Pat Shed.

2011 Thoughts: The question on whether Isabelle could throw was answered pretty quickly last fall, and the answer was no. Enter Bryan Ellis, who quickly established himself as a passing threat. Ellis threw three or more touchdown passes in five of his last seven games. He'll continue to improve this fall with more time under center.

Do-everything running back Shed is back, giving the Blazers a deadly one-two punch. Shed is especially dangerous out of the backfield, catching 47 passes for 471 yards and four scores last fall. He holds extra value in PPR leagues.

Final Analysis: UAB's offensive explosion at the end of the season can be a bit deceiving. Keep in mind the Blazers closed out the season against the likes of East Carolina, Memphis and Rice -- teams that ranked 120th, 115th and 107th respectively in scoring defense. Of course, there are plenty of bad defenses in the C-USA for Shed and Ellis to feast on once again, but be careful of games against Florida, Mississippi State and Central Florida.

UTEP
2010 Record: 6-7
2010 Offensive Rank (out of 120): 71st
2010 Defensive Rank (out of 120): 66th
Base Offense: Single back
Returning Starters (Offense/Defense): 2/8
Significant losses: QB Trevor Vittatoe, RB Donald Buckram, WR Kris Adams
Newcomer of Note: Junior college transfer quarterback Nick Lamaison exited spring as the front-runner for the starting job.

2011 Thoughts: Coach Mike Price will have his work cut out for him this fall. Gone are four-year starter Trevor Vittatoe, three-year starter Kris Adams and one-year wonder Donald Buckram.

The Miners only return two offensive starters from last year's squad -- the lowest total in of all the FBS teams. To say this year will be a rebuilding year is an understatement. The problem is Price may not be given time to see it through. He'll be on the hot seat from the season opener.

Final Analysis: Stay away. With only two returning starters and losing four-year starter at quarterback, there are simply too many unknowns for the Miners.