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The headline is going to say "Busts 1.0" because that's the topic. But I'm not sure it's fair to call these guys busts -- yet.
My definition of a bust is a player's value relative to his cost. And we're a long ways away from a good representation of average draft position data, which likely won't happen until August.
With that in mind, I'd rather label these players as guys I don't plan to draft this season. I'm factoring in expected ADP -- and age, mostly -- but things could change as we see what develops with free agency and the NFL Draft.
You can choose to avoid these eight players as well. Or these might be players you covet if the price is right. We'll find out in the next few months. But, for now, these are guys I plan to pass on in my Fantasy leagues in 2025.
Barkley was the No. 1 running back last season at 22.2 PPR points per game, and he will likely be drafted in the first five overall picks. I'll rank him as a first-round player, but I expect his production to decline in 2025. He had 345 carries for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns and 33 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns on 43 targets in the regular season. Tack on 91 carries for 499 yards and five touchdowns and 13 catches for 75 yards on 15 targets in the playoffs, and we're talking about a lot of mileage (436 carries and 482 total touches) for a 28-year-old running back. Along with that, the history of 2,000-yard rushers the following season isn't ideal. Of the eight who have previously accomplished this feat in NFL history -- O.J. Simpson (1973), Eric Dickerson (1984), Barry Sanders (1997), Terrell Davis (1998), Jamal Lewis (2003), Chris Johnson (2009), Adrian Peterson (2012) and Derrick Henry (2020) -- two suffered serious injuries the next season in Davis and Henry. All of them declined in production by at least 562 rushing yards, with six of them dropping 871 rushing yards or more. As you can see, Barkley makes me nervous, and the earliest I would draft him is the back half of Round 1.
Conner was fantastic in 2024, and he averaged 15.9 PPR points per game. He set career highs in carries (236) and rushing yards (1,094) while adding eight rushing touchdowns, along with 47 catches, 414 yards, and two touchdowns on 55 targets. He also played a career-best 16 games. But Conner turns 30 in May, and that's a concern, especially given his injury history. Prior to 2024, he had missed at least three games in five of the previous six seasons. It's great that the Cardinals gave him a two-year, $19 million extension in November, and hopefully, he doesn't get injured next season. Second-year running back Trey Benson could be more of a factor in 2025, and Conner's ADP will likely determine if I'll totally avoid him or not. But if he's expected to be drafted in the first five rounds then I'll likely pass on Conner in most leagues due to his age.
Jones is a free agent this offseason, so first, we have to see where he plays in 2025 before there's a final determination on his Fantasy value. But there's a strong chance he'll return to the Vikings, and I'll be nervous to draft him, especially if he's selected in the first five rounds. He turned 30 in December, and Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell has already said if Jones returns then he wants to give him less work. "For the better part of his career, he had kind of been a part of backfield committees, but for the most part, Aaron Jones was the feature back," O'Connell told SiriusXM via ESPN. "So I would love to have Aaron back. And then we just continue to grow in that room, whether it's infusing a young player in the draft or maybe another player in free agency alongside Aaron Jones, hopefully." Jones set career highs in touches (306), carries (255), and offensive snaps (700) in his first season with the Vikings. He played all 18 games with the playoffs, even while nursing hip, rib, and quadriceps injuries, and had the most rushing yards (1,138) and second-most yards from scrimmage (1,546) in his career. He averaged 14.7 PPR points per game. It was great, but I'm skeptical of him repeating that performance in 2025 -- no matter where he plays.
It's hard to make a strong case against Evans, who just had another outstanding season in 2024 at 17.2 PPR points per game. He had his 11th season in a row with at least 1,000 receiving yards (1,004) and scored double digits in touchdowns (11) for the sixth time in his career. But my concern with Evans is his age since he turns 32 in August. We could finally start to see Evans fail to deliver on his consistent production, and keep in mind he missed four games in 2024 with an injured hamstring. Tampa Bay could also bring back free agent Chris Godwin, and with the emergence of Jalen McMillan, this might be a crowded receiving corps, which could limit Evans' targets. Before Godwin was lost for the season with an ankle injury in Week 7, Evans was averaging just 14.3 PPR points per game. That's solid production, but it's not elite. And Evans will likely be drafted in the first three rounds in the majority of leagues. If that's his ADP then I will pass on Evans in 2025.
We don't know where Adams will play in 2025, and hopefully, he can follow Aaron Rodgers to a new team. Playing with Rodgers might be the best thing for Adams at this point. Last season, after joining the Jets, Adams looked like a star again. He closed the year with at least 17.6 PPR points in five of his final six outings, including three games with at least 20.8 PPR points over that span. Rodgers was leaning on Adams a lot with at least 11 targets in five of those games, and those two have an amazing rapport. Now, Adams could still play well if he ends up with an elite quarterback not named Rodgers, but Adams turned 32 in December. The decline is on the horizon, and I'm not drafting Adams if he's being selected in the first five rounds in the majority of leagues. Prior to joining the Jets, Adams averaged 14.9 PPR points per game in three games with the Raiders. That would make him good, not great, but I would lower expectations for him in 2025 depending on where he plays.
Samuel was traded from the 49ers to the Commanders for just a fifth-round pick, and it felt like San Francisco just gave him away to save money. It's a good landing spot for Samuel, but we'll see if he has anything left to offer in Fantasy and reality. Samuel struggled in 2024 with a career-low 10.2 PPR points per game. He only had 51 catches for 670 yards and three touchdowns and 42 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown in 15 games. This despite Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk dealing with serious injuries and missing most of the season, but Samuel failed to step up. Maybe a fresh start with Washington will help Samuel, and he should play a vital role for Jayden Daniels, opposite Terry McLaurin. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should find creative ways to use Samuel, and he could be a factor out of the backfield as well. But I'm still skeptical of Samuel returning to elite status, especially at 29. The earliest I would probably draft Samuel is Round 7, but I expect him to be off the board before then since there should be plenty of hype based on his new team.
Kupp is expected to leave the Rams this offseason, and we'll see where he ends up in 2025. But he turns 32 in June, and it appears like his best days are behind him. He disappeared at the end of last season with a combined 10 catches for 143 yards and no touchdowns on 17 targets in his final five games, including the playoffs. Health was again a problem for Kupp in 2024 as he missed four games with an ankle injury, and he hasn't played a full season since 2021. A new team can still bring hope and optimism for Kupp, especially with the right quarterback. But part of his allure was playing with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, and Kupp thrived in the Rams offense. I can see Kupp being overdrafted once he ends up with a new team, but the earliest I would draft him is Round 8 in the majority of leagues. I would only consider Kupp as a high-end reserve in 2025.
Kelce is expected to return in 2025, and Fantasy managers will likely still consider him as a high-end No. 1 tight end. I won't be that optimistic, and I would only draft Kelce as a low-end starter in most leagues. He struggled in 2024 with 12.2 PPR points per game, which was his worst season since 2015. He still managed 97 catches for 823 yards on 133 targets, but he scored a career-low three touchdowns. Kelce turns 36 in October, and he struggled to separate from defenders in 2024, which isn't likely to improve. The Chiefs also could have a crowded receiving corps with Rashee Rice (knee) back and the emergence of Xavier Worthy, along with Marquise Brown potentially returning as a free agent. Kelce will still play a prominent role for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but the earliest I would draft Kelce is Round 8 in most formats. Kelce should still be good, but he's no longer an elite Fantasy tight end heading into 2025.
