When you're at pick two or pick 11, there's another piece of strategy that comes into play: knowing what the person on your end of the draft is going to do. I failed miserably at this in the draft below, at least in Round 1, and it's possible I will pay for it. When it was my turn to draft both Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs were atop my ranking list, but I wrongly assumed Dave Richard would not start his draft with a pair of running backs.
I took Puka Nacua, thinking I would get a top-six running back one way or another and Dave proceeded to draft both backs. As it turned out, because Rachaad White fell to the end of Round 3, I am okay with the fact that I started with a pair of wide receivers, and thrilled to be starting two of my top nine pass catchers. Still, it's quite possible I'll regret missing out on Gibbs or Taylor.
All of this is to say, you should be trying to strategically draft around the person at the end of the draft, particularly if they have already filled a onesie position, just make sure you know your draftmates better than I did here.
Here's my squad from the fifth pick:
1.11: Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
2.02. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
3.11: Rachaad White, RB, TB
4.02: Michael Pittman, WR, IND
5:11: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
6.02: George Kittle, TE, SF
7.11: Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT
8.02: Kyler Murray, QB, ARI
9.11: Josh Palmer, WR, LAC
10.02: Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA
11.11: Demario Douglas, WR, NE
12.02: Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, NE
13.11: Antonio Gibson, RB, NE
14.02: Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAC
Landing Michael Pittman in Round 4 actually gave me four of my top 12 wide receivers in full PPR, and I didn't completely sacrifice at RB1 to do it, Rachaad White ranks as my No. 10 back in this format. Where I did sacrifice was in not getting an elite quarterback or tight end. Instead, I drafted two of my favorite players just outside of that tier.
George Kittle has finished as a top-five tight end for three straight seasons and has TE1 overall contingent upside if something happens to Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel. Kyler Murray has been a top-12 QB per game each of the past four seasons on a per-game basis, but he has flashed some elite upside when playing with a true No. 1 wide receiver. I believe Marvin Harrison Jr. is that guy, if I am right then pairing them up together should make for some enormous spike weeks. If I'm wrong, this team is in a lot of trouble.
I did back Murray up with Trevor Lawrence, so I don't have any real floor concerns at quarterback. I'm well-covered in that regard at running back as well, with three of my top 24 backs and Zach Charbonnet and Antonio Gibson providing depth. Where my depth may be in trouble is at wide receiver. Josh Palmer should be a weekly flex play, but I need one of Douglas or Polk to emerge as the WR1 of the Patriots if any of my top three wide receivers go down.
In full PPR, I actually prefer Warren to Najee Harris, who went one pick ahead of Warren in this draft. In your drafts, you may even find Warren later than this, he has a Round 9 ADP, while I have a Round 6 valuation of him. Arthur Smith's offense will be run-centric and will involve both backs, but Warren is better than Harris in the passing game, and in full PPR that makes a big difference. I project Warren as a top-24 back in this format with just 136 carries and only three rushing touchdowns. If he earns more on the ground than I am projecting he could be a league winner at cost.
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Outside of the fact that I guessed wrong on what Dave Richard was going to do, there is certainly some risk that Cooper Kupp is 100% all year long and reclaims his role as Matthew Stafford's WR1. Or Stafford could suffer another injury, or simply experience a drop in play at 36 years old. Or Jonathan Taylor of Jahmyr Gibbs could finish as RB1. There are a lot of ways drafting Nacua in Round 1 could make you feel regret in December, or sooner.
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Drafting a rookie wide receiver with the 14th pick overall is certainly a risk, but Harrison is exactly the kind of prospect in exactly the type of situation I am willing to take the risk. I expect him to hit the ground running, averaging eight or nine targets per game early in the year. In the second half of the year, I expect one of the most productive wide receivers in all of football. If that happens, he and Nacua could give me the best receiving corps in the league. But if he performs more like a typical rookie, I am in big trouble.
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