The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be held on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby 2025 will be the 151st Run for the Roses and the first leg of the horse racing Triple Crown. Journalism emerged as a legitimate contender on the 2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby, winning the Los Alamitos Futurity, San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby on his way to earning 122.5 qualifying points for a third-place finish in the standings. Michael McCarthy trains Journalism and was a Preakness Stakes winner with Rombauer in 2021, while Journalism was sired by 2007 Preakness Stakes winner Curlin. He's the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, followed by Sandman (8-1), Sovereignty (8-1), Tappan Street (10-1) and Rodriguez (10-1). Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez, even though he's one of the favorites. In fact, Demling says Rodriguez doesn't even hit the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Baffert has been a wizard throughout his career at Churchill Downs, winning six times officially and crossing the line in first with Medina Spirit in 2021. However, Medina Spirit failed a post-race drug test and was later stripped of the win. The incident also led to a three-year suspension for Baffert from the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.
Kentucky Derby 151 will mark Baffert's first trip back to the Kentucky Derby since the suspension was lifted and it's likely to be a media sideshow. More importantly for Rodriguez, his temperament and running style don't look like strong fits for the Kentucky Derby. The son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic is similarly immature to his sire, and Authentic benefitted from extra months of training before his September Derby win because of COVID-19. He's been at his best working from the front and he'll face competition for the early lead against a 20-horse field. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Sired by American Pharoah, who ended a 37-year Triple Crown drought in American horse racing in 2015 and then became the first horse in history to complete the American grand slam, Luxor Cafe was bred in Kentucky and trained in Japan.
Luxor Cafe qualified for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with wins in the Fukurya Stakes and Hyacinth Stakes, and now has four career victories in six starts. Trainer Noriyuki Hori is one of the best in Japan and will try to give the country another chance to win America's most prestigious race. Forever Young's third-place finish in last year's Kentucky Derby was the best ever for a Japanese horse and Luxor Cafe certainly has the pedigree to be in contention for the win in 2025. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who "has a legit shot." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Sandman | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Sovereignty | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Rodriguez | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Tappan Street | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Burnham Square | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Owen Almighty | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Publisher | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Admire Daytona | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Flood Zone | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Flying Mohawk | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
