The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) and the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) are slated to match up in a 2025 First Four contest on Tuesday. The Tar Heels narrowly made the tournament this year, as they were the last team to get selected. They ended the regular season with a 74-71 loss to Duke in the ACC Championship Game. In the meantime, San Diego State dropped two of its last three games. On March 13, Boise State beat the Aztecs 62-52 in the quarterfinals. The winner locks down the No. 11 seed and moves on to play the No. 6 seed Ole Miss on Friday.
Tipoff from the University of Dayton Arena is at 9:10 p.m. ET. The latest UNC vs. San Diego State odds via SportsLine consensus list the Tar Heels as 4.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 142.5. Before making any UNC vs. San Diego State picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has dialed in on UNC vs. San Diego State and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for UNC vs. San Diego State:
- UNC vs. San Diego State spread: Tar Heels -4.5
- UNC vs. San Diego State over/under: 142.5 points
- UNC vs. San Diego State money line: Tar Heels -207, Aztecs +170
- UNC vs. San Diego State picks: See picks at SportsLine
- UNC vs. San Diego State streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why North Carolina can cover
Senior guard RJ Davis is the Tar Heels' best shot creator, using his speed to get to his spots. Davis averages a team-high 17 points with 3.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. The New York native has scored 20-plus points in three of his last seven games. On March 13 against Wake Forest, Davis had 23 points, three rebounds and made five 3-pointers.
Junior guard Seth Trimble brings an athletic, downhill scorer to the backcourt for North Carolina. Trimble logs 11.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. The Wisconsin native has tallied double-digit points in five of the last seven games. In his last outing, Trimble had 14 points, four rebounds and two dimes. See which side to pick at SportsLine.
Why San Diego State can cover
Senior guard Nick Boyd is an athletic scorer who can facilitate. Boyd logs 13.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and four assists per game. The New York native has scored 15-plus points in eight of his last nine games. In the loss to Boise State, Boyd finished with 20 points, three assists and knocked down three 3-pointers.
Sophomore guard BJ Davis provides this team with an additional player in the backcourt who can create his own shot. Davis averages 9.0 points with 1.5 steals per game. The California native has tallied double-digit points in three of his last four games. On March 1 against Wyoming, Davis had 18 points, four rebounds and three steals. See which side to pick at SportsLine.
How to make North Carolina vs. San Diego State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over the total, predicting that the teams will combine for 144 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. See which side to back at SportsLine.
So who wins North Carolina vs. San Diego State, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $2,000 on top-rated spread picks since 2023, and find out.
