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Trainer Chad Brown will try to make it two in a row when he sends out three-year-old Chancer McPatrick at the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday. Brown won this Kentucky Derby prep race in 2024 with Domestic Product, who went on to compete in the Run for the Roses. He has a chance at victory once again with Chancer McPatrick, the 8-5 betting favorite in the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby odds. The winning horse in the Tampa Bay Derby 2025 will be awarded 50 qualifying points, which would all but guarantee they race at Churchill Downs in May.
Post time for Saturday's 1 1/16-mile race at Tampa Bay Downs is 5:34 p.m. ET. Kentucky Derby hopeful Patch Adams is 2-1 among the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby horses, while fellow contender Owen Almighty is 5-1 in the seven-horse 2025 Tampa Bay Derby lineup. With several talented three-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Tampa Bay Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. Last November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 score.
For Saturday, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Tampa Bay Derby predictions
One surprise: Menez is fading Chancer McPatrick, even though he is the betting favorite at 8-5. This three-year-old Chad Brown trainee got his 2025 campaign off to a late start due to an injury. Brown has already said Chancer McPatrick will only be 80% ready for Saturday's race, according to Menez, which casts doubt on how he will finish at the Tampa Bay Derby 2025.
The expert also notes that all of Chancer McPatrick's victories have occurred on one-turn races. Saturday's race will have two, and Menez is "wondering if he is best as a one-turn horse." You can see all of Menez's 2025 Fountain of Youth Stakes bets here.
How to make 2025 Tampa Bay Derby picks
Instead, Menez's top pick is a horse who is "drawn perfectly." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who hasn't raced since 2024, but "has been training steadily for his return." Menez is including these horses in his 2025 Tampa Bay Derby bets, and so should you. He's sharing what horses to back at SportsLine.
So what horse wins the Tampa Bay Derby 2025? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Tampa Bay Derby, all from the expert who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby and crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for $5,303, and find out.
2025 Tampa Bay Derby odds, contenders, post positions
| Horse | Odds | Picks |
| Owen Almighty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Chancer McPatrick | 8-5 | SEE PICKS |
| Hill Road | 4-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Brodeur | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Filoso | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Naughty Rascal | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| Patch Adams | 2-1 | SEE PICKS |
