With only a week remaining until Major League Baseball's trade deadline, it's fair to describe the playoff picture as muddled. Eight teams enter Tuesday within five games of a playoff spot in the American League, while the same was true of 13 National League clubs. That means that just nine teams are on the outside looking in.
It stands to reason that some of these bubble teams are going to take stock of their situations (and of their competition) and move to the sellers' side of the ledger over the coming days. By the same token, some of the other bubble teams will surely see this week as a golden opportunity to separate themselves from the pack.
While there is no shortage of interesting situations to be found across the races, the single most compelling call to make might belong to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
For those unaware, the Pirates enter Tuesday just a half game back of the National League's final wild-card spot. They've won eight of their last 10 games, and they've successfully recovered from a slow start by playing at a 93-win pace since the start of June. Of course, the Pirates' situation is more complex than their record or their proximity to the playoff race. They also have to be mindful of the greater dynamics that come with employing a star like right-hander Paul Skenes.
With all that in mind, below we've addressed three variables that could compel the Pirates to take an aggressive approach to buying over the next week.
1. There are no guarantees
Let's start with an obvious thought: the Pirates cannot assume anything about the future.
Teams often preach taking the long view, and not getting too caught up in the moment. For the most part, that's the wise approach. However, we think the Pirates' calculus has to be a little different and a little more flexible because of their team complexion. Three of Pittsburgh's five most productive players are right-handed pitchers -- that's Skenes as well as Mitch Keller and Jared Jones -- and pitchers are invariably tough to predict.
In an ideal world, the Pirates could bank on getting 90-plus starts from those three for years to come. That may happen but, without sounding too much like an actuary, the odds are very much against it. Pitchers get hurt all the time, and these days it feels like a matter of "when" rather than "if" any given pitcher will break down. The Pirates, to their credit, have approached Skenes and Jones in a highly conservative manner designed to keep them healthy. Unfortunately, the Pirates are without Jones on account of a strained lat, suggesting that even thoughtful management is no match for baseball's chaotic forces.
For context, consider that over the course of the 2021-23 seasons …
- 19 total pitchers averaged 30 or more starts;
- 46 total pitchers averaged 25 or more starts;
- And 87 total pitchers averaged 20 or more starts.
In other words, fewer than three starters per team were good for around 60-65% of their expected workload over a three-year stretch. Maybe the Pirates will get lucky and their big three will hold up, but it would be unwise to mark it as a given.
That doesn't mean the Pirates have to behave in a reckless way, emptying their farm system for rentals. It does mean that the Pirates shouldn't take this opportunity for granted, or view it as simply a prelude to their real competitive cycle. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball, and that's always true when it comes to building around pitchers.
2. Low barrier to upgrades
Having several weak positions as a contender is a double-edged sword: it's not good for obvious reasons, but it does mean that upgrades should be easily attainable. That's the case with the Pirates, who entered Monday with some obvious room for improvement.
- Catcher: 24th
- First base: 18th
- Second base: 23rd
- Third base: 16th
- Shortstop: 20th
- Left field: 10th
- Center field: 30th
- Right field: 21st
- Designated hitter: 15th
Obviously we don't expect the Pirates to upgrade at all their below-average spots -- there's no way they're adding a new third baseman or shortstop to usurp Ke'Bryan Hayes or Oneil Cruz, and it would only make sense to give Nick Gonzales a longer look at second base (even if his play has tapered off following a hot reintroduction to the majors).
Otherwise? The Pirates can surely find ways to do better at first base, at one of their outfield spots, and perhaps even behind the plate -- and they can do it without compromising their farm system in a significant way.
3. High-leverage series await
If you glance at the playoff odds published daily at sites like FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, you'll see that the Pirates don't have the most favorable chances of the teams closest to the National League wild-card picture. FanGraphs has them sixth among NL wild-card contenders; Baseball Prospectus has them eighth.
Even so, they do have something potentially working in their favor: a lot of head-to-head games with their closest competitors.
The Pirates are in a neck-and-neck race with the likes of the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, and the New York Mets. It just so happens that four of the Pirates' next seven series will come against either the Padres or the Diamondbacks. (They will not play the Mets again in 2024.) As such, the Pirates have a real opportunity over the coming few weeks to score head-to-head victories, which in turn would 1) create separation in the standings and 2) give them a leg-up in tiebreaker scenarios.
That means the Pirates have even greater incentive to make some moves over the coming week so that they can field their best possible roster heading into those series.
