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Max Verstappen has been largely unchallenged in Formula 1 over the last two seasons, winning 34 times and locking up the championship early in both seasons. However, after another dominant start for Red Bull's superstar in 2024 he's suddenly facing a serious threat from McLaren's Lando Norris and those two will continue their epic battle at the 2024 Monaco Grand Prix on Sunday. Norris won in Miami and then Verstappen barely held off his charge at Imola, and those two, along with Ferrari's Charles Leclerc, could make this year's Monaco Grand Prix one of the most exciting in years.

The race begins at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday and Verstappen is the -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) in the latest 2024 Monaco Grand Prix odds. However, Leclerc knows the streets of Monte Carlo well, having grown up there, and is listed at +400 while Norris is priced at +550 in this week's F1 odds. Before analyzing the 2024 Monaco Grand Prix starting grid and making any Formula 1 picks, be sure to check out the latest 2024 Monaco GP predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary Formula 1 prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results. It's had a strong history of success in motorsports, correctly predicting 19 NASCAR winners since the 2021 season and its projected leaderboards have forecasted winners across multiple racing formats.

The model has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 race events dating back to 2021. It nailed both of Charles Leclerc's wins in 2022, and at the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, the model was strongly backing Verstappen as its top pick. The result: Verstappen dominated the field and ran away with a surprise victory. 

The model followed that up by calling Verstappen's win at the Rolex Emilia Romagna GP in April and then nailed his wins again in Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, the United States, Mexico and Abu Dhabi. It also nailed all 19 of Verstappen's wins during the 2023 season and then called all five of the defending champion's wins so far in the 2024 season. Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix and just released its coveted picks and leaderboard projections. You can head to SportsLine now to see the 2024 Monaco Grand Prix projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix predictions

One surprise: The model is fading Red Bull Racing's Sergio Perez, predicting he doesn't crack the top five in Monaco. Perez has been a very capable No. 2 for Red Bull the last three seasons, winning five times and finishing second to Verstappen in the drivers' standings last season. However, he dropped to third in the standings after a disappointing performance last week and he's faced some serious questions about his future with Red Bull after the team reportedly rejected his counter-offer on a new deal.

Perez was on the podium in four of the first five races this season but improvements from McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes over the last month saw him drop to fourth in Miami and then eighth at Imola. He was beaten by both drivers from each of the three aforementioned teams and was nearly 55 seconds off Verstappen's pace in Italy last week and the model is predicting his struggles continue on Sunday. See who else the model is backing and fading at the 2024 Monaco Grand Prix right here.

How to make 2024 Monaco Grand Prix picks

Instead, the model is targeting a driver going off longer than 50-1 to make a surprising surge up the leaderboard. Anyone who backs him could hit it big. You can find out who he is, and see all of the model's F1 picks and predictions, at SportsLine.

So who wins the Monaco Grand Prix 2024, and which stunning longshot charges toward the front? Check out the latest 2024 F1 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 Monaco Grand Prix leaderboard, all from the model that nailed all 19 of Verstappen's wins last season and all five of his wins in 2024, and find out.

2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix odds, grid, contenders

See F1 Monaco Grand Prix picks at SportsLine.

Max Verstappen -125
Charles Leclerc +400
Lando Norris +550
Oscar Piastri +1000
Sergio Perez +1400
Carlos Sainz +1600
Fernando Alonso +6600
George Russell +8000
Lewis Hamilton +8000
Lance Stroll +25000
Yuki Tsunoda +40000
Daniel Ricciardo +40000
Esteban Ocon +50000
Nico Hulkenberg +75000
Kevin Magnussen +100000
Valtteri Bottas +100000
Alexander Albon +100000
Pierre Gasly +100000
Guanyu Zhou +150000
Logan Sargeant +200000