2025 Shriners Children's 500 betting, predictions, odds: Top three NASCAR longshot picks for Phoenix Raceway

SportsLine's model has simulated the 2025 Shriners Children's 500 10,000 times and released its coveted NASCAR at Phoenix best bets

By CBS Sports Staff

Mar 9, 2025 at 9:49 am ET • 2 min read

USATSI

Coming off back-to-back wins for the first time in his career, Christopher Bell will now line up at a track he was victorious at last year. On Sunday, Bell will aim for his third straight checkered flag at the 2025 Shriners Children's 500 from Phoenix Raceway. With his success both this year and at this track, Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson are +700 favorites, followed by Joey Logano (+750) and Christopher Bell (+750) in the 2025 Shriners Children's 500 odds. However, there are many NASCAR longshots worth a look with Shriners Children's 500 2025 bets, including Michael McDowell (+3700). He's the only driver with top-15s in all three races this season and has top-10s in two of his last three NASCAR Phoenix starts.

Top NASCAR at Phoenix sleeper picks from 10,000 simulations

Tyler Reddick (+850)

Reddick notched a career-best third-place finish at this race back in 2022, but his NASCAR at Phoenix success really took off when he joined 23XI Racing the following year. In four races at the track since then, he has three top 10s, including matching that career-best third place in March 2023. Then in the 2024 Shriners Children's 500, Reddick won Stage One, finished second in Stage Two and led the main race for a race-high of 68 laps. When you factor in that Reddick also has a pair of top-three finishes over his three starts this season, and he's a steal at his current NASCAR at Phoenix 2025 odds. In fact, Reddick is +240 to finish in the top three at DraftKings:

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21+ and present in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WY, and WV (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH and where prohibited. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).1 per new customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 3/30/25 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK. Data & text rates may apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD).21+ and present in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WY, and WV (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH and where prohibited. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).1 per new customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 3/30/25 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK. Data & text rates may apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD).21+ and present in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WY, and WV (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH and where prohibited. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).1 per new customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets that expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 3/30/25 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK. Data & text rates may apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD).

Ross Chastain (+2400)

Just two drivers have a better average finish at Phoenix Raceway over the last three years than Chastain's 9.2 (minimum five starts). This stretch includes a 2022 victory, as well as three other placements within the top six. Chastain's success at Phoenix is just a microcosm of his success, as a whole, on one-mile intermediate tracks. His average finish of 10.3 on these tracks is second-best in NASCAR over the last three years, with nine top 10s over the 15 races. The Trackhouse Racing driver has never finished outside the top 20 over his last six starts on one-mile tracks, so you want to bet on someone who always finds a way to be competitive. Chastain is going off at +1500 at FanDuel:

Chris Buescher (+3200)

Buescher is another driver who has benefitted from a change of scenery with a new team backing him. After never finishing in the top 15 in his first dozen starts at Phoenix Raceway -- with three different teams -- he then linked up with RFK Racing. In his six Phoenix starts since then, Buescher has five top 15s, including four top 10s. His teammate in Brad Keselowski also has three straight top 15s at Phoenix, so RFK clearly knows what it takes for success at the track. Additionally, Buescher enters Sunday's race coming off a hot start to this season as he placed seventh a week ago at COTA and began the year with a top-10 at Daytona. He's +2200 at Caesars: