2025 NBA Mock Draft: Tre Johnson moves up, Ace Bailey plummets in latest projections
Adam Finkelstein projects what happens after Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper go off the board with the first two picks
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1 min read
Happy NBA Draft week! Here's a look at my latest mock, with this edition being shaped first and foremost by intel and secondly by team needs.
In other words, this is my best guess about what I think will happen and not what I would do.
2025 NBA Draft prospects that Adam Finkelstein likes more than other experts do
Adam Finkelstein
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
The Mavs hope to compete now and Flagg is good enough to help them do it alongside Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving. Simultaneously though, he gives them a prospect who can grow into the future face of their franchise. He's versatile, competitive and athletic with a quiet killer instinct and fits the two-way mentality that Nico Harrison has preached about.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Harper is a big lead guard with positional size, strength, length and great basketball instincts. His long-term upside could ultimately be dictated by his shooting and durability but there is consistent optimism about what he can grow into. The fit in San Antonio is a little clunky alongside De'Aaron Fox and Steph Castle, but the amount of long-term upside around Wemby still creates extreme optimism.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
After Ace Bailey cancelled his workout in Philadelphia, V.J. Edgecombe became the player most often associated with the Sixers. While that is definitely still a possibility, the Sixers are also believed to be extremely interested in Johnson. He is a potent scorer and shot-maker who not only put up big numbers right away at Texas last year, but exceeded expectations with his overall efficiency while doing it.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
If Johnson is, in fact, the pick at 3, it would be an ideal scenario for Charlotte, who is believed to covet Edgecombe and reportedly even contemplating a deal to move up to get him. He is one of the best athletes and competitors in the draft. He puts downhill pressure on the rim, has exciting defensive upside and made steady strides with both his shooting and his overall guard skills within the last year.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Of all the decision makers most likely to hold their ground against Bailey's camp, the Ainges are at the very top of the list. So, there's a chance Bailey could be the pick even though he declined to workout in Utah. If not, Knueppel makes sense. He has one of the highest floors in this draft because he's skilled, shoots it well, knows how to play with other good players and can hold his own defensively.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
If Bailey falls all the way to this spot, it won't be because of his talent, it will be because his representation forced his way here. I still believe he's a top three prospect in the draft. He's a jumbo wing, high-level athlete and tough shot-maker. But he refused to workout with Philadelphia, Charlotte and Utah, all in an apparent effort to force his way to Washington or New Orleans, where his representation seems to believe he will have the most immediate opportunity.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
The Pelicans have been one of the teams reportedly interested in moving up, with Bailey and Johnson being the two targets most typically linked to. If they are unable to do so, Fears is probably the favorite. He is a high-risk high-reward prospect and a big swing for Joe Dumars, who is betting on his playmaking, burst and ability to get into the paint, while hoping for gains in shooting, defense and efficiency amidst less volume.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
The interest in Maluach has continued to rise as we get closer to draft night. The Spurs are reportedly interested in trading up to pair him with Wemby, but Brooklyn may well snatch him as their big man of the future. Maluach is 7-2 with a 7-6 wingspan. He's mobile and athletic for his size, a massive lob threat, rim-runner and developing shot-blocker. That archetype has consistently hit in recent years and Maluach has game-changing size even by NBA standards.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
If Maluach is off the board here, Toronto could look to Jakucionis to stabilize their backcourt. His highest upside is as a point guard with good size, skill and processing instincts. There may also be a world where he turns out to be better as a secondary playermaker who isn't responsible for creating the primary advantage, but for maintaining it once a more dynamic attacker has done so.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 10
The Rockets will be making this pick for the Suns as part of the Kevin Durant deal that can't be finalized until after the draft. Phoenix should be focused on the frontcourt where Murray-Boyles could potentially step right in. CMB is long, strong, very smart, a good rebounder, impactful on both ends of the floor and versatile definitely. If the shooting ever comes on, he could have real value here.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Houston was viewed as a likely destination for Bryant, but with Phoenix more likely to focus on a big, he could fall to Portland, which would be welcome news for the Blazers. Bryant only averaged 6.5 points and 4.1 rebounds, but shot 46% on unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, defended everything from point guards to forwards and is just 19 years old. Toronto could give him a look at No. 9,too. If Fears and/or CMB are on the board here, they could be options too.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
 
Noa Essengue
PF
France
• 6'9"
/ 194 lbs
Essengue is one of the youngest and most athletic players in the draft. His court coverage, fluidity and leaping ability for his size are all glaring. He also measured better than expected at 6-10 with a 7-1 wingspan. He still needs to get stronger and polish his overall game, but he's made notable strides in recent months in Germany, is already able to impact a high level of international play and has substantial untapped potential.
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From
Sacramento Kings
Round 1 - Pick 13
 
Joan Beringer
C
France
• 6'11"
/ 230 lbs
The first decision to be made in Atlanta is whether or not they're going to continue to build around Trae Young. If the answer is yes, then finding a future center and lob partner should be a top priority. Beringer is an extreme athlete, very young (he won't turn 19 until next November) and his archetype – as a rim-running, shot-blocking, lob threat – consistently hits, especially when you add his mobility and terrific hands.
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From
Atlanta Hawks
Round 1 - Pick 14
There are increasing signs that the Spurs would like to go big here, but if they can't move up to get Maluach and Beringer is off the board, they might opt to add a wing who can shoot and defend. Coward has massively long arms, huge hands and a frame that should keep evolving. He'd provide some much-needed floor spacing and also has the tools to be a valuable wing defender.
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From
Miami Heat
Round 1 - Pick 15
Queen is the best player on the board at this point and so while the fit isn't a glaringly obvious one in OKC, Sam Presti isn't likely to let him pass, especially when there could be a trade market which allows him to push his draft assets down the road without taking up another roster spot now. Queen is a highly skilled big man, particularly as a dribbler and passer, whose potential will come in correlation to his defense, shooting and conditioning.
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From
Orlando Magic
Round 1 - Pick 16
Just three years after the Grizzlies drafted Jake LaRavia, McNeeley fills a similar archetype with more natural talent. The former five-star recruit is a big wing who is skilled, competitive and a quick processor. After striking gold with Jaylen Wells in the second-round last year, the hope is that this duo could be a long-term tandem. Murray-Boyles, Coward, Egor Demin and Danny Wolf may also be in play here.
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From
Detroit Pistons
Round 1 - Pick 17
Most believe that Minnesota will look to address their frontcourt with this pick. There's also a need for a ball-mover alongside Anthony Edwards and other scoring guards like Rob Dillingham. Demin might check both boxes. While he's often called a point guard, he measured out at over 6-9 with shoes on and most often defended opposing forwards last year with BYU. Most importantly, he may be the best passer in the draft.
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From
Memphis Grizzlies
Round 1 - Pick 18
Newell got an earlier green room invitation than most were expecting, which is typically a strong indication that he wasn't being mocked aggressively enough. The southpaw provides a high-energy and mobile big who can split time between the four and the five. His physicality would make a nice complement for Alex Sarr and if the shooting ever clicks, this will end up being terrific value at 18.
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From
Milwaukee Bucks
Round 1 - Pick 19
 
Nolan Traore
PG
France
• 6'5"
/ 175 lbs
If Brooklyn doesn't take a guard like Fears or Jakucionis at No. 8, then it could look to add one here. Traore came into the draft cycle viewed as a potential top five pick and while his stock dipped during the course of the season, he played some of his best basketball late in the year with Saint-Quentin. He has extreme speed and playmaking ability, but is also showing some recent gains with his shooting that are very encouraging. If they go with a guard early, someone like Thomas Sorber could be in play here.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Clayton has reportedly had multiple workouts in Miami and recently cancelled workouts towards the end of the first-round, which is probably very telling. He is one of the very best shooters in this draft, has the versatility to play both on and off the ball and the physical strength to be a more competitive defender in the NBA than we saw for most of his college career.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Utah is reportedly interested in moving up on draft night. If no scenarios emerge that make sense for them, adding another piece on the wing would make sense. Liam McNeeley is believed to be a target, but if he's not available then Clifford provides a two-way player and good athlete who could evolve into a nice 3-and-D option if the shooting gains he made at Colorado State prove to be sustainable.
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From
Los Angeles Lakers
Round 1 - Pick 22
If Atlanta goes for a big at 13, they'll likely look to solidify their backcourt depth at 22. Riley is a long-term stock as he builds up his body and gets more consistent overall, but one with a significant upside. He measured at over 6-8 without shoes and has shown flashes of both playmaking and shooting. None of that is NBA ready just yet, but at this point in the draft, the potential for a big secondary guard could be enticing.
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From
Indiana Pacers
Round 1 - Pick 23
Acquired in last week's deal with Indiana, if New Orleans is able to move up, it may very well be by packaging their picks. If they keep the pick, Wolf provides a highly skilled face-up big man who could pair with either Yves Missi or Zion Williamson. He's an excellent handler, passer and playmaker for his size. The shooting needs to catch up a bit, but he has the touch to do it.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 24
OKC has been one of the teams linked to Sorber for several weeks now and while the Thunder are somewhat notorious for putting out a lot of smokescreens, this could be a logical fit. Sorber has massive measurements and was viewed as a riser coming out of the combine. Since then though, as he's continued to rehab from his late season injury, questions about his conditioning have resurfaced that have cooled the enthusiasm a bit. If OKC goes for more of a wing then both Noah Penda and Hugo Gonzalez could be in play.
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From
Denver Nuggets
Round 1 - Pick 25
Orlando could use two things here – backcourt depth and shooting and Richardson checks both of those boxes. An undersized lefty combo who was a versatile and efficient scoring threat last year for Michigan State, he has on/off ball versatility, can score at various levels within the flow of the game and is a high processor. As he builds up his body and further develops his right hand, he'll continue to ascend.
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From
New York Knicks
Round 1 - Pick 26
Noah Penda
SF
France
• 6'8"
/ 225 lbs
If Maluach weren't the pick in the lottery, then Ryan Kalkbrenner would be in play here. Instead, a versatile two-way wing like Penda, with an NBA-ready body, could make more sense. He's a playmaking defender, high IQ player and good connector. If Brooklyn's player development program can impact his shooting, the return could be high here.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 27
While I have Kalkbrenner a little higher on my board, Raynaud has a better chance of fitting alongside Maluach and Nic Claxton because of his shooting. In fact, the 7-footer made 45% of his open catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. He also puts the ball on the floor well for his size and is a good athlete at the rim. The 10.6 rebounds per game are also extremely notable.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
This would be the second year in a row that the Celtics use their first-round pick on a player from Creighton after picking Baylor Scheierman last year. It's very possible Kalkbrenner isn't on the board, but if he is, expect the Celtics to jump at him. With extreme uncertainty about their center position next year, Kalkbrenner gives them one of the biggest players in the league, a drop coverage monster, a durable big body and maybe even a potential standstill shooting threat down the road.
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From
Cleveland Cavaliers
Round 1 - Pick 29
The Suns need frontcourt depth and have also been linked to guards like Clayton and Richardson. Rasheer Fleming may make some sense here, but if they want to take a long-term swing, Powell could interest them. The offense is a major work in progress, but the defense is good and if the shooting potential ever clicks then he's a valuable 3-and-D wing for the next decade-plus in the league.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
 
Hugo Gonzalez
SF
Spain
• 6'6"
/ 205 lbs
Gonzalez is a physical wing who has solid size, good athleticism and plenty of strength. He's a high motor player known for his two-way competitiveness. He's a very good on-ball defender, but not unlike Edgecombe, has to improve on the weakside. The swing skill is the shooting. He's been a big name in Spain for a couple years now, but hasn't developed his total offensive game quite as consistently as hoped.
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