Some deals you can just see coming.
The Los Angeles Clippers have long made sense as a destination for Danilo Gallinari. The Clippers had engaged the Nuggets in trade talks through the years, according to multiple sources. Gallinari is a veteran, long and athletic, good with the ball and without, a great shooter and an excellent driver who is a master at getting to the line. He's everything the Clippers have been missing at small forward.
Chris Paul may be gone, but it looks like the Clippers have gotten one of their targets. Multiple outlets reported Tuesday night that the Clippers secured Gallinari on a 3-year, $65 million deal, which will come via 3-way sign-and-trade with Denver and Atlanta. The Hawks would send a second-round pick to Denver, the Nuggets would sign-and-trade Gallinari to the Clippers, and the Clippers would send Diamond Stone and Jamal Crawford to Atlanta, along with a draft pick.
Here's what you need to know about this deal for the Clippers.
The Fit
Gallinari comes with injury issues. He suffered a torn ACL in 2013, and subsequently was talked into an experimental procedure that eventually required another surgery to fully repair it. He hasn't played more than 63 games since, though that number did come last year.
Beyond the injuries, though, is the kind of player that fits perfectly with the Clippers.
Playmaking: In the absence of Chris Paul, you need someone to generate offense. The ball will go through Blake Griffin, he's their star and best player. But you need a perimeter threat that can draw the defense or punish them for paying attention to Griffin. Gallinari is not great playmaker. He averaged 3.5 assists last season, on a team that was pass heavy. He's a willing passer, and the ball moves when he's in according to scheme. But he's not going to find a lot of opportunities for others.
What he is, however, is an individual scoring machine.
Gallinari ranked in the 97th percentile among all players in half-court offense per possession last season, including being 76th percentile in isolation situations, and 95th percentile in pick and rolls. He's efficient all over in creating and scoring on his own shot. The Clippers are going to need that without Paul, and Gallinari fits the bill. He's able to take the ball in late-clock situations when the offense stalls and not only find, but hit shots.
Gallinari is a part-time power forward, and that part is a weird fit, here, with Griffin and Jordan. But he can slide down in situations where the Clippers go small or when Griffin is on the bench, giving them an option to have perimeter weapons all over. (These weapons are still not as good as when they had J.J. Redick, let alone Chris Paul, and Jamal Crawford is gone, too. But let's assume some of their guys can shoot.)
The idea of a smallball lineup with Gallinari at 4 and Griffin at 5 is exciting, but would get destroyed on the glass and defensively. Griffin's not the "rise up and slam the putback" guy as he once was anymore, and he'd need to do that a lot in those lineups. However, using Gallo in the high post is smart. He can face-up and shoot over smaller opponents with ease:
And then he can spin and punish them to do what he does best: draw fouls.
Which, we should talk about for a minute.
The Never-Ending Stripe
Among all players with at least 1,000 possessions total last season, Blake Griffin was fifth in free throws drawn last season, according to Synergy Sports. He got to the line on 17 percent of all of his possessions, an incredible amount. To put this in perspective, James Harden was 15th at 15.5 percent. Chris Paul was 41st at 11 percent.
Danilo Gallinari? He was second, league wide, behind Jimmy Butler, drawing free throws at a 19 percent rate.
The Clippers, amazingly, are going to shoot even more free throws next season. They already led the league in that category (percentage of possessions) last season. These games may not be very fun to watch. Between Gallo, Blake Griffin and hack-a-DeAndre, the Clippers' game time is going to last for hours and hours.
This is one of the few complaints you can muster with Gallinari. He sometimes gets caught up in trying to draw the foul instead of actually trying to score. He's an aggressive driver, but without the athleticism he used to have, he has to resort to those tricks more often to score. It can cost him possessions. But overall, it's an effective strategy, especially when he shoots 90 percent from the stripe as he does.
Defense Could Depend On Some Things
The Clippers got Patrick Beverley in exchange for Paul, and you can kind of consider Gallinari the replacement offensively for Redick, only at forward. Beverley and Gallinari are similar defensively in some ways. Whereas Paul is always locked in, barking out orders and communication, and tethered to his man off-ball, Gallinari and Beverley both wax and wane when the ball is not in their assignment's hands.
On-ball, Gallinari can be fierce. He was 64th percentile in isolation last year, and with his length and mobility, he can still challenge guards, especially on side pick and rolls where he can use the sideline as a secondary defender. He's very good at corralling space.
It's off-ball where he gets in trouble. Gallinari's biggest weakness is closeouts. He tends to stop short consistently on closeouts to cut off the drive instead of fully running off the shooter, giving up catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. Some of that, though, was due to fear of individual containment with no rim protector on Denver. Some of it is just the injury, and his inability to spring out to shooters.
Moreover, Gallinari's play tends to improve as the team does. He's a player who thrives on competitive teams with multiple weapons, which the Clippers have, to at least some degree. His effort level improves, and Doc Rivers may be able to get the most out of him in that regard.
In Conclusion
It's a good signing for the Clippers, who will be able to manage Gallinari's minutes and give him a better situation. If he stays healthy, which is a question mark, he's going to help them win games. How he and Griffin will fit together is something to be worked out, but he'll make some spectacular plays, have some high scoring nights, and the Clippers will benefit from his savvy and skill.
Sportsline projects that the Clippers go from 39.5 wins next season to 41.1 with Gallinari. So the Clippers still have some work to do, but Gallinari makes an impact.
It's a good get for L.A.
