Buccaneers vs. Panthers score: Tampa keeps NFC South title hopes alive after fending off Carolina

The NFC South champion is still to be determined

We'll have to wait a little bit longer to figure out who'll win the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) were able to fend off a late rally from the Carolina Panthers (8-9) and pull off the 16-14 victory at Raymond James Stadium. This victory keeps the Bucs' playoff hopes alive, while Carolina is not out of the race quite yet, even in defeat. 

Now, all eyes will shift to Sunday's matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. If the Falcons win that contest, Carolina would win the NFC South due to a three-way tiebreaker. If the Saints win, Tampa Bay will be crowned division champs for the fifth straight year. 

It was a rather modest start to Saturday's contest with the Bucs gaining an early edge with a 10-0 run in the first quarter. After back-to-back punts to start the day, Carolina would chip away at the lead with a Tommy Tremble 8-yard touchdown from Bryce Young in the early stages of the second quarter, taking advantage of a Baker Mayfield interception on the prior possession. 

That would be the only time the Panthers got into the end zone or put points on the scoreboard until late in the fourth quarter as they stared down a 16-7 deficit. With just over two minutes to play, Young connected with Jalen Coker for an 8-yard touchdown to get within two points of the Bucs, a scoring play set up by a 40-yard gain by rookie Tetairoa McMillan. 

That effort was too little, too late in the end, however, as Mayfield and Co. were able to bleed the clock down on the ensuing possession to less than 30 seconds in regulation, largely in part to a clutch bootleg throw to Cade Otton on a third-and-4 play just before the two-minute warning. That left Carolina little to no time to travel the length of the field to try and kick a game-winner, but it didn't even cross midfield, which has them now rooting for Atlanta to keep their hopes of winning the NFC South going. 

Mayfield completed 16 of his 22 passes for 203 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Otton was his go-to target, catching seven passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. Young completed 24 of 35 passes for 266 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in the losing effort.  

[Jan 3, 2026 at 7:36 pm ET · Tyler Sullivan]

With Tampa Bay's win, all eyes will now be on Sunday's matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 7:13 pm ET · Tyler Sullivan]

Carolina may have just seen its chances of winning this game go out the window with that reception by Cade Otton. Everyone in the world expected Tampa Bay to continue to run the football, but instead opted to roll Baker Mayfield out on a bootleg where he found Otton for a 20-yard gain. That takes us to the two-minute warning and the Panthers have just one timeout remaining. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 7:09 pm ET · Tyler Sullivan]

Something important that the broadcast just noted: the rain has returned in a big way. With the Bucs likely leaning on the rushing attack to kill clock, ball security could become an issue due to the wet weather. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 7:08 pm ET · Tyler Sullivan]

We have a game at Raymond James Stadium! After the big gain from McMillan to get the Panthers in the red zone, Bryce Young threw a second-and-goal throw up to Jalen Coker, who muscles down the touchdown. Suddenly, it's a 16-14 game with 2:27 to go. Each club has all of its timeouts. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 7:06 pm ET · Tyler Sullivan]

Carolina has momentum! Tet McMillan got behind the defense and broke off a 40-yard gain that has the Panthers in the red zone. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 7:02 pm ET · Tyler Sullivan]

A momentum swing for Carolina? A successful challenge by the Panthers forced Tampa Bay to opt for a field goal, and they were able to block the kick. Let's see if Carolina's offense can take advantage. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 6:48 pm ET · Tyler Sullivan]

Not really sure the Panthers needed to reach into their bag of tricks, but they did. And it produced the exact opposite of a spark. Carolina attempted a flea flicker, but the wet conditions at Raymond James Stadium had Rico Dowdle slip as he tried to lateral the ball back to Bryce Young. The ball then hit the turf, and Tampa Bay recovered at their own 29-yard line. That could be the nail in the coffin for Carolina in this game. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 6:40 pm ET · Tyler Sullivan]

Tampa Bay now has a two-possession lead (16-7) over the Panthers thanks to a nine-play drive that culminated in a 48-yard field goal from Chase McLaughlin, who has connected on all three of his field goals tonight. Carolina needs to respond here after going silent since their touchdown dive at the start of the second quarter. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 6:35 pm ET · Tyler Sullivan]

Entering the fourth quarter, the current live lines at DraftKings Sportsbook have the Buccaneers as a 6.5-point favorite at -110. They are -620 on the moneyline, so the Panthers have their work cut out for them over the next 15 minutes. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 6:21 pm ET · Kevin Steimle]

The Panthers and Bucs have traded punts halfway through the third quarter. Panthers still trail 13-7.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 6:06 pm ET · Kevin Steimle]

The Panthers will begin the third quarter with the ball, trailing 13-7.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 5:51 pm ET · Kevin Steimle]

Tampa's Chase McLaughlin hit a field goal from 36 yards out to end the half. A half that the Bucs pretty much dominated.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 5:44 pm ET · Kevin Steimle]

Carolina had a chance to score before halftime, but Young threw an interception to Tampa's to Jacob Parrish with 1:51 to go in the half. Bucs take over at their own 42.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 5:18 pm ET · Kevin Steimle]

Carolina is right back in the game after a Tommy Tremble 8-yard touchdown reception from Bryce Young after the Panthers picked off Baker Mayfield. 10-7 Bucs

[Jan 3, 2026 at 5:16 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Early 2Q: Buccaneers 10, Panthers 0

Christian Rozeboom came away with an interception on a Mayfield pass intended for Emeka Egbuka. Sets the Panthers up just inside the red zone as they attempt to make this a one-score game. 

[Jan 3, 2026 at 5:10 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Once again, the Panthers got to around the 50-yard line. Once again, they promptly went nowhere upon arrival near midfield. They lined up like they were going to go for it on fourth-and-8 just outside Tampa's 40-yard line but just took a delay of game penalty to set up a more comfortable punting situation. The Bucs will have a chance to turn this into a three-score lead coming up.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 5:00 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Late 1Q: Buccaneers 10, Panthers 0

Another very nice drive for Tampa, which has now scored on both of its possessions. Aided by a taunting penalty on Mike Jackson, the Bucs worked their way into the red zone but ultimately stalled out there. Mayfield had a chance to hit Payne Durham across the field for a touchdown on first down and then Emeka Egbuka on third down, but neither receiver could come down with the tough grab and Tampa settled for a Chase McLaughlin kick.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 4:49 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Carolina benefitted from a personal foul penalty on the opening snap to move up to the 50-yard line, but promptly when nowhere with the opening possession. Bryce Young's third-down pass intended for Xavier Legette was nearly completed but instead fell to the ground and the Panthers had to punt. They gained only 30 yards of field position as the punt resulted in a touchback.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 4:42 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Early 1Q: Buccaneers 7, Panthers 0

Fantastic opening drive for Tampa Bay goes 74 yards on nine plays and ends with a touchdown pass from Baker Mayfield to Cade Otton on a seam route. It was a run-heavy drive at first with Bucky Irving carrying five times and Mayfield also having a scramble for nine yards, but Mayfield hit Otton twice in a row to put the ball into the end zone and give Tampa the lead early on.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 4:15 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Our Garrett Podell previewed this game and detailed some of the key storylines to look out for.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction: Can Carolina end Tampa Bay's four-year NFC South reign?

Garrett Podell

[Jan 3, 2026 at 4:00 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Our J.P. Acosta wrote about Mayfield's play this season and the role it's played in Tampa's backslide.

Is Baker Mayfield's reckless play sole reason why Buccaneers are on brink of elimination?

JP Acosta

[Jan 3, 2026 at 3:45 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Our John Breech wrote about how this game could spark a renewed debate regarding whether division champions should get automatic home games in the first round of the playoffs.

NFL playoff controversy: How Buccaneers or Panthers could spark a renewed debate about postseason format

John Breech

[Jan 3, 2026 at 3:30 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

The are massive NFC South implications for this game. Here's the list:

• If they win, the Panthers clinch the division and the No. 4 seed in the NFC.
• If they win, the Buccaneers clinch the division and the No. 4 seed in the NFC if the Saints beat the Falcons tomorrow.
• No matter what happens in this game, if the Falcons win tomorrow, the Panthers will be NFC South champions.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 3:06 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Tershawn Wharton is out for Carolina.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 3:01 pm ET · Jared Dubin]

Calijah Kancey and Tristan Wirfs will play.

[Jan 3, 2026 at 2:48 pm ET · Kevin Steimle]

Panthers running back Rico Dowdle has $1.25 million on the line today vs. Tampa Bay. Dowdle needs seven total yards to collect a $1 million incentive and one touchdown to collect another $250,000.