With just five weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, the NFC West has been turned almost upside-down.
The San Francisco 49ers, who won the division last season en route to representing the NFC in the Super Bowl, sit in last place in the NFC West, at 5-7. The Los Angeles Rams, who were the runners-up in the division last year and reached the playoffs, occupy third place, at 6-6. The Arizona Cardinals, who finished last in the NFC West one year ago, are in second place, at 6-6.
And the leaders of the division? That would be the surprising Seattle Seahawks (7-5), who own a one-game lead despite being +650 longshots to win the NFC West in the preseason. They have won three straight games and are coming off a 26-21 win over the Jets in which Seattle rallied from a 14-point deficit.
Though the four teams are separated by just two games in the standings, the Seahawks could put one hand on the division crown on Sunday when they face the second-place Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The game will have massive implications in the NFC West. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, Seattle has a 53.7% chance to win the division, but that improves to 78.9% with a win. If the Seahawks were to lose, that chance falls to 23.1%.
Meanwhile, Arizona enters the week with a 25.8% chance to win the division. That improves to 36.5% with a win but falls to 4.7% with a loss.
| Team | Chance With Win | Chance With Loss |
| Seahawks | 78.9% | 23.1% |
| Cardinals | 36.5% | 4.7% |
"If Seattle beats Arizona and favored Buffalo beats the Rams and favored San Francisco beats Chicago, the Seahawks' odds jump significantly because Seattle would separate itself with a two-game lead," said Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model.
The game carries additional significance because of how the other divisions in the NFC are playing out. The Washington Commanders (8-5) currently occupy the third and final wild card spot in the NFC and have only one more game against a team with a winning record, the Eagles (10-2).
"It is very unlikely that the NFC West will get a second playoff team so winning the division is the key to making the playoffs," Oh told SportsLine.
Though the 49ers are in last place in the division and just put their top two running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason) on IR, the model still gives them a 3.8% chance of winning the division. San Francisco's chances would get a huge boost with a win over the Bears and a Cardinals win over the Seahawks.
"While the 49ers would still be at the bottom of the division, their chances would more than double to 9.9% because they still get to play the Rams and Cardinals," Oh says. "San Francisco could potentially get splits against those teams, finish 3-3 in the division with the other three teams and maybe somehow win a tiebreaker based on conference records."
As for the Week 14 game between the Seahawks and Cardinals, the SportsLine Projection Model is predicting a close game. However the game is not one of the four with A-grade spread picks based on model simulations for Week 14. You can find those top-tier Week 14 NFL picks at SportsLine.
