NFL: Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals
Joseph Maiorana

It's a passing league and NFL wide receiver props are a popular way to play along every week. Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins has had a resurgence since Joe Flacco took over after a difficult start to the season and his receiving statistics over/unders have surged as a result. FanDuel lists Higgins' over/under for total receptions against the Steelers on Sunday. However, he's only reached five receptions three times all season and the SportsLine Projeciton Model advises taking advantage of the +116 price the Under offers and is adding picks involving Jaylen Waddle and Rashid Shaheed for a FanDuel wide receiver parlay that pays +661.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 on a 47-32 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three quarterback betting picks for NFL Week 11 (odds subject to change): 

  • Tee Higgins, Bengals, Under 4.5 receptions (+116)
  • Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins, Under 78.5 receiving yards (-114)
  • Rashid Shaheed, Seahawks, Over 31.5 receiving yards (-114)

Combining the model's three picks into an NFL parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +661 (risk $100 to win $661).

Tee Higgins, Bengals, Under 4.5 receptions (+116, FanDuel)

Flacco has helped steady things offensively and now the Bengals have the prospect of Joe Burrow returning in the next few weeks. Those are all good things for Higgins long-term, but that doesn't make five receptions a guarantee. He got there against the Steelers on Oct. 16 (catching six passes), but he had a one-catch game the following week and was failed to catch more than three passes in six of nine game this season. The model predicts that he finishes with 3.6 receptions on average.

Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins, Under 78.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

Waddle has reached 80 yards in five of his last six games and the Commanders have the second-worst pass defense in the NFL, so why is this number in the 70s? Miami is coming off a stunning upset of the Bills, so the potential for a letdown game is significant. Perhaps more importantly, the Commanders rank seventh in the NFL in rushing and the Dolphins rank 26th in the NFL defense in run defense, setting the stage for Washington to use its ground game to control the clock and limit Miami's offensive opportunities. The model predicts that the finishes with 71.5 receiving yards on average.

Rashid Shaheed, Seahawks, Over 31.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

Shaheed was acquired at the NFL trade deadline and debuted for Seattle last week, catching one pass for three yards. However, he only played in 33.9% of the offensive snaps after only having a few days in the system. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak did scheme him up a couple of touches as a runner to take advantage of his speed and he turned those into 20 yards. Expect a larger role in his second week and his ability to stretch a defense in the NFL's best downfield passing attack means he could easily eat this up with one catch. The model predicts he finishes with 44 yards on average.