USATSI

Based on the Week 5 NFL lines, Sunday's 12-game slate could be highly competitive. There are five games on the Week 5 NFL schedule that have NFL spreads of under a field goal, including Patriots vs. Saints (+1.5). Both teams have yet to reach 21 points in a game this season. Unsurprisingly, the Under is a combined 7-1 for them and Sunday's matchup has a total of 39.5. The Under has hit in New Orleans' last 10 games, while the Saints are also winless against the spread in their last five.

You could combine NFL picks against the spread and wagers on NFL totals into a Week 5 NFL parlay bets. Before you make any Week 5 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 22-10 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.  

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 5. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 5 NFL picks at SportsLine.

Top Week 5 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) to cover on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. Kansas City's offense always gets the spotlight, but the defense has been among the best in the league. It ranks fifth in scoring, eighth in yards, and top-10 on third down and in the redzone. The Chiefs haven't allowed a single offensive touchdown longer than 10 yards all season, which could hamstring a Vikings offense that's often reliant on big plays in the passing game.

If Minnesota is forced to run more plays to move the ball, that only increases the likelihood for turnovers. The Vikings lead the NFL in giveaways (11) and rank second-worst in turnover differential (minus-eight). The lack of a running game is putting entirely too much of the offense on Kirk Cousins, and the veteran quarterback has responded with an NFL-high seven turnovers.

Minnesota's only wins over its last seven games came against the Panthers and Bears. No one would confuse the Chiefs for either of those, and the Vikings have just one against the spread victory in their last nine games as underdogs. The model has Kansas City (-3.5) winning by more than a touchdown and covering well over 60% of the time. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.

How to make Week 5 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including an underdog that wins outright. You can only see the model's NFL Week 5 best bets and parlay at SportsLine. 

What are the model's top Week 5 NFL picks? And which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 5 NFL best bets from a model on a 168-118 run on top-rated picks, and find out.