Picking number one means you get the best player in Fantasy Football over the last half a decade, Christian McCaffrey. It also means you get two terribly difficult picks at the next turn because there is almost no consensus over what counts as a top-25 player this season. Our consensus ends around pick 18, which means your second and third picks are already "get your guy" territory. In fact, with 22 picks between every turn, that should probably be your philosophy when picking from either turn. ADP from this position or pick 12 becomes almost irrelevant.
Here's my squad from the first pick:
1.01: Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
2.12: Rachaad White, RB, TB
3.01: Michael Pittman, WR, IND
4.12: Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
5:01 Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
6.12: Keenan Allen, WR, CHI
7.01: Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
8.12: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, TEN
9.01: Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
10.12: Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
11.01 Curtis Samuel, WR, BUF
12.12: Josh Downs, WR, IND
13.01 Bucky Irving, RB, TB
14.12 Darnell Mooney, WR, ATL
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Let's start with the positive. I was thrilled to land Mark Andrews and Patrick Mahomes at the four-five turn. One thing I am looking for if I have the first pick is if one of the top four quarterbacks and/or tight ends fall to this position. That's because I really wouldn't be surprised if any of the top four at either position finish number one, in fact, I have both Mahomes and Andrews projected there in half-PPR. If I'm right, I may just have the number one running back, quarterback, and tight end in the league. That's good, because my wide receivers are a problem.
The truth is, if you draft an elite quarterback and tight end you are going to be weak somewhere. And I would rather be weak at wide receiver in a half-PPR league than full PPR. But after Michael Pittman, I am counting on at least two of the old dudes I drafted maintaining their production for at least one more year. Keenan Allen hasn't actually shown any signs of dropping off, but he has a rookie QB and more competition for targets than he's ever had. DeAndre Hopkins has plenty of opportunity, but he looked a little older last year and he's battling a knee injury. If they both fall off, I am in trouble.
I'll be counting on a Bronco to start for me at flex, unless I need Courtland Sutton as a No. 3 wide receiver. Javonte Williams took a lot of hits in the press this offseason, but all reports from camp have been that he's looking like his old self. If Williams is 100%, Sean Payton's offense will give him the opportunity to be a top-20 running back. If that happens, my wide receiver concerns can be overcome.
I am pretty much thrilled with any of the top four tight ends at the end of Round 4. From Week 2 through 10 last year, when Andrews was healthy, he averaged 14.6 PPR Fantasy points per game, which would have tied Travis Kelce for TE1 last year. I actually like Andrews a little more in half PPR than I do in full because he scores more of his Fantasy points on yards and touchdowns than he does on catches. No one should be surprised if he's the best tight end in Fantasy Football this season.
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When you're at the turn you're going to have to reach on a few picks to get your guys and this was probably my biggest reach. I expect Anthony Richardson to help Pittman's efficiency and I expect Pittman to set a career high in receiving touchdowns if he stays healthy. But those are just my expectations. If he remains what he's been then I don't have a WR1 on this team, and Pittman may not even be a good WR2 in a league where catches don't count for a full point. I already wish I had taken Mike Evans or Jaylen Waddle and I just updated my rankings to reflect that.
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This is true of whoever you take at one overall, you need them to be elite and stay healthy. I feel a lot better about the be elite part, especially since McCaffrey suffered a calf strain almost immediately after this draft. If he's not 100% for 15 weeks including the playoffs my team may be sunk. Getting dinged up in camp may not mean anything, but I wouldn't blame you if it made you consider CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Breece Hall, or Bijan Robinson at running back.
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