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Through the first 12 weeks of the NFL season, we still haven't seen a single team clinch a playoff berth yet or get eliminated, but both of those things could change this week. 

In news that probably won't surprise anyone, the Panthers could become the first team eliminated from playoff contention and that could happen as soon as Sunday. If Carolina loses to Tampa Bay, then the Panthers' playoff hopes will be extinguished. The Patriots and Cardinals could also be eliminated this week, but a lot of things would have to go wrong for that to happen. 

On the flip side, the Eagles could become the first team to clinch a playoff spot this season. The simplest way for that to happen would be an Eagles win over the 49ers combined with a loss or tie by the Rams, who will be playing the Browns (You can read about all the clinching scenarios here).

At this point, the Eagles feel like a lock for the playoff. So who's going to join them in the postseason? 

That's what we're going to answer right now in this week's playoff projection. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the 2023 NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field. 

With that in mind, let's get to this week's playoff projections (For more from Stephen Oh and his SportsLine "Inside the Lines" team, you can tune into his YouTube channel daily at 1 p.m. ET by clicking here). 

AFC playoff projection

1. (AFC West Champion)
The Chiefs (8-3) aren't in the top spot in the AFC right now, but they will be if they beat the Packers on Sunday. Although the Chiefs are currently the second seed, the computer is projecting that Kansas City will finish at the top of the AFC. The two biggest things working in the Chiefs' favor: They have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the AFC and they hold almost every key tiebreaker over the other top teams in the conference (They beat the Jags and Dolphins and they have a better conference record than the Ravens).  
2. (AFC North Champion)
The computer has the Ravens and Chiefs finishing with the same record, but as we mentioned above, the Chiefs would likely get the top seed in that scenario since they have a better conference record (The Chiefs are currently 6-1 while the Ravens are 6-3). As long as the Chiefs don't stumble down the stretch, it's going to be hard for Baltimore (9-3) to get the top seed. That being said, the computer does like Baltimore's chances of winning the AFC North with the Ravens currently being given a 65.3% chance to win the division. 
3. (AFC South Champion)
Thanks to their win over the Texans, the computer now views the Jaguars (8-3) as a virtual lock to win the AFC South. Going into Week 12, the Jaguars had a 60.2% chance of winning the division, but now that has shot up to 91.3% following their win against Houston. 
4. (AFC East Champion)
With the Bills losing in Philadelphia on Sunday, the computer now loves the Dolphins' (8-3) chances of winning the AFC East for the first time in 15 years. According to our projection, the Dolphins have a 90.7% chance of winning the division. Dolphins fans might also want to start saving for playoff tickets because the computer is giving Miami a 97.4% chance of making the playoffs. 
5. Wild Card 1
Week 12 couldn't have gone much better for the Steelers (7-4). Not only did they get to face (and beat) a Bengals team that didn't have Joe Burrow, but the Browns and Texans both lost, which is why the computer is now projecting the Steelers to finish with the fifth overall seed. One big thing working in the Steelers' favor is that they have the third-easiest remaining schedule in the AFC. 
6. Wild Card 2
Although the Browns offense appears to be in a rut, the computer still thinks this team is going to make the playoffs. According to our projection, the Browns have a 76.7% chance of reaching the postseason, which puts them well ahead of every wild-card contender below them.
7. Wild Card 3
The Texans and Colts close out the regular season by playing each other in Week 18 and there's definitely a chance that the final wild-card spot in the AFC could be on the line in that game. As things stand now, the computer is projecting that the Texans, Colts and Broncos will all be battling for the final spot. The computer is giving the Texans a 52.1% chance of getting in while the Colts (39.7%) and Broncos (26.8%) are much lower. And as you may or may not have noticed, we didn't mention the Bills and that's mostly because the computer doesn't like their chances of getting in.  

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Colts (39.7%), Broncos (26.8%), Bills (18.8%), Chargers (6.3%), Raiders (2.1%), Bengals (1.6%), Titans (1.3%), Jets (0.9%), Patriots (0.0%).

NFC playoff projection

1. (NFC East Champion)
Although the Eagles (10-1) pulled off a wild win over the Bills in Week 12, the computer isn't so sure about Philly's chances of winning the Super Bowl. Despite having the best record in the NFL, the Eagles have just the third-best chance of winning it all. According to the computer, the Eagles have a 17.59% chance, which is behind both the 49ers (23.71%) and Chiefs (18.87%).  
2. (NFC West Champion)
Even if the 49ers beat the Eagles this week, the computer doesn't really like San Francisco's chances of catching them for the top seed in the NFC. That being said, the computer likes everything else about the 49ers (8-3). Heading into Week 13, San Francisco is viewed as the top team in the NFL in the computer's power ranking system. 
3. (NFC North Champion)
Heading into Week 12, the Lions (8-3) looked like they might have shot at earning the top seed in the NFC, but after their upset loss to the Packers on Thanksgiving, the computer now has them finishing as the third-seed in the conference. Despite the loss, the Lions are still viewed as the overwhelming favorite to win the NFC North with the computer giving them an 84.8% chance to win the division title for the first time since 1993. 
4. (NFC South Champion)
Surprisingly, the computer didn't malfunction while trying to project the winner of the NFC South, but it did spit out a surprise: The computer is projecting the Saints (5-6) to win the division, even after their loss to the Falcons in Week 12. The Saints have a 52.9% chance of taking home the title, which is well ahead of Atlanta (27.4%).     
5. Wild Card 1
The computer probably doesn't even need to do a Cowboys (8-3) projection anymore, because at this point, it feels like Dallas is locked into the fifth seed. 
6. Wild Card 2
Although the Seahawks (6-5) have lost three of their past four games, the computer is still projecting that Seattle will make the playoffs. We'll see how much the computer still likes the Seahawks after they play their next three games, which will come against the Cowboys, 49ers and Eagles. 
7. Wild Card 3
The biggest winner of our projection this week is the Green Bay Packers, who are now expected to steal the final NFC wild-card spot from the Vikings. According to the computer, it's going to be a dogfight for the final playoff spot with the Packers being given a 51.7% chance of making the playoffs while the Vikings are sitting right behind them at 49.4%. One big thing working in the Packers' favor is that they have the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL at .391 while Minnesota's is .554. 

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Vikings (49.4%), Falcons (33.9%), Rams (30.9%), Buccaneers (26.7%), Bears (1.0%), Giants (0.8%), Commanders (0.4%), Panthers (0.0%), Cardinals (0.0%). 

Note: The Cardinals and Panthers haven't technically eliminated from playoff contention yet, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has seen both teams play and it knows they're not getting in. 

Wild-card round projection


(7) Texans at (2) Ravens
(6) Browns at (3) Jaguars
(5) Steelers at (4) Dolphins

Bye: Chiefs


(7) Packers at (2) 49ers
(6) Seahawks at (3) Lions
(5) Cowboys at (4) Saints

Bye: Eagles