What a weird week in the NFL. Bailey Zappe of the New England Patriots threw three first-half touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Houston Texans were blown out by the New York Jets and the Tennessee Titans pulled off the biggest upset of the year against the Miami Dolphins.
Up 14 points with three minutes remaining in the game, it looked like the Dolphins were on their way to covering the spread. Unfortunately, that ended up being one of my three losses in my top five picks. I'm swearing off the Detroit Lions for good, as they continue to disappoint. They haven't covered the number since Oct. 30! Then, the Baltimore Ravens couldn't cover in overtime, since obviously they don't kick extra points in the extra period. We did call the Cincinnati Bengals upsetting the Indianapolis Colts and the Cleveland Browns winning by more than three points against the Jacksonville Jaguars. We also had the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos pulling off upsets straight-up as well. So, pretty solid week (9-5-1 ATS, 10-5 SU).
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Top five picks ATS record: 32-35-3
Overall ATS record: 91-108-9
Straight up record: 124-84
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
Jake Browning is 2-1 against the spread, so why would I now fade him at home against a team making a quarterback change? Maybe Nick Mullens is better than how Joshua Dobbs has fared over the past few weeks, but will that be enough?
I like how the Bengals have been playing. Browning has the highest completion percentage in any player's first three career starts in NFL history (79.3%), Cincinnati may have found a new weapon in Chase Brown and the defense has been impressive as well. I think Brian Flores may have a couple of surprises for Browning, but I want to ride with him as opposed to Mullens.
The pick: Bengals -3
Projected score: Bengals 17-13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
It feels like the Buccaneers have been on the road for the past month. This will be their sixth road game in their last eight contests! The Packers lost to the New York Giants on "Monday Night Football," which didn't really shock me since Green Bay can be so inconsistent. But, I'm feeling them at home this week.
Jordan Love is one passing touchdown away from tying Aaron Rodgers for the most passing touchdowns through 15 career starts by a Packer since 1950, which is pretty cool. Four of the Packers' six wins this season have come at home, so I'll take them with the number this low.
The pick: Packers -3
Projected score: Packers 24-20
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans are of course coming off of an emotional victory over the Dolphins, but despite all the emotions for Tennessee on this short week, I like the Titans in this spot. The Texans looked terrible last week against the Jets with no Tank Dell and a Nico Collins that left the game early due to injury. Brevin Jordan was Houston's leading receiver with three catches for 35 yards, and the Texans put up season-lows in points scored, total yards and third down conversions in their largest loss of the season. Now, we don't even know if C.J. Stroud will even suit up due to a concussion, while Collins, Will Anderson Jr., Blake Cashman, George Fant and Laremy Tunsil missed practice on Wednesday due to injuries.
Tennessee is 4-1 at home this year, and wearing the OILERS THROWBACKS. You know? The jerseys that Texans fans want to wear but they actually belong to the Titans franchise? Then, there's also this stat which actually blew my mind:
Mind-blowing: Titans RB Derrick Henry has 4 games with 200+ rushing yds & 2 rushing TDs vs. the Texans.
— Jordan Dajani (@JordanDajani) December 13, 2023
That's more than any RB has vs. all teams in NFL history.
Henry has 6 total games with 200+ rushing yards and 2 TDs. No one else has reached 4. pic.twitter.com/iUHsdGyMha
The pick: Titans -3
Projected score: Titans 20-14
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Rams lost to the Ravens last week in overtime in the rain, but man, their offense impressed me against Baltimore's vaunted defense. Matthew Stafford threw for 294 yards and three touchdowns, Kyren Williams ran for 114 yards, Cooper Kupp caught eight passes for 115 yards and a touchdown and rookie phenom Puka Nacua caught five passes for 84 yards. I do have major questions about this Rams defense as a whole, but they usually do a solid job against lesser teams.
The Commanders are coming off of their bye week, but Washington is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 contests following the bye. Sam Howell's offense is capable of putting up points, but the Commanders have lost three straight games by double digits, and their defense has given up 45 points in two straight games. The Rams are seven points better than the Commanders.
The pick: Rams -6.5
Projected score: Rams 33-23
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
I'm actually not surprised the Bills are favored over the Cowboys this week. I think they are underrated. Plus, all three of Dallas' losses this season have come on the road. I picked the Bills as road dogs to upset the reigning Super Bowl champions last week, and now, I'm following a similar trajectory. Give me the Cowboys as road dogs in Week 15.
This is a great chance for Dak Prescott to build on his MVP case. Over the last eight games, he's 7-1, averaging 305.5 passing yards per game and has thrown 23 touchdowns compared to two interceptions. It's the sixth instance of a quarterback throwing 23+ touchdowns and two or fewer interceptions in an eight-game span within a season. Four of the other five won MVP.
While the Bills did register a statement win over the Kansas City Chiefs, it wasn't a dominant performance by any means. The Bills were out-gained on offense, their leading receiver was a running back, they didn't score a touchdown on their final seven drives of the game and they recorded just one sack. Give me the Cowboys.
The pick: Cowboys +2
Projected score: Cowboys 27-24
Other Week 15 picks
Chargers (+3) 10-6 over Raiders
Colts (-1.5) 26-20 over Steelers
Lions (-4) 24-18 over Broncos
Falcons 10-9 over Panthers (+3)
Bears (+3) 20-13 over Browns
Dolphins 23-20 over Jets (+8.5)
Saints (-6) 27-17 over Giants
Chiefs (-8.5) 27-14 over Patriots
49ers (-12.5) 31-18 over Cardinals
Ravens 27-24 over Jaguars (+3.5)
Eagles 24-21 over Seahawks (+4)
