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  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    +420
    (67%)
    6-3 in Last 9 NFL Picks
    Under 41.5
    -115
    Over/Under
    Picked: Jan 19 @ 10:57am

    Analysis

    When I make my Same Game Parlays closer to Sunday, I’ll probably buy this number up a few points just to be safe. That’s always a betting philosophy I advise with SGPs. Regardless, with two excellent defenses and Denver starting a backup quarterback, I just can’t see this one turning into a Broncos-Bills type of shootout. I would’ve probably leaned Denver at home with a healthy Bo Nix, but it’s hard to imagine Jarrett Stidham pulling a Jeff Hostetler (see the 1990 Giants) and leading his team to the Super Bowl. Both of these teams have skated by with relatively easy schedules this season. This time, the Nix injury benefits New England significantly. Patriots 21, Broncos 13.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +445
    (58%)
    21-15-1 in Last 37 NFL O/U Picks
    Under 41.5
    -109
    Over/Under
    Picked: Jan 19 @ 2:59pm

    Analysis

    The Patriots defense has run roughshod over a pair of offenses with major injury concerns the last two weeks, and they'll get another with Jarrett Stidham at QB. Playcaller Zak Kuhr is in his bag, completely outmaneuvering the Chargers and Texans, and Stidham faces an uphill battle to score points. Drake Maye's offense has struggled with turnovers against two top-tier defenses and gets another here, and the margin between the Broncos and second place in sacks was more than the gap between No. 2 and 9. Maybe another defensive score ruins this Under like it did last week in Texans-Pats, but I have to back it above the key number of 41.
  • expert headshot
    Thomas Casale
    +60
    (57%)
    4-3 in Last 7 NFL ATS Picks
    DEN +5.5
    -115
    Spread
    Picked: Jan 20 @ 3:59pm

    Analysis

    I just can't get to 5.5 in this game even with the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. I'm not in the "Patriots are frauds" camp because they faced an easier schedule but the reality is they played two playoff games at home against two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Broncos would have been favored with Bo Nix, and while he's had a really good season, Denver's defense won't be out on Sunday. I think that unit is good enough to cause a couple of turnovers and keep the Broncos in the game. I expect Sean Payton to protect Stidham and try to get this game into the fourth quarter with a shot to win. I'll take the points.
  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    +81
    (57%)
    4-3 in Last 7 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    H. Henry
    Over 41.5
    -114
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Jan 20 @ 5:51pm

    Analysis

    With WR Stefon Diggs expected to be blanketed by CB Patrick Surtain, Drake Maye’s most reliable option could be TE Hunter Henry. The Broncos’ pass defense is tough overall, but they’ve had trouble containing tight ends, especially in the middle of the field, allowing the ninth-most yards per game (59.7) to the position. It’s common for young quarterbacks to lean on their tight ends in loud, hostile stadiums, and Henry fits that “safety valve” role perfectly. He’s been a steady presence for New England, ranking seventh among tight ends in target share (18.05%) and surpassing this yardage mark in 11 of 18 games this season. Expect Maye to look Henry’s way early and often.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +1916
    (62%)
    66-41 in Last 107 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Stidham
    Over 18.5
    -125
    Pass Completions
    Picked: Jan 20 @ 8:12pm

    Analysis

    B365/MGM (-120). Sean Payton is no stranger to having to gameplan for back-up quarterbacks (including two Jarrett Stidham games in 2023). Denver’s running game is lackluster, and this is a brutal matchup. The Patriots allowed a league best 3.6 yards per carry in weeks that star Milton Williams played the full game. Bo Nix was had the second lowest pressure rate amongst starting quarterbacks this season - I expect the Broncos offensive line to protect Stidham. Payton’s offense is built on quick reads, and despite not having Nix, I believe the Broncos will throw their typical amount. Nix averaged 22.8 completions per game in the regular season, and I don’t believe Stidham warrants a near 20% drop off. I have him closer to 20 completions.

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