There was no one more excited to see O.J. Howard return to Fantasy relevance in Week 10 than me. Well, except maybe Buccaneers' fans. What I'm not excited about is trying to read the tea leaves to see if it spells Fantasy success moving forward. But such is the state of the tight end position.
Seriously, imagine if a wide receiver had just posted 4-47-1 on seven targets. Now imagine it was his first game in double digits all season. Would we even care? We'd care about as much as we do about Kendrick Bourne's 4-42-1 on Monday Night Football. Unfortunately, Bourne doesn't play tight end.
While I prefer multiple weeks of volume to go on at the least, we're going to have to make an exception for Howard. He has elite talent, just played a ton of snaps, and he delivered on the volume he was given. Howard could absolutely go on a run like he did last year from Week 6 through 11. In those six games he caught 23 passes for 343 yards and four touchdowns. He was the No. 3 tight end in Fantasy.
Now, do we have enough information to make me feel confident Howard has turned the corner? Absolutely not. In fact, we have more information on Jacob Hollister, and if he was playing this week I'd have him ranked higher. If you have an extra roster spot, the right answer is to add both. If Howard is strong in his encore, you can drop Hollister next week, but you would have a safety valve in case Howard disappears.
Week 11 TE Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 11 at this time. Here's what it means:
The 49ers were initially "hopeful" Kittle would play in Week 11, but Kyle Shanahan told reporters Kittle will sit out Sunday's game against the Cardinals due to his knee injury. Ross Dwelley, a second-year undrafted free agent, is projected for five targets in Kittle's absence.
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Hooper is expected to miss about a month due to a knee injury, according to reports.
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Numbers to Know
- 25.5% - Noah Fant's target share since the Emmanuel Sanders trade. That's elite for a tight end.
- 28.4% - Mark Andrews' share of the Ravens air yards for the season.
- 24 - Targets for Jacob Hollister in his past four games. He may be worth holding through the bye.
- 82 - Snaps for O.J. Howard in Week 10, a career high. If you've held on to him this long, it might finally pay off.
- 1 - Darren Fells had one catch for 1 yard and one touchdown in his last game. He's been a top-five tight end since Week 5, but it doesn't look very sustainable.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Fant and Courtland Sutton are the only Broncos with more than 10 targets since Sanders was traded. There's a chance you add him and don't have to worry about tight end again. He faces the Texans, Chiefs and Lions in the Fantasy playoffs to close out his rookie season.
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There's no doubt Howard is the upside play and could be a league-winner down the stretch. He has more talent than anyone available, and in Week 10 he finally got the opportunity. Hopefully, Tampa Bay can't put the genie back in the bottle.
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DFS Plays
Waller's targets have been inconsistent, but I expect a big game from the Raiders offense, and that almost necessitates a good game from Waller. He's my favorite Raider to stack with Derek Carr, and I wouldn't rule out playing Josh Jacobs with them.
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Hopefully Brandon Allen scares everyone away, because Fant is dirt cheap on both sites.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | TE | NON-PPR | PPR |
1 | 1 | Hunter Henry | 11.34 | 17.43 |
2 | 2 | Travis Kelce | 9.94 | 15.21 |
3 | 3 | Darren Waller | 9.37 | 13.95 |
4 | 4 | Mark Andrews | 8.71 | 13.25 |
5 | 5 | Zach Ertz | 7.76 | 12.92 |
10 | 6 | Jason Witten | 6.09 | 10.65 |
6 | 7 | Jared Cook | 6.84 | 10.43 |
8 | 8 | Noah Fant | 6.44 | 10.19 |
7 | 9 | Greg Olsen | 6.62 | 10.05 |
12 | 10 | Gerald Everett | 5.87 | 9.67 |
11 | 11 | Nick Boyle | 6.01 | 9.55 |
14 | 12 | Mike Gesicki | 5.52 | 9.17 |
9 | 13 | Eric Ebron | 6.24 | 9.15 |
16 | 14 | Ross Dwelley | 5.24 | 9.07 |
20 | 15 | Vance McDonald | 4.82 | 8.84 |
13 | 16 | Jack Doyle | 5.57 | 8.68 |
18 | 17 | Dallas Goedert | 5.14 | 8.34 |
15 | 18 | O.J. Howard | 5.49 | 8.31 |
17 | 19 | Darren Fells | 5.16 | 8.16 |
23 | 20 | Irv Smith | 4.34 | 7.78 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 11 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
