If you take a step back from all the noise -- and boy, is there noise -- all that's really happened in the NBA Finals is that the higher seed has won its first two home games. It's not exactly a unique phenomenon, and plenty of teams have teams have come back from down 2-0 to win a playoff series -- LeBron James-led teams have been especially adept at it.
But for some reason it feels different this time around.
After nearly pulling off a major upset in Game 1, Cleveland looked disillusioned in Game 2: The defense was sloppy, LeBron looked somewhat human and the supporting cast was nonexistent outside of brief spurts from George Hill and Kevin Love.
Against a team as good as the Warriors, sticking to the same game plan that got the Cavaliers this far just isn't going to cut it. So, with two games in the books, Game 3 seems like a perfect time for Tyronn Lue to make some adjustments to avoid receiving a 3-0 death sentence.
Who knows whether they'll work, but at this point the consensus is that they have to try something. Here are three tweaks the Cavs can make for Game 3, and how the Warriors can counter them:
1. Start Jeff Green instead of Tristan Thompson
The strategy: Cleveland beat up Golden State on the offensive boards in Game 1 (19-4), which has been part of the blueprint for defeating the Warriors since OKC built a 3-1 lead on them in the 2016 Western Conference finals. The Cavs outrebounded the Warriors 307 to 279 to win the 2016 title in seven games, with Thompson leading the way with nearly four offensive boards per game. But Thompson hasn't been as effective as he has been in previous years, and even earlier rounds of these playoffs, collecting just five offensive rebounds in two games.
Against the Warriors you need as much offense as possible to keep pace, so starting Green and moving Love to center could be the move for Game 3. The lineup of James, Love, Green, Hill and J.R. Smith has an offensive rating of 125.4 in 19 minutes this postseason according to NBA.com, and LeBron is at full strength when surrounded by four players capable of making an open 3-pointer.
Why it won't work: Oh yeah, defense -- that same Cavs lineup has a defensive rating of 118.1 in the playoffs, and the Warriors play small ball better than anyone else. Provided Andre Iguodala is healthy enough to play in Game 3, Kerr can deploy the Hamptons Five -- one of the most devastating offensive units of all time -- against a defensively inferior lineup. That pretty much spells disaster for Cleveland.
2. Double-team Steph Curry off of screens
The strategy: So far in the Finals, the Cavs have stuck with the "switch everything" approach, even whilst Steph Curry is transforming into a human torch before our very eyes. Curry has feasted on mismatches, either pulling up for 3s or blowing right by the bigger defender and getting to the rim, where he's been an elite finisher. Here's a video that showcases both, with Curry first breaking Nance's ankles for a step-back 3, then getting right past Love for a layup.
In order to stop Curry's assault (31.0 points per game on 7 of 14 3-point shooting in the Finals), the Cavs could opt to trap him off of the screen, forcing him to get rid of the ball.
Why it won't work: We've seen this movie before -- teams tried double-teaming Curry a lot back in 2015. There's a reason not many do it anymore. When trapped, Curry will happily give the ball up to playmaker extraordinaire Draymond Green, who then operates in a 4-on-3 scenario with a bevy of options, like he did here in the 2015 Finals.
And that was with Iguodala, Livingston and Festus Ezeli on the court. Now imagine that with Klay Thompson in one corner, Kevin Durant in the other, and perhaps Kevon Looney or JaVale McGee in the dunker spot by the rim. Not a pretty picture for the Cavs.
3. Play Rodney Hood instead of Jordan Clarkson
The strategy: If there's been a player who's drawn more Twitter hate than J.R. Smith in these playoffs, it's Clarkson, who has averaged 4.9 points on 28 percent shooting with one total assist in 12.8 minutes per game dating back to Game 1 of the Boston series. He's not afraid to shoot the ball, but it hasn't been going in. Against the Warriors, you can't afford to have someone on the court who monopolizes the offense AND doesn't produce on either end of the court.
Analysts have been clamoring for Rodney Hood or Cedi Osman to take those minutes, and it appears Hood will at least get a look. On Tuesday Lue said the Cavs would "give Rodney a chance," so we can expect him to get at least a few early minutes in Game 3. Hood is a capable scorer (at least in theory), who at 6-8 is big enough to switch defensively. That's the kind of two-way threat that could help the Cavs' bench stay afloat.
Why it won't work: As poorly as Clarkson has played, his minutes have actually been a positive for Cleveland. The lineup of Clarkson, LeBron, Green, Kyle Korver and Larry Nance Jr. is actually a plus-3 in the two NBA Finals games so far, with a net rating of plus-25.8. This isn't to say that Clarkson is the reason why, and that they won't be better with Hood in his place, but it's clear that the Cavs haven't fallen behind during Clarkson's minutes. His ability to handle the ball, something that Hood lacks, also provides James with some much-needed in-game rest opportunities.
Bottom line
The Warriors are incredible, so you can't keep sticking with something that isn't working -- they'll pick you apart. The Cavs are an experienced group, and can hang their hats on the historic 3-1 comeback to win the title just two seasons ago, so they're smart enough to know when to pull a rabbit out of their hats. Lue has seen this version of the Warriors for two games now, and he'll likely deploy some strategic changes in Game 3. Cleveland just has to hope that they're the right ones.
