The Broncos and Peyton Manning are coming off a win in an defensive struggle, while the Chiefs dispatched the Texans with relative ease. Now, the two division rivals square off on Thursday night to determine who will earn the early division lead.
Here are some advanced stats to consider heading into the Thursday night showdown.
1. Peyton's problems under pressure: For years, Manning has been one of the quarterbacks lauded for his seemingly innate ability to subtly drift away from pressure in the pocket and make accurate throws at all levels of the field.
Beyond that, he's always been known for being one of the few quarterbacks who routinely works magic against the blitz ... almost as if pressure never really phased him.
After a shaky performance in Week 1's win over the Baltimore Ravens that was eerily similar to the home playoff loss to the Colts last January, many are worried Manning could be starting a downward spiral in the twilight of his career.
While two games months apart don't provide enough evidence to indicate that, check Manning's under-pressure statistics from 2013 onward.
| Peyton Manning when under pressure | ||||
| Accuracy % | Sacks Taken | TDs | INTs | |
| Manning, 2013 | 69% | 17 | 6 | 3 |
| Manning, 2014 | 50% | 16 | 8 | 3 |
| Manning, Week 1 2015 | 51.3% | 4 | 0 | 1 |
The accuracy-percentage dip and sacks-taken spike are striking.
Even in 2012, when Manning threw one touchdown and had four interceptions while under pressure, his accuracy percentage was a respectable 64, which placed him seventh in the NFL.
At his age, without much mobility, if Manning can't thrive against pressure like he used to, the Broncos passing attack could be in trouble this season ... and in this game against Justin Houston.
2. Broncos star cornerback tandem: Which team has the best cornerback tandem in football? In all likelihood, most answers wouldn't start with the Denver Broncos, but they most certainly could argue that Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are tops in the league.
Here's how Denver's top cover guys fared last season and in the dominant effort against Joe Flacco and the Ravens in Week 1.
| Aqib Talib in coverage | ||
| 2014 (Rank) | Week 1, 2015 (Rank) | |
| PFF Coverage Grade | 2.8 (27) | 2.8 (5) |
| QB Rating Allowed | 72.2 (11) | 30.2 (9) |
| Yards per Cover Snap | 0.98 (16) | 0.81 (34) |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | ||
As reliable as Talib has been, as things often go in the NFL, he was the prized free-agent acquisition yet the undrafted free-agent out of Kansas, Chris Harris, has actually been better.
There's a legitimate argument that, despite a relative lack of fanfare and publicity, Harris is the finest cornerback in football.
| Chris Harris in coverage | ||
| 2014 (Rank) | Week 1, 2015 (Rank) | |
| PFF Coverage Grade | 27.2 (1) | 2.3 (8) |
| QB Rating Allowed | 47.8 (3) | 79.2 (48) |
| Yards per Cover Snap | 0.57 (2) | 0.39 (11) |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | ||
Alex Smith's no-touchdown-passes-to-wideouts streak has been well document and, yes, it does stretch back to the 2013 campaign.
If you were to place a bet as to when that streak ends ... probably wait at least another week.
3. Second coming of Gronkowski? When it comes to deciding the top tight end in the league, Rob Gronkowski is alone on his own planet ... a planet loaded with inadequate defensive backs and plenty of dance parties.
At this point, it's almost sacrilegious to the football gods to name another tight end in the same breath as Gronk, but the Chiefs may have a second coming of the king of the tight ends in Travis Kelce.
Hear me out.
First, check this Pro Day comparison.
| Rob Gronkowski vs. Travis Kelce | ||||
| Pro Day | Height / Weight | 40-yard dash | Vertical Leap | Three-cone drill |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6-6 / 264 | 4.68 | 33.5" | 7.18 |
| Travis Kelce | 6-5 / 255 | 4.61 | 35" | 7.09 |
Gronkowski is slightly bigger. However, Kelce was more a explosive athlete coming into the NFL.
Regardless of Pro Day figures, it's all about production in pro football, and Gronkowski has set the bar extremely high.
Then again, take a peak at how Kelce has produced in his last five games as a member of the Chiefs.
| Travis Kelce's Last Five Games | ||||
| Targets | Catches | Yards | TDs | |
| Week 14, 2014 | 9 | 7 | 110 | 0 |
| Week 15, 2014 | 6 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Week 16, 2014 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Week 17, 2014 | 8 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Week 1, 2015 | 6 | 6 | 106 | 2 |
| Averages | 7.2 | 5.8 | 78.0 | 0.6 |
Darn good, don't you think?
Now a glimpse at Gronkowski's last five regular-season games ...
| Rob Gronkowski's Last Five Games | ||||
| Targets | Catches | Yards | TDs | |
| Week 12, 2014 | 12 | 7 | 98 | 0 |
| Week 13, 2014 | 11 | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| Week 14, 2014 | 8 | 3 | 96 | 1 |
| Week 15, 2014 | 10 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Week 1, 2015 | 8 | 9 | 94 | 3 |
| Averages | 9.8 | 5.8 | 81.2 | 1.2 |
Although Gronk has seen nearly three more targets per game, the two monster tight ends have averaged the exact same number of catches per contest with similar yards per game.
Gronk does have a sizable edge in the touchdown department, but is Alex Smith vs. Tom Brady the only major difference here? Definitely could be part of it.
Though the future appears to be exceptionally bright for Kelce, he has a ways to go before he "catches" Gronkowski.
| Career averages for Gronkowski, Kelce | ||||
| Targets per game | Catches per game | Yards per game | TDs per game | |
| Rob Gronkowski | 7.07 | 4.72 | 67.7 | 0.86 |
| Travis Kelce (2014-present) | 5.16 | 4.05 | 53.7 | 0.38 |
Averaging over four receptions and 50 yards with Smith as your quarterback is nothing for Kelce to be ashamed about, that's for sure.
4. Broncos' stunningly deep pass-rush: The Broncos pass-rush begins and ends with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, right?
Wrong.
In Week 1, Denver flaunted their super-deep pass-rushing front seven with continual harassment of Joe Flacco.
| Broncos' pass rush vs. Ravens | ||||
| Name | Week 1 PFF Pass-Rushing Grade | Sacks | Hits | Hurries |
| DeMarcus Ware | 8.5 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| Von Miller | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Shaq Barrett | 2.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vance Walker | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Source: Pro Football Focus | ||||
The Ravens quarterback was pressured on 64.7 percent of his drop backs ... a truly astounding number.
Not shown in the chart is rookie first-round pass-rusher Shane Ray, and on the other end of the career arc spectrum, 34-year-old Antonio Smith, who registered a plus-18.3 PFF pass-rushing grade a season ago.
It's really an embarrassment of riches in Denver.
5. Jamaal Charles' efficiency: Since Week 2 of 2014, when an injured Charles recorded just two carries for four yards and one grab for eight yards -- against the Broncos -- here's how the All-Pro runner has contributed on a per-touch basis.
| Jamaal Charles over last year | ||
| Touches | Yards | Yards per touch |
| 21 | 108 | 5.14 |
| 16 | 84 | 5.25 |
| 24 | 107 | 4.46 |
| 18 | 111 | 6.17 |
| 22 | 88 | 4.00 |
| 18 | 118 | 6.56 |
| 22 | 178 | 8.09 |
| 23 | 122 | 5.30 |
| 14 | 59 | 4.21 |
| 12 | 111 | 9.25 |
| 13 | 53 | 4.08 |
| 14 | 77 | 5.50 |
| 15 | 62 | 4.13 |
| 21 | 103 | 4.90 |
Noteworthy tidbit from that chart: Charles has managed eight outings in which he's averaged more than five yards per touch compared to six games under that mark.
Remember too, he has averaged an outrageous 5.46 yards per attempt in his NFL career, which is the second-highest among running backs or fullbacks in league history.
With the Chiefs' receivers facing Talib and Harris, Charles, as usual, will have to be a key aspect of Kansas City's offense.
Prediction: Inside Arrowhead Stadium, I like the Chiefs in this game. The Broncos pass-rush is ridiculous, and their corners are as stingy as they get, but Kansas City's offense is based around quick passing, running the football -- which controls the clock -- and playing sound defense.
This will be a tightly contested battle that will come down to a field goal in the fourth quarter. And, yes, worries about Manning will continue. Chiefs 24, Broncos 21.
