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Teams that came into the season with vastly different expectations meet Monday when the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers face the Old Dominion Monarchs in the 2023 Famous Toastery Bowl. The Hilltoppers (7-5) were expected to be a top contender in Conference USA but struggled against top teams and finished fourth. Meanwhile, ODU (6-6) doubled its 2022 victory total by winning its final two games and finished third in the Sun Belt. These teams met seven times when Old Dominion was part of C-USA, and Western Kentucky won six of those. WKU quarterback Austin Reed will reportedly opt out of this game, which has created substantial line movement after the Hilltoppers opened as small favorites.

Kickoff at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. is set for 2:30 p.m. ET. The Monarchs are now 6.5-point favorites in the latest Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion odds via SportsLine consensus. The over/under for total points scored is down to 48 after opening at 55. Before making any Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky picks, be sure to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a strong profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model enters bowl season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on WKU vs. Old Dominion and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Old Dominion vs. WKU:

  • WKU vs. ODU spread: Monarchs -6.5
  • WKU vs. ODU over/under: 48 points
  • WKU vs. ODU money line: Hilltoppers +198, Monarchs -246
  • WKU: 5-6 ATS this season 
  • ODU: Allowed more than 250 passing yards in three of their past nine.
  • WKU vs. ODU picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • WKU vs. ODU live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Old Dominion can cover

The Monarchs are 7-5 against the spread this season, 4-1 ATS after a victory, and could come into this one more motivated. This is just their third bowl appearance, and their only victory came in the 2016 Bahamas Bowl. Ten of ODU's 12 games this season have been decided by one score, with their only big loss coming against unbeaten Liberty. They battled to the end in a 30-27 loss to James Madison, unbeaten and ranked No. 25 at the time, at the end of October.

ODU quarterback Grant Wilson leads a balanced offense that should exploit a shaky WKU defense. The Hilltoppers allow 428 yards per game (117th in FBS) and 189.8 on the ground (123rd). Wilson has thrown for 2,026 yards and 16 touchdowns, and receivers Reymello Murphy and Kelby Williams both average more than 18 yards per catch. But running backs Kadarius Calloway and Keshawn Wicks, who have combined for 1,146 rushing yards, should lead the way. See which team to pick here.

Why Western Kentucky cover

The Hilltoppers defense allows a ton of yards but can also produce big plays, while ODU has struggled mightily in the trenches on both sides of the ball. WKU has 25 takeaways, tied for third most in FBS, and is plus-7 in turnover margin while ODU is minus-1. The Monarchs have allowed 61 sacks, easily the most in the nation, while the defense has produced just 15. The Hilltoppers allowed nine, tied for second-fewest, which is one reason they have an elite passing offense.

Though Reed's presence will be missed, NFL Draft prospect Malachi Corley is expected to play, giving WKU a big-play option at receiver. The junior has 75 catches for 958 yards and 11 receiving touchdowns this season, most in C-USA. The Hilltoppers score 29.8 points per game and average 286 passing yards (19th in FBS), and they'll hope quarterback Turner Helton, the nephew of head coach Tyson Helton, can keep it rolling. See which team to pick here.

How to make Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 57 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine

So who wins Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion, and which side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that's up over $2,000 on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.