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As we stand on the precipice of NFL Free Agency, with the tampering period officially opening, it is alarming how much has already changed in 2025. Since I first released my way-too-early projections back in February we've seen Deebo Samuel traded to the Washington Commanders, DK Metcalf traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Geno Smith traded to Las Vegas Raiders, and Davante Adams got an early start on free agency by agreeing to terms with the Los Angeles Rams. Of course, most these deals won't be official until the start of the new league year, wink wink. 

The next few weeks are going to be a whirlwind of activity and it may be hard to keep up, that's what we're here for. Let's start with my initial projections for all the players who have changed teams via free agency or trade. I have also included projections for players who were free agents but have already chosen to stay home. Many of these players were not included in my February projections because we didn't know who they would be playing for. One note, I included Tee Higgins in the players staying home section, but he could still be traded after the Bengals placed the franchise tag on him

Free agents on the move

Davante Adams, WR, Los Angeles Rams
2025 projection: 89 receptions for 1,118 yards and 9.1 touchdowns on 151 targets
WR14

Adams will be a player that I rank lower than his projection (32 years old) and the fact that he is joining an offense that already has a true number one wide receiver in Puka Nacua. But it is worth noting that Adams has earned at least 10 targets per game in seven straight seasons, and Garrett Wilson didn't negatively Adams' target rate at all last year. I dropped Puka Nacua's projected target share by one point due to this move, but if Adams maintains his level of play the impact on Nacua could be more significant.

Traded players on the move

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
2025 projection: 64 receptions for 921.9 yards and 5.2 touchdowns on 106 targets
WR41

Metcalf's projection probably seems too low. It does to me as well. But Arthur Smith's offenses have averaged 481 pass attempts per season over the last year years and as of March 10 we still have no idea who their quarterback is. If it is Russell Wilson then expect a boost for Metcalf, and another ding for George Pickens, who saw his target share projection drop from 25% to 22% on the news of this trade.

Geno Smith, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
2025 projection: 4,263 yards, 24.4 touchdowns, 14.6 interceptions on 609 pass attempts
265 yards and 1.6 TDs on 53 rush attempts
QB20

Smith's projection didn't change too much with the move from Seattle to Las Vegas. I expect more pass attempts but slightly worse efficiency. He was a mid-QB2 and he is a mid-QB2. That could change if the Raiders go get him a true number one wide receiver to play alongside Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, who both look like big winners after this move.

Deebo Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders
2025 projection: 61 catches for 797.2 yards and 4.9 TDs on 97 targets
246.3 yards and 3.4 TDs on 50 rush attempts
WR26

I think Samuel is the clear WR2 behind Terry McLaurin and I see a perfect fit in Kliff Kingsbury's offense. As bad as 2024 was, I am not convinced that Samuel is done at 29 years old. 

Christian Kirk, WR, Houston Texans
2025 projection: 69 catches for 941.7 yards and 4.5 TDs on 113 targets
WR39

Kirk should complement Nico Collins well, but he may be more of a help for CJ Stroud than his Fantasy managers.

Free agents who are staying home

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
2025 projection: 95 catches for 1,250 yards and 8.8 touchdowns on 147 targets
WR9

This is a 17-game projection and Higgins has never played 17 games in a season, so you may want to downgrade him if you worry about injury risk.

Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2025 projection: 1,098 yards and 4.9 TDs on 244 rush attempts
51 catches for 394 yards and 2.4 TDs on 64 targets
RB19

Like Adams, age will cause me to rank Jones lower than he projects. He also carries some risk in the next two months and the Vikings could add competition in free agency or the draft.

Marquise Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
2025 projection: 57.3 catches for 619.4 yards and 4.1 TDs on 101 targets
WR51

Brown needs to be drafted higher than his projection. An injury or suspension for Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy could push Brown into WR3 territory or higher. 

Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders
2025 projection: 69 catches for 644.7 yards and 5.9 TDs on 97 targets
TE10

If Ertz stays healthy he is the definition of a low-end TE1. Like many players on this list, age is a major concern.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
2025 projection: 61 receptions for 626.4 yards and 3.3 TDs on 83 targets
TE18

A huge chunk of Gesicki's production came when Higgins was out. If the Bengals trade Higgins, expect Gesicki to project as a top12 option.