Earlier in the week it looked like we could be without both Todd Gurley and David Johnson. Thankfully Johnson is trending in the right direction, but Gurley received the doubtful tag, which means we expect him to sit out.
Without Gurley I'd expect a heavy dose of Malcolm Brown, at least in regards to the percentage of carries. The Rams have gone extremely pass-heavy the past two weeks and that may continue in Week 6. I project Brown for 17 touches which makes him a top-20 back in both formats even with a difficult matchup.
The other back that deserves attention is Darrell Henderson. You can't trust him in your lineup, but the Rams have talked about him getting more involved and I currently project him to get most of the targets out of the backfield for the Rams. This could be the week he's finally unleashed.
I have running back projections below as well as my favorite DFS plays, which have changed since the start of the week.
Week 6 RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 6 at this time. Here's what it means:
With Gallman and Saquon Barkley out, we have to strongly consider Jon Hilliman as a volume play against the Patriots.
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Samuels is on crutches and could miss up to a month. This is a boost for James Conner, especially in PPR.
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Hopefully this is just a one-week absence but Malcolm Brown is close to must-start.
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Numbers to know
- 27 - Tackles broken by Chris Carson this season. For the time being it looks like he's tightened his grip on the role in Seattle.
- 34.6% - Broken tackle rate for Malcolm Brown. If Gurley is out, you're starting Brown.
- 3 - Receptions for Sony Michel in Week 5. That's a career-high and a game-changer for his Fantasy value if it becomes a regular thing.
- 1.2 - Yards after contact per attempt for Devonta Freeman. No running back with at least 20 carries owns a lower mark.
- 31.3% - Broken-tackle rate for Duke Johnson. Only Alvin Kamara has been better in that regard. His teammate, Carlos Hyde, is at 11%.
- 40.8% - of Derrick Henry's rush attempts have come with eight defenders in the box. That only makes his production that much more impressive.
Matchups that matter
Bill Callahan has said Washington will run the ball more and it should have no problem doing just that against a Dolphins team giving up 175 yards per game on the ground.
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Howard has played very well of late, but it's tough to trust him against a Vikings defense that has only allowed one running back to score double-digit Fantasy points this season.
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Waiver Wire Targets
Edmonds has top-10 upside if Johnson is ruled out. The one advantage he has over Brown is that I wouldn't expect him to have to sharing passing downs.
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Brown is a top-15 option with Gurley ruled out.
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Smith has been much more productive than Freeman on a per-carry basis, and this is a good matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. At the very least, Smith has a chance to score a short-yardage touchdown, but I wouldn't be surprised if he starts to see a bigger share of the work in Atlanta. He's averaging 2 more yards per attempt than Freeman.
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I don't have any new justification, but Mattison is going to remain at the top of this list because of his situation. He's the clear handcuff to a back who has yet to play 16 games in a season. He's also on a team that strives to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
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Much like Mattison, Pollard is just one injury away from a featured role in a very good situation. I prefer Mattison because of Cook's injury history, but both Pollard and Mattison need to be rostered virtually everywhere.
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Sean McVay mentioned this could be the week Henderson gets more involved if Gurley is out. There's no way you could start him but it's definitely time to stash him again.
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DFS Plays
Brown will be chalky because he's priced like a backup but I'll have a hard time fading him. He'll be in 100% of my cash lineups and close to 75% of my tournament lineups. I'd rather be heavy on him than light on him in comparison to the field. Locking him in as your RB2 allows you to play just about anyone you want this week.
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We're always guessing when it comes to contrarian plays on a Tuesday, but I feel pretty confident Lindsay's ownership will be low. He's in a time share against a good defense, right? Kind of. Lindsay had 19 touches last week. He had 25 in Week 3 against the Packers. He only has one game this season with fewer that 15. As for the matchup, the Titans are good defensively but they're also allowing 4.6 yards per carry to running backs. I'll take Lindsay's volume and big-play upside at this cost and low ownership.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | RB | FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 25.04 | 31.63 |
2 | 2 | Dalvin Cook | 20.50 | 24.66 |
3 | 3 | Alvin Kamara | 18.91 | 24.45 |
5 | 4 | Leonard Fournette | 16.51 | 20.70 |
4 | 5 | Nick Chubb | 17.02 | 19.45 |
9 | 6 | Le'Veon Bell | 14.07 | 19.45 |
6 | 7 | Aaron Jones | 15.11 | 19.42 |
8 | 8 | David Johnson | 14.26 | 18.46 |
18 | 9 | James White | 11.89 | 17.71 |
17 | 10 | James Conner | 11.95 | 17.66 |
7 | 11 | Ezekiel Elliott | 14.65 | 16.97 |
13 | 12 | Phillip Lindsay | 13.63 | 16.80 |
12 | 13 | Chris Carson | 13.78 | 16.60 |
11 | 14 | Mark Ingram | 14.00 | 15.59 |
21 | 15 | Austin Ekeler | 10.85 | 15.22 |
10 | 16 | Derrick Henry | 14.03 | 15.11 |
15 | 17 | Malcolm Brown | 13.44 | 14.38 |
14 | 18 | Sony Michel | 13.55 | 14.26 |
19 | 19 | Melvin Gordon | 11.31 | 14.25 |
27 | 20 | Devonta Freeman | 9.80 | 13.97 |
30 | 21 | Chris Thompson | 9.40 | 13.77 |
16 | 22 | Kerryon Johnson | 12.05 | 13.69 |
25 | 23 | Damien Williams | 10.03 | 13.40 |
24 | 24 | Joe Mixon | 10.10 | 13.17 |
29 | 25 | Jon Hilliman | 9.40 | 13.00 |
31 | 26 | Royce Freeman | 9 | 12.69 |
20 | 27 | Tevin Coleman | 11.15 | 12.44 |
22 | 28 | Matt Breida | 10.27 | 12.42 |
34 | 29 | Kenyan Drake | 9.12 | 11.98 |
23 | 30 | Jordan Howard | 10.11 | 11.86 |
32 | 31 | Lesean McCoy | 9.33 | 10.85 |
26 | 32 | Carlos Hyde | 9.99 | 10.73 |
33 | 33 | Ronald Jones | 9.25 | 10.61 |
35 | 34 | Jamaal Williams | 7.35 | 10.58 |
28 | 35 | Adrian Peterson | 9.65 | 10.05 |
37 | 36 | Chase Edmonds | 7.23 | 9.92 |
38 | 37 | Duke Johnson | 7.16 | 8.95 |
39 | 38 | Miles Sanders | 6.93 | 8.38 |
36 | 39 | Peyton Barber | 7.27 | 8.32 |
43 | 40 | Darrell Henderson | 5.31 | 8 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising running back could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 6 Fantasy rankings for every position, plus see which RB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 20, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
