Quarterback is one of the easiest positions to draft in the preseason because in a standard league there are more starting quarterbacks than there are lineup slots. There were 19 that I was fine with drafting as my starter.
That doesn't feel quite as comfortable when we get to Week 1 because it means you're constantly ranking good quarterbacks outside the top-12, which is a signal for many to sit them.
This week's case in point? Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is on the road against the consensus No. 1 defense in the league. His team has an implied point total of 21.75 points, so it's hard to expect more than two touchdowns from him. It's also his first real game in a new offense. For all those reasons, Rodgers comes out as No. 16 in my Week 1 rankings.
Does that mean I want you to sit him? Not necessarily. You've got to know yourself. Are you going to feel silly if you sit Rodgers and he scores a ton of points? Personally, I wouldn't. I'd feel more silly starting Rodgers over someone I expect to perform better.
One of the quarterbacks I expect to perform better is Mitchell Trubisky. Trubisky scored the same number of Fantasy points per game as Rodgers last year and is now in his second year in Matt Nagy's system. He's at home and he has a more favorable matchup. For me, he's a top-10 quarterback in Week and a top-12 quarterback for 2019.
With a position as deep as quarterback these are the types of dilemmas we're going to face all season. You shouldn't feel implored to bench any quarterback I rank outside of the top 12, but I won't shy away from it either.
Week 1 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 30 - The number of pass attempts Lamar Jackson said to expect on a week-to-week basis. Last year he averaged 22.6.
- 7.1 - Aaron Rodgers' yards per attempt over the past four seasons combined. He doesn't have one season above 7.4 in that stretch. Was that all Mike McCarthy's fault?
- 274.2 - Dak Prescott's passing yards per game after Amari Cooper arrived in Dallas in 2018. Prescott is a top-10 quarterback for me in Week 1.
- 313 - Patrick Mahomes passing yards vs. Jacksonville last year. You may have heard about how the Jaguars shut down Mahomes last year. He still averaged 8.2 yards per attempt.
- 0 - This is how much confidence I have in any Kyler Murray projection. We haven't seen this offense yet, but the offensive line scares me to death. I'm very interested in having Murray on my bench but I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him.
- 10.6 - Tom Brady's Y/A when targeting Josh Gordon last year. With Gordon and Edelman healthy and a matchup against a high-powered Steelers offense, I'm perfectly fine starting Brady in Week 1.
- 321.6 - Drew Brees' passing yards per game at home last year. That's 104 more than he averaged on the road. Brees was one of my busts this season but he's top 12 in a Week 1 home matchup against a Texans defense without Jadeveon Clowney.
- 19 - Vegas' implied points total for the Buffalo Bills against the New York Jets. The Bengals and Dolphins are the only teams with a lower total. That should not make you feel good about Josh Allen.
Matchups that matter
Ryan is on the road against a Vikings defense that was the second stingiest against QBs in 2018. He's not in my top-15 this week; I'd rather start Tom Brady and Philip Rivers among others.
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This is quite a test for Matt LaFleur's first game as a head coach. He and Rodgers will face the best defense in the league on the road in primetime. I understand you aren't sitting Rodgers, but I'd rather start Jackson against the Dolphins.
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The Bills allowed the fewest Fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2018. Darnold may break out in 2019, but I wouldn't bet on it starting in Week 1.
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This is a dream matchup for both Winston and Garoppolo. Two very good offenses against two bottom-five defenses in terms of Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This should be the game to stack in DFS. I'm starting Winston, but after an uneven preseason I'd like to see it from Garoppolo first.
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Waiver Wire Targets
Trubisky is available in a little more than a quarter of leagues and should get off to a good start in Week 1 against the Packers. This is an improved defense, but not one that I'd expect to be in the top half of the league. Trubisky was the No. 12 quarterback on a per-game basis in 2018 and now enters his second year in Matt Nagy's system.
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Like I said, I don't like the idea of starting Darnold against the Bills in Week 1, but I do like the idea of holding on to him as a second quarterback. Darnold is available in more than half of leagues, showed promise in 2018, and has a much improved cast of weapons. He also gets the Browns at home on Monday Night Football next week in a game that figures to be much more high-scoring than this one.
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DFS Plays
Jackson's floor is secure because of his rushing production but don't underestimate the ceiling. Jackson should be able to do whatever he wants against a Dolphins team that has thrown in the towel before the season starts. Jackson is my second highest projected quarterback on the main slate but he's tied for eighth in price. Jackson is my top cash game play on the slate, but he has enough upside to play in tournaments also.
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Jackson and Kyler Murray figure to draw a lot of of ownership due to their ability to succeed on the ground and the air. Of course, Prescott has that as well as a great matchup, and I'm estimating he'll have low ownership to boot. If Ezekiel Elliott doesn't play Week 1 I'd be even more inclined to use Prescott who could see an increase in volume because of his running back's absence. Prescott is my No. 4 quarterback on the main slate.
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Heath's projections
Rank | QB | FPTs |
1 | DeShaun Watson | 28.02 |
2 | Patrick Mahomes | 26.58 |
3 | Cam Newton | 25.82 |
4 | Jameis Winston | 25.73 |
5 | Dak Prescott | 25.64 |
6 | Carson Wentz | 25.50 |
7 | Drew Brees | 25.21 |
8 | Baker Mayfield | 24.96 |
9 | Lamar Jackson | 24.84 |
10 | Tom Brady | 24.17 |
11 | Mitchell Trubisky | 24.17 |
12 | Jared Goff | 24.00 |
