Welcome to Wednesday's edition of the With the First Pick newsletter. Spring is in the air, the 2023 NFL Draft is two weeks away, and we were treated to a trade yesterday, seemingly out of nowhere. Man, life is good.
You probably know this by now, but in case you don't -- we've rebranded the Pick Six newsletter through the end of April. And I, CBS Sports NFL Draft analyst Chris Trapasso, will be with you every step of the way. This daily newsletter's sole purpose is to track everything transpiring in the NFL and spin it into a draft angle.
Before I begin, here's your daily reminder to tell all your buddies and that one uncle who's always texting you mock draft links to sign up for the With the First Pick newsletter. Just click here and share this link with them.
Today's NFL mock draft 🔮: Falcons trade back, pick Bijan
Wednesdays are mock draft days for me, and I got a little saucy with one of my last mocks before the actual draft by featuring three first-round trades, one of which did not include a quarterback. Related to this: does anyone else feel like the Falcons are floating into no man's land at No. 8 overall, especially given their needs?
If we are to truly believe they won't go quarterback, and names like Will Anderson Jr. and Tyree Wilson aren't available, they may be faced with a conundrum: pick Jalen Carter or trade back. In this mock, they do glide back -- the Commanders move up for Anthony Richardson! -- and are still able to pick Bijan Robinson to pair with Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield. There's probably not another coach in the league who'd be more smitten with three legitimate feature backs on the roster than Falcons head coach Arthur Smith.
Other notable prospect-team pairings in my mock:
1. Carolina Panthers - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
2. Houston Texans - C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
10. Philadelphia Eagles - Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
23. Minnesota Vikings - Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
29. New Orleans Saints - Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Grading the Lions-Falcons Jeff Okudah trade 🖊
The No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft was moved Tuesday, and our staffer Jordan Dajani graded the move that shipped Okudah to Atlanta for a 2023 fifth-round pick. To prove not everything under the sun is coming up Lions this offseason, here's part of what Jordan wrote explaining his grade of "C+" for Detroit. (His Falcons grade is higher.)
"You could make the argument this isn't "terrible" compensation for a player the Lions were going to move on from, but still, this is a former No. 3 overall pick."
The injuries really complicate things here and likely pushed Okudah's trade value to a mid-Day 3 selection. The top-three-pick label only lasts so long in the NFL, and the Lions probably realized they weren't going to extend Okudah, much less pick up his fifth-year option. At least Detroit didn't fall victim to the sunk-cost fallacy and hold onto Okudah for longer, which likely would've lessened his trade value even more.
'Better-Than Team': Prospects Pete Prisco likes better than scouts 👀
Of all my colleagues' articles, this is the one I look forward to the most every year. Pete absolutely does his homework -- plenty of it -- scouring the film during the pre-draft process, and I love and respect how he's unafraid to publish an annual article like this one. Then again, Pete's not afraid to do much of anything, so the Better-Than Team is exquisitely on-brand for him.
Of course, Pete isn't eventually proven right with all his selections, but the Better-Than Team's track record is damn impressive. Former "captains" include Lavonte David, Jason Pierre-Paul, Jimmie Ward and Grady Jarrett. Other selections include Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle. Pete is good at this!
Here are some notable 2023 selections of the 25 picks Pete made:
- North Carolina WR Antoine Green
- Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
- Oklahoma WR Marvin Mims
- UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson
- Liberty WR Demario Douglas
Trade up, trade down, or stay put 🤔?
It's the age-old question all teams must wrestle with as their pick is approaching in every round. Is there a prospect they cannot live without that they need to climb the board to get? Do they not love how the board has fallen? Or is there perfect pick-value match when one of these clubs goes on the clock?
Our CBS Sports NFL writer Cody Benjamin answered that question for all 31 picks in the first round. It's an important article to read, and the answer isn't the same for three of the four clubs with multiple Round 1 selections. Cody does believe the Texans should "stay put" at No. 2 and No. 12 overall. Read the entire breakdown here.
News & Notes 📝
- Cardinals keeps door open on DeAndre Hopkins trade. New head coach Jonathan Gannon recently spoke on his star receiver and didn't exactly shut the door on trading him, saying; "I want to do what's best for him and us, at the same time. When he's ready to come, he'll come and improve his game, too."
- Aaron Jones explains why he took pay cut to stay with Packers. Jones' reduced his salary from $16 to $11 million for 2023 and was quoted saying this about the decision: "This is home for me. Those guys in the locker room, those are my brothers." Even though Jones is still part of the Packers running back room, should the Packers add a running back in the draft?
- Draft-day trade candidates. This article by Cody isn't news. It falls into the "notes" category. It's such a fun article, so I felt compelled to include it today for your perusal. Remember, A.J. Brown was traded during the first round last year. Could Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, or Devin White get moved on draft weekend?
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