We were so close to fully prepared. I had a beautiful lede written about first-time No. 1 receivers for the update. We were going to stop prognosticating and start football. Then more Antonio Brown drama.
For our purposes, what you need to know is: The Raiders have a new No. 1 wide receiver. Brown is in New England, so Tyrell Williams is going to be Derek Carr's top target for Week 1 and beyond. That makes Williams, my favorite preseason sleeper, a borderline top-25 option. Williams would be in line to lead the Raiders in targets, but he won't take them all. Hunter Renfrow and J.J. Nelson will also benefit.
Hopefully, you've got another option if you were planning on starting Brown. Williams is a pretty good one, if you can find him.
Week 1 WR Preview
WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 1 at this time. Here's what it means:
Green will miss at at least the first two weeks of the season, which puts Tyler Boyd into the No. 1 receiver role in Cincinnati. I'm sure you've heard that Boyd was less than impressive in 2018 without Green, but that was mostly with Jeff Driskel throwing the ball. I project Boyd to be a must-start receiver, with only three other wideouts projected for more targets.
| ||
Tate is suspended for the first four games of the season which gives Sterling Shepard a great chance to establish himself as the true No. 1 in New York. I project a great disparity for Shepard depending on format. In PPR, he's a top-24 receiver due to volume. The matchup and implied point total makes him more of a No. 3 option in non-PPR.
|
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
- 49 - That's how many receiving yards Antonio Brown had against New England last year. This is a great first test for JuJu Smith-Schuster and how he handles the role of WR1 in Pittsburgh.
- 10 - The only time Julio Jones has scored double-digit touchdowns, Dirk Koetter was his offensive coordinator. Koetter has said he's focused on getting Jones back in the end zone more regularly.
- 11.3 - Davante Adams' targets per game in 2018. I suspect Matt LaFleur wants to spread the ball around more than that. But will Aaron Rodgers?
- 13.8 - Tyler Lockett's yards per target in 2018, by far the best in the league. With Doug Baldwin gone and David Moore injured, I project Lockett's target share to balloon, which makes him a No. 1 Fantasy receiver in Week 1.
- 50% - Minnesota's pass rate after Kevin Stefanski took over as offensive coordinator last year. It will be difficult for both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to live up to their ADP if that number doesn't go up.
- 4 - Number of games for Amari Cooper in Dallas with fewer than 40 receiving yards. As good as he was in Dallas, he remained maddeningly inconsistent.
- 3 - Receivers for the Rams in my top 20. Jared Goff loves to spread the ball around so there's no reason you shouldn't feel comfortable starting Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp.
- 103.7 - Receiving yards per game for Josh Gordon in the three games he played without Rob Gronkowski.
- 6.6 - Targets per game for Jarvis Landry once Freddie Kitchens took over. It's hard to imagine that number going up much with Odell Beckham in town.
WR Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that Matter
Not only does Hill face one of the best pass defenses in the league, he'll be tailed by Jalen Ramsey. I can't sit Hill and I can't imagine you're considering it, but it could be enough to make you fade him in DFS. Last year against the Jaguars Hill caught four passes for 61 yards and ran it twice for 26. That feels like his floor this week.
| ||
Or maybe this should read Marquise Goodwin? All of the 49ers receivers should be able to take advantage of this matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt last year. That was tied for the worst mark in the league with the Dolphins and Raiders. The Buccaneers also allowed the fourth most Fantasy points per game to receivers.
| ||
The Bills allowed the fourth fewest Fantasy points to opposing receivers last year and this is one of the lowest over/unders on the slate. That's not to say you can't use Anderson as a No. 3 receiver but I prefer Westbrook, Gordon and Shepard.
|
WR Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 1 Adds
All offseason I wrote about how Brown was being underdrafted and now he's underowned. He should be rostered in all leagues 12 teams or deeper and he's a sneaky play in Week 1. The Jets gave up the second most Fantasy points per game to opposing receivers last year and Brown is the unquestioned No. 1 on the Bills. You can add him and start him as a flex in Week 1.
| ||
While it's not a great matchup in Week 1 against the Bills, it's better for Crowder than Anderson. The best receiver in Adam Gase's offense the past three seasons has been the slot guy and that's where we expect Crowder to line up most of the time. I expect him to receive enough volume to be a decent flex in PPR.
|
Stashes
Tate is a worthwhile stash because he'll be back before you have bye week concerns and I expect him to be a solid No. 3 receiver once he returns. If anything happens to Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram or Sterling Shepard, Tate could see his volume shoot up in a hurry.
| |
Both Boykin and Marquise Brown (28%) are excellent stashes. They have immense talent and a fantastic matchup in Week 1 against the Dolphins. Brown was the first-round pick, but Boykin spent far more time practicing and building rapport with Jackson. I can't wait to see how they're used in Week 1, and I expect at least one of them will be a waiver wire darling in Week 2.
| |
Wilson was overlooked in drafts because for much of camp it didn't look as if he'd be ready for the start of the season. Now that that's cleared up he should be added immediately. With Kenny Stills gone, Wilson has an opportunity to slide into the No. 1 role in this offense. Wilson is the team's slot receiver and I'd expect the Dolphins focus their passing attack on that position.
|
WR Preview
DFS Plays
Top Plays
Westbrook was the only wide receiver Nick Foles targeted in the preseason, literally. Westbrook received seven of 10 targets thrown by Foles. In Week 1, he faces a Chiefs defense that allowed the second most passing yards per game (273.4) last year. Westbrook is priced like a No. 3 receiver and I expect he'll produce like a No. 1.
| ||||
The only team to give up more through the air than the Chiefs last year? The Cincinnati Bengals. That's who Lockett will face in Week 1. While there isn't a lot of pass volume to go around in Seattle, Lockett doesn't have a lot of guys to share with. Moore is hurt and Metcalf has not practiced much in the past two weeks.
| ||||
It's a little thin at the top of the receiver rankings on the main slate. DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Davante Adams are all playing in primetime. Evans has a great matchup and just a little easier price point to swallow than Julio Jones if you're trying to play Saquon Barkley and an elite tight end.
| ||||
Contrarian Plays
There's no logical reason to play Hill at this price over Evans or Jones. Well, unless you want a guy who may be under five percent owned that has massive upside regardless of the matchup. Hill's not someone I'll even consider in cash games, but he's definitely on the tournament short list.
| ||||
Everyone will want to play Barkley and I'd expect Evan Engram is one of the higher owned tight ends, but the No. 1 receiver for the Giants will be overlooked. There will be plenty of volume here, but if he gets into the end zone as well then this is a huge win. I like Shepard a lot more on DraftKings.
| ||||
WR Preview
Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | Non-PPR FPTs | PPR FPTs |
3 | 1 | Michael Thomas | 13.73 | 21.04 |
1 | 2 | DeAndre Hopkins | 14.44 | 20.99 |
2 | 3 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 13.82 | 20.93 |
4 | 4 | Julio Jones | 13.56 | 20.11 |
5 | 5 | Mike Evans | 13.23 | 18.49 |
7 | 6 | Tyreek Hill | 12.38 | 17.92 |
10 | 7 | Keenan Allen | 11.76 | 17.77 |
9 | 8 | Adam Thielen | 11.79 | 17.72 |
12 | 9 | Davante Adams | 11.39 | 17.48 |
6 | 10 | Tyler Lockett | 12.39 | 17.30 |
8 | 11 | Odell Beckham | 11.90 | 17.18 |
15 | 12 | Julian Edelman | 11.06 | 16.98 |
19 | 13 | Tyler Boyd | 10.62 | 16.62 |
11 | 14 | Brandin Cooks | 11.50 | 16.44 |
18 | 15 | Dede Westbrook | 10.64 | 16.23 |
14 | 16 | Robert Woods | 11.13 | 16.07 |
13 | 17 | Kenny Golladay | 11.35 | 15.89 |
16 | 18 | Amari Cooper | 10.82 | 15.80 |
21 | 19 | Stefon Diggs | 10.23 | 15.78 |
17 | 20 | Cooper Kupp | 10.82 | 15.68 |
22 | 21 | Chris Godwin | 10.11 | 14.69 |
30 | 22 | Sterling Shepard | 9.16 | 14.54 |
23 | 23 | D.J. Moore | 9.80 | 14.37 |
20 | 24 | Josh Gordon | 10.31 | 14.09 |
