With heavy traffic to navigate in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field on Saturday, we've seen winners from across the Kentucky Derby betting odds win in recent years. Rich Strike won in 2022 as an 80-1 longshot, while Mage paid out at 15-1 in 2023. Justify was the last favorite to win in 2018 when he went off at 3-1. Only five 2024 Kentucky Derby horses are priced at 10-1 or lower, which means there will be plenty of opportunities to spice up your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets with value plays. Just Steel is a son of Triple Crown winner Justify and is 20-1 in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, while Fierceness is the 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite. Sierra Leone (3-1) and Catching Freedom (8-1) follow in the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup.
Post time for the first leg of the Triple Crown is set for 6:57 p.m. ET. With the Kentucky Derby offering arguably the best betting opportunity of any single sporting event of the year, you'll want to see what Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks.
A member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team since 2017, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014 and an $18,000 Pick 5 at Tampa Bay Downs in early April.
In April of last year, he hit a Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park for $641, the exacta in the Florida Derby, a Pick 5 at Keeneland and the exacta in the Lexington Stakes. He smashed the trifecta in the Belmont Stakes for $532.96, and later in June he crushed a Pick 4 at Belmont for $555. Those were just some of his scores from 2023.
For Saturday, he has handicapped the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Weir is fading Fierceness, even though he is the top favorite. Betting favorites against a 20-horse field is already perilous, but running style and Kentucky Derby post draw could clash for this Todd Pletcher-trained colt. Fierceness went straight to the front in his 13.5-length win at the Florida Derby, but he'll need to break quickly coming from the No. 16 post to get onto the pace on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Fierceness will face more closing speed than he's ever seen before with Sierra Leone proving repeatedly that he can eat up ground rapidly in the stretch and pressers like Just a Touch and Forever Young could also complicate matters for the favorite.
Another curveball: Weir is high on the chances of Japanese invader Forever Young, even though he's a 10-1 longshot. The Japanese-bred horse enters the Kentucky Derby 2024 on a five race winning streak, and is one of two horses to enter with a perfect record. Forever Young is trained by Yoshito Yahagi, a legend on the Japanese horse racing scene. He's trained some of Japan's best horses, including 2020 Japanese Triple Crown winner Contrail.
"Forever Young is versatile and might be able to lay closer than some expect in this spot. The estimated figures for his 3-year-old races are right in line with the top 3-year-old figures among the American horses, except for Fierceness. There is no reason to believe a horse coming from Dubai can't win this race, and he may be the best UAE Derby shipper to attempt this. He looks live and will be interesting at double-digit odds," Weir told SportsLine. You can see all of Weir's 2024 Kentucky Derby bets here.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Weir is high on a big double-digit longshot who "could be ready for his best." Weir is including this surprising horse in his 2024 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
So who wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and what double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the horse racing insider who has had multiple five-figure days at the track and just hit an $18,000 payday, and find out.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SCR |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Epic Ride | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
