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We're back to being in a guessing game with the Patriots backfield. And it doesn't feel good.
Dion Lewis is out for the season with a torn ACL, which stinks on many levels. He was great for Fantasy owners this season with 49 carries for 234 yards and two touchdowns and 36 catches for 388 yards and two scores. In standard leagues he was the No. 17 running back, and he was No. 7 in PPR formats. He had either 100 total yards or a touchdown in all five games he was able to finish this season.
Now, Fantasy owners want to know how the Patriots will replace Lewis, and you might have a better chance guessing the winning lottery numbers for this week then getting that answer, even though we only have to choose among two guys in James White and Brandon Bolden. We just might have to see it unfold given Bill Belichick's history.
At least we know LeGarrette Blount is locked into his role on running downs -- when the Patriots want to run it. Blount should benefit the most with Lewis out, and in the two games when Lewis got hurt (Week 6 at Indianapolis with an abdomen injury and Week 9 vs. Washington with his knee) we saw Blount have his two best games in terms of rushing yards. He had 16 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown against the Colts, and he also added an 11-yard touchdown catch. And he had 29 carries for 129 yards and a touchdown against the Redskins.
Those were games where the Patriots wanted to run the ball, so leaning on Blount made sense. As we know about New England this season, running the ball is secondary behind Tom Brady's assault on the NFL following Deflategate.
In the game where Lewis was out in Week 7 against the Jets, Blount had three carries for minus-3 yards. Bolden was a healthy scratch for that game, but White only had five touches with two carries for 4 yards and three catches for 26 yards. On Sunday, when Lewis got hurt against the Redskins, White was a healthy scratch for the game, but Bolden had one carry for 12 yards and three catches for 27 yards and a touchdown.
Most reports out of New England suggest White will get the first chance to replace Lewis, and he's owned in just 2 percent of leagues on CBS Sports. Bolden is owned in 3 percent of leagues, but we expect he will also play a role. He also is the most logical handcuff option for Blount given his bigger frame compared to White.
Blount could also see more work in the passing game, although he has just three catches for 27 yards on the season and has never had more than 15 catches in a season for his career. He should get more touches regardless, and his stock will rise with Lewis out.
In terms of adding White or Bolden, we would add White first in the majority of leagues, and hopefully he directly takes over for Lewis. But in deeper leagues, it might be a good idea to speculate on Bolden also off waivers, especially if you have an open roster spot. We hope to get clarity on New England's backfield in Week 10 against the Giants, but this is a game where Blount can do some heavy lifting, so who knows what will happen. Then again, we also hope to win the lottery this week.
Quarterbacks
Injuries: Ben Roethlisberger (foot) and Teddy Bridgewater (concussion)
Key players on bye: Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers
Priority list (Top 5 to add in this order):
Blake Bortles
NO • QB • #9
Ownership Percentage65 percent
If Bortles is still out there add him for this week and start him with confidence against the Ravens. He might even be your starter for the rest of the season depending on your quarterback situation. In terms of Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, he faces one tough defense for the rest of the season against the Falcons in Week 15, and even that isn't a daunting matchup. His opponent this week, Baltimore, has allowed every opposing quarterback aside from Peyton Manning in Week 1 and Michael Vick in Week 4 to score at least 23 Fantasy points in a standard league. And Bortles has scored at least 20 Fantasy points in five of seven games.
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Kirk Cousins
ATL • QB • #18
Ownership Percentage16 percent
Can you trust a bad quarterback even in a great matchup? We're about to find out, but Cousins is worth trusting this week against New Orleans. The Saints are that bad. They rank dead last in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 29.2 points on average to the position. Every quarterback but Brandon Weeden has scored at least 21 Fantasy points against the Saints, and the numbers are staggering. Six quarterbacks have passed for at least 300 yards, including three in a row, and five have at least three total touchdowns, including three in a row. Cousins only has two games with more than 20 Fantasy points, but he was awesome in his last favorable matchup in Week 7 against Tampa Bay with 35 Fantasy points. A repeat performance against New Orleans at home would not be out of the question.
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Ryan Fitzpatrick
WAS • QB • #14
Ownership Percentage46 percent
Fitzpatrick is playing well of late, and he could be worth starting this week against the Bills at home on Thursday night. He's scored at least 22 Fantasy points in the last three games he's been able to play, and he hasn't thrown an interception since Week 6. The Bills have been tough against opposing quarterbacks this season, but five quarterbacks have scored at least 19 Fantasy points this year. Fitzpatrick also has the chance to help you for the near future with upcoming matchups against Houston, Miami, the Giants and Tennessee following this game against Buffalo.
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Brian Hoyer
LV • QB • #7
Ownership Percentage26 percent
This is not a good matchup for Hoyer against the Bengals in Week 10, and only two quarterbacks have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against Cincinnati. But Hoyer has been a surprise Fantasy quarterback this season, whether starting or not. He's scored at least 21 Fantasy points in five games in a row, and he will likely be chasing points again this week, which should lead to plenty of attempts. Houston is not going to have success running the ball against the Bengals, but Hoyer should be able to make plays with DeAndre Hopkins and Nate Washington, and Cecil Shorts (hamstring) should return this week. He should find a way to 20-plus points again in Week 10.
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Marcus Mariota
WAS • QB
Ownership Percentage39 percent
If you're looking for a stash candidate at quarterback then Mariota is your guy. He has some great matchups coming up at Jacksonville in Week 11, vs. Oakland in Week 12 and vs. Jacksonville in Week 13. But this week you should avoid Mariota, even after he scored 40 Fantasy points at New Orleans in Week 9. The Saints are terrible, but the Panthers are a much tougher matchup this week, even at home. Only two quarterbacks have scored 20 Fantasy points against Carolina, and one was Aaron Rodgers last week. Mariota has played well against weak opponents in Tampa Bay, Indianapolis and New Orleans, but those are the only three games above 20 Fantasy points this year. He should be good when the matchup is right, but this is not a good week to start him as a streaming option.
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Potential drop candidates: Russell Wilson (94 percent) and Ryan Tannehill (84 percent)
Of note:
If Tyrod Taylor (75 percent) is still out there you can add him this week and start him against the Jets. Taylor didn't have to do much against the Dolphins in Week 9 and finished with 17 Fantasy points. The Jets have allowed three quarterbacks in a row to score at least 24 Fantasy points, and Taylor should play well even on the short week.
Joe Flacco (78 percent) is also worth trusting this week against the Jaguars at home. Three quarterbacks in a row have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against Jacksonville and five for the season, and Flacco has scored at least 21 Fantasy points in five of his past seven games, including all three at home this year. We'll find out how he does without Steve Smith (Achilles), but he scored 26 Fantasy points in Week 5 against Cleveland when Smith was out with a back injury. Based on the matchup at home, Flacco could have a chance for a quality game this week.
Tony Romo (73 percent) is one week away from returning to action from his collarbone injury. If you have an open roster spot, add him now because he should be a Top 10 Fantasy quarterback to close the season. He'll be a must-start option in his first game against the Dolphins in Week 11.
Landry Jones (2 percent) isn't a bad streaming option this week against the Browns, and we hope this the only week he starts for the injured Roethlisberger. The Steelers play Cleveland this week and have a bye in Week 11, and we hope Roethlisberger is back in Week 12. For this week, Jones faces a Browns defense that has allowed six quarterbacks to score at least 19 Fantasy points. Jones obviously has great weapons in Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, but this could be a game where Pittsburgh just leans on DeAngelo Williams. Still, in a deeper league if you're stuck, Jones could have the chance for a decent game given the matchup at home.
Running backs
Injuries: Dion Lewis (knee), Eddie Lacy (groin), LeSean McCoy (shoulder) and Latavius Murray (concussion)
Key players on bye: Devonta Freeman, Frank Gore and Danny Woodhead
Priority list (Top 5 to add in this order):
James Starks
GB • RB • #44
Ownership Percentage60 percent
We'll find out if Lacy is able to play in Week 10 after suffering a groin injury in Week 9 at Carolina. Either way, it's time to add Starks now in the majority of leagues because he's playing better than Lacy this season. And if Lacy were to miss this week against the Lions then Starks would be a potential Top 10 running back in the majority of leagues. He has at least 17 Fantasy points in a standard league in two of his past three games. Lacy hasn't scored double digits in points since Week 1.
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Karlos Williams
PIT • RB
Ownership Percentage67 percent
McCoy could miss Week 10 against the Jets with a shoulder injury, especially since the game is Thursday night. Like Starks, it doesn't matter with the injury, add Williams where available. Williams has scored in all five games he's played this season, and he could be a starting Fantasy option even when McCoy is active. If McCoy is out against the Jets, even in a tough matchup, Williams should still be started in the majority of leagues. McCoy already missed one game this season in Week 4 against the Giants, and Williams had 18 carries for 40 yards and three catches for 30 yards and a touchdown.
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Matt Jones
PHI • RB • #38
Ownership Percentage55 percent
I would add White ahead of Jones if you don't need a running back for this week, but Jones could be a starting option in the majority of leagues in Week 10 against the Saints, even with his fumble last week against the Patriots. New Orleans has allowed a running back to score or gain 100 total yards in five of the past six weeks, including Antonio Andrews last week. And Jones has more touches than Alfred Morris in the past three games when both were active. Jones hasn't done much this season with only double digits in Fantasy points in Week 2, but this could be a week where he helps owners in the majority of leagues.
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Brandon Bolden
LV • RB • #34
Ownership Percentage3 percent
As we explained above, it almost makes sense to group these two together. White should be added first in the majority of leagues, and you can speculate on him as the No. 3 running back to add this week or even No. 1 depending on the size of your league. And Bolden is also worth adding in deeper leagues given the uncertainty of who will replace Lewis. We expect to see a committee with Blount, but White and Bolden are about to see a huge spike in ownership now with Lewis out.
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Joique Bell
DET • RB • #44
Ownership Percentage49 percent
Prior to Detroit's bye in Week 9, Bell had his best game of the season with seven carries for 56 yards against the Chiefs. That coincided with new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter's first game, so maybe it's something to look at with the Lions backfield. We'd love to see Ameer Abdullah get more of an opportunity, but Detroit might lean on Bell coming off the bye. And last year, Bell closed the season with double digits in Fantasy points in five of his final seven games, and he could be over the nagging injuries that plagued him earlier this season.
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Potential drop candidates: Rashad Jennings (90 percent), Melvin Gordon (85 percent), Carlos Hyde (84 percent), C.J. Spiller (82 percent) and Andre Ellington (75 percent)
Of note:
Antonio Andrews (74 percent) doesn't have a great matchup this week against the Panthers, but he should be added in all leagues where available. The Titans, rightfully so, appear committed to him as the starter, and he's had consecutive games with at least 19 touches. He played well in Week 9 at New Orleans with 19 carries for 88 yards and one catch for 23 yards, and hopefully he'll continue to produce with a heavy workload.
If you haven't done so already, please start handcuffing your starters where available. For example, every Adrian Peterson owner should have Jerick McKinnon (13 percent), and every Freeman owner should have Tevin Coleman (48 percent). Jay Ajayi (4 percent) is also now your new handcuff to Lamar Miller in Miami.
Carlos Hyde (foot) could return in Week 11 after San Francisco's bye in Week 10, but if he's out then Shaun Draughn (5 percent) will be the running back to own for the 49ers. He got the most work against Atlanta in Week 9 with 16 carries for 58 yards and four catches for 38 yards. You won't want to start Draughn in Week 11 at Seattle, but he would be a starting running back for owners in deeper leagues. It's safe to drop Kendall Gaskins (35 percent) if you picked him up.
Wide receivers
Injuries: Allen Hurns (foot) and Malcom Floyd (shoulder)
Key players on bye: Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Steve Johnson
Priority list (Top 5 to add in this order):
Davante Adams
LV • WR • #17
Ownership Percentage66 percent
When Jordy Nelson (torn ACL) went down, I thought Adams would be the No. 2 receiver for the Packers behind Randall Cobb. That didn't happen because Adams hurt his ankle in Week 2, and Jones took off as a touchdown machine. But we got a glimpse of what could be ahead in Week 9 against Carolina with Adams finishing second in targets behind Cobb with 11 targets, and he had seven catches for 93 yards. Jones, by comparison, had two catches for 57 yards on six targets. I like all the Packers receivers in Week 10 against the Lions, but I have them ranked Cobb, Adams and Jones. Adams could be a standout Fantasy receiver to close the season.
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Kamar Aiken
PHI • WR • #81
Ownership Percentage36 percent
Aiken should be the No. 1 receiver for the Ravens now that Smith is out, and he has the chance to be a borderline starter in the majority of leagues, especially in PPR. He had four catches for 78 yards on nine targets when Smith was out in Week 5, and he had six catches for 62 yards on six targets in the game Smith left in Week 8 against San Diego. Chris Givens (2 percent) is also worth a look in deeper leagues, and he could be the deep threat Flacco relies on since he likes to push the ball down the field.
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Dorial Green-Beckham
PHI • WR • #18
Ownership Percentage18 percent
In the first game without Kendall Wright (knee), Green-Beckham led the Titans receivers in targets with 10 against the Saints. He finished with five catches for 77 yards, and he is a great stash candidate for the stretch run. I wouldn't recommend using him in Week 11 against the Panthers because he'll likely be shadowed by Josh Norman, but he could end up as a No. 3 receiver if he continues to see a hefty amount of targets. For this week, I like Harry Douglas (9 percent) as the best Titans receiver against the Panthers, and he had five catches for 73 yards against the Saints on five targets. Justin Hunter (4 percent) is not worth starting against Carolina, and he had three catches for 17 yards and a touchdown on four targets against New Orleans.
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Robert Woods
HOU • WR • #2
Ownership Percentage38 percent
Woods is a sneaky sleeper this week, but he could pay off given what No. 2 receivers have done against the Jets this season. In the past three games, Danny Amendola, Michael Crabtree and Allen Hurns have each had at least five catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. Sammy Watkins will likely be shadowed by Darrelle Revis, which is a tough matchup for him. But as teams stay away from Revis they tend to target Antonio Cromartie, who is dealing with a thigh bruise. If the recent trends hold, Woods could end up helping a lot of Fantasy owners this week.
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Devin Funchess
DET • WR • #13
Ownership Percentage9 percent
I wouldn't get too excited about Funchess after he scored 13 Fantasy points in Week 9 against Green Bay because it's just his first touchdown of the season, and he only had three catches for 71 yards on four targets. But this receiving corps could use a No. 1 target, and Ted Ginn, Jericho Cotchery and Corey Brown don't have Funchess' upside. In deeper leagues he's absolutely worth stashing because if the targets start to increase we could see a definite rise in production.
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Potential drop candidates: Golden Tate (80 percent), Travis Benjamin (74 percent), Andre Johnson (73 percent), Anquan Boldin (71 percent) and Mike Wallace (71 percent)
Of note:
Two receivers I like this week who could be helpful for Fantasy owners are Marvin Jones (59 percent) and Rueben Randle (52 percent). Both are inconsistent, but Jones has a favorable matchup against the Texans on Monday night, and Randle could see a hefty amount of targets with the Giants likely chasing points against the Patriots. They are both better off as No. 3 receivers, but based on the matchup they are good streaming options in Week 10.
Cole Beasley (6 percent) just had his best game of the season with nine catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets against the Eagles for 23 Fantasy points. But don't discount him playing a role for the Cowboys now that Dez Bryant is back, especially when Romo is healthy. Beasley needs a strong outside receiver to help him get favorable matchups in the slot, and the Cowboys could make him relevant for PPR leagues. He's someone to keep an eye on in deeper formats.
Bryan Walters (0 percent) is someone to look at in deeper leagues as well, and he's done a nice job of late as the No. 3 receiver for the Jaguars behind Allen Robinson and Hurns. Walters has at least eight Fantasy points in two of his past three games, and he's done well when the targets have been at least seven. He's not someone you're going to start most weeks, but if Bortles continues to lean on him then he could be a valuable Fantasy option in deeper formats.
Tight ends
Injuries: No one of significance from Week 9
Key players on bye: Antonio Gates, Jacob Tamme and Coby Fleener
Priority list (Top 5 to add in this order):
Eric Ebron
PIT • TE • #85
Ownership Percentage38 percent
There aren't a lot of great streaming tight ends this week with Gates the only must-start option on a bye or hurt, but Ebron has played well this season when healthy. He has three games this season with double digits in Fantasy points of the six he's played, and he does have a favorable matchup this week against the Packers. In the past three games, tight ends have abused Green Bay with Ladarius Green, Gates and Greg Olsen all scoring at least nine Fantasy points in a standard league. Ebron has the chance to be a Top 10 tight end in Week 10.
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Austin Seferian-Jenkins
NE • TE • #88
Ownership Percentage47 percent
If Seferian-Jenkins ever plays he could become a Top 10 Fantasy tight end, and he appears on the verge of returning from the shoulder injury he sustained in Week 2. We'll continue to monitor his practice reports this week, but he could be worth a speculative add in all leagues. He would be a Top 12 tight end option in Week 10 against Dallas at home, especially if Vincent Jackson (knee) remains out.
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Richard Rodgers
LAC • TE • #82
Ownership Percentage23 percent
Rodgers has a chance to help Fantasy owners this week with the matchup against the Lions. Detroit has allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including one in three of the past four games. Rodgers scored twice in Week 9 at Carolina with five catches for 19 yards.
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Kyle Rudolph
TB • TE • #8
Ownership Percentage47 percent
Rudolph is touchdown or bust, and he's yet to score double digits in Fantasy points this season. But he has scored twice in the past four games, and the Raiders allow the most Fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, with the most touchdowns allowed at nine. You're counting on Rudolph to score if you buy into starting him this week, and it could happen against the Raiders.
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Crockett Gillmore
BAL • TE • #80
Ownership Percentage19 percent
Gillmore should see a boost in targets with Smith out, and he scored in his last game against the Chargers in Week 8. He hasn't scored double digits in Fantasy points since Week 2, and Jacksonville has only allowed two touchdowns to tight ends for the season. Still, the opportunity for increased production with Smith out could help Gillmore down the stretch.
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Potential drop candidates: Jason Witten (92 percent), Julius Thomas (87 percent) and Heath Miller (70 percent)
Of note:
Delanie Walker (74 percent) was the best receiving option for the Titans with Wright out, and he was great against the Saints with seven catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns. One of the touchdowns was a fluke, but he's been great in PPR leagues with at least six catches in four games in a row and two games with at least 95 yards. He has a tough matchup against the Panthers in Week 10, but three tight ends have scored double digits in Fantasy points in three of the past four games. Walker remains a Top 10 tight end in Week 10.
The Broncos traded for Vernon Davis (71 percent) prior to Sunday's game at the Colts, but it was Owen Daniels (22 percent) who led the way at tight end for Denver. Daniels had six catches for 102 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, and Davis was held without a catch on one target. Davis will eventually take on a bigger role, but it could be several weeks before he produces for the Broncos and Fantasy owners. And the more work Davis starts to get the worse it will be for Daniels. Don't worry about Davis or Daniels in Week 10 against Kansas City, which is a tough matchup.
DST streamers
Ravens (vs. JAC): 18 percent
Chiefs (at DEN): 60 percent
Steelers (vs. CLE): 58 percent
K streamers
Connor Barth (vs. DAL): 23 percent
Caleb Sturgis (vs. MIA): 30 percent
Greg Zuerlein (vs. CHI): 25 percent
