Fantasy Football Week 16 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: Running backs

Chris Carson was nearly Jamey Eisenberg's Start of the Week, so you know he needs to be in your lineup for Week 16. See who else you need to start right here.

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Editor's note: Welcome to Week 16! We're handling Jamey Eisenberg's Start 'Em & Sit 'Em column a bit differently this season. You're still getting the same in-depth analysis as always, we're just presenting a bit differently, in an effort to get it out to you earlier in the day. This column takes a long time to write, and in the past, we've usually gotten it out to you in the evening. This year, we're going to publish it position-by-position, to get it into your hands quicker. Here's Jamey's take on running backs for this week.

Don't worry: If you want the classic Start 'Em & Sit 'Em, we'll still be publishing that at the end of the day with every position included. For now, here's running back.

Projections are provided by SportsLine.com. Projected points are for PPR leagues.

Running backs

Start 'Em

13.0 projected points	Chris Carson Seattle Seahawks RB
I love the set-up for Carson in Week 16 against the Chiefs (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET, available on fuboTV) and nearly made him the Start of the Week for the second time this season. When he had that designation in Week 13, he was the No. 21 running back in PPR, but I have much higher expectations this week. He comes into this matchup with at least 12 PPR points in five games in a row, including 25 points in Week 15 at San Francisco. He had 22 carries for 119 yards and a touchdown, as well as six catches for 29 yards on six targets against the 49ers, and it helped that Rashaad Penny (knee) was out. We'll see if Penny returns this week, and Mike Davis will still get touches in a reserve role. But this is now consecutive games for Carson with at least 22 total touches, and the Chiefs are No. 3 in Fantasy points allowed to running backs on the season. Carson has top-five upside in Week 16.
14.3 projected points	Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans RB
While his performance in Week 14 might be considered a fluke, you can't ignore his workload – or production – now. He had 17 carries for 238 yards and four touchdowns against the Jaguars in Week 14, and he followed it up with 33 carries for 170 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 15. For those of you counting at home, that's 50 carries for 408 yards (8.2 yards per carry) and six touchdowns over the past two games. Wow. He also has scored a touchdown in six of his past eight games, and he should have success against Washington, which has allowed four running backs to either score or gain 100 total yards in the past five games.
12.1 projected points	Marlon Mack Indianapolis Colts RB
Mack had the biggest surprise performance for me in Week 15 against Dallas with 27 carries for 139 yards and two touchdowns, as well as one catch for 10 yards on one target. The return of center Ryan Kelly helped Mack set a career high in rushing, which sets up well for Week 16 against the Giants. It's well documented by now that the Giants have allowed a running back to score in every game but one, which was Washington in Week 14. And since trading defensive tackle Damon Harrison prior to Week 8, six running backs have scored at least 14 PPR points against the Giants in the past seven games.
12.1 projected points	Tevin Coleman Atlanta Falcons RB
Coleman should get a bump in touches in Week 16 against the Panthers with Ito Smith (knee) out for the season. In two games prior to Week 15 against Arizona, Smith was getting more work than Coleman, but Coleman exploded against the Cardinals after Smith was injured. He had 11 carries for 145 yards and a touchdown, and he should have the chance to stay hot at Carolina. The Panthers have allowed a running back to score in six games in a row, and Coleman was a star against Carolina in Week 2 with 16 carries for 107 yards, as well as four catches for 18 yards on four targets. He's also scored a touchdown in each of his past two trips to Carolina over the past two seasons.
9.4 projected points	Sony Michel New England Patriots RB
Michel is due for a big game after struggling with his Fantasy production in the past three weeks. He's scored a combined 17 PPR points in his past three outings against Minnesota, Miami and Pittsburgh despite getting 40 carries for 179 yards (4.5 yards per carry) over that span. He lost three short-area touchdowns to fullback James Develin in those three games, as well as additional carries to Rex Burkhead -- James White will continue to get work in his usual role -- but Michel should rebound against the Bills. He's averaging 15.8 PPR points in four home games this season, with four touchdowns in New England. And Buffalo has allowed a running back to score in eight games in a row coming into Week 16, with 12 total touchdowns allowed to the position over that span.

Sleepers

• Damien Williams (at SEA): The reason Williams is listed here instead of as a must-start option is due to the uncertainty of Spencer Ware (hamstring) playing in Week 16. If Ware is out again then start Williams in all leagues after his performance in Week 15 against the Chargers when he had 10 carries for 49 yards and two touchdowns, along with six catches for 74 yards on six targets. He also had two touchdowns in Week 14 against Baltimore with Ware healthy for that outing. And Seattle has allowed a running back to score at least 14 PPR points in eight games in a row.
• Elijah McGuire (vs. GB): McGuire has stepped up in the past two weeks with Isaiah Crowell (toe) hurt. He's scored in consecutive games since Crowell first got hurt in Week 14 at Buffalo, and he has 35 carries for 102 yards and two touchdowns, as well as six catches for 52 yards on eight targets over that span. Trenton Cannon will get some work in tandem with McGuire, but it's clear that McGuire will be the featured running back in Week 16 against the Packers. And Green Bay has allowed a running back to score or gain at least 100 total yards in seven of the past eight games.
• Jamaal Williams (at NYJ): Aaron Jones (knee) is out for the season, so we should see Williams once again in a featured role for the Packers. Williams played well in Week 15 at Chicago after Jones got hurt with 12 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown, as well as four catches for 42 yards on five targets. Williams started the first two games of the season with Jones suspended and struggled, scoring a combined 13 PPR points against Chicago and Minnesota. But this is a much easier matchup against the Jets, who have allowed four touchdowns to running backs in their past five games.
• Kalen Ballage (vs. JAC): With Frank Gore (foot) out, the Dolphins appear ready to give Ballage a big role, ahead of Kenyan Drake. It's a little odd that Drake isn't expected to get more touches, but Ballage took over for Gore in Week 15 at Minnesota and played well. He had 12 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown, as well as one catch for minus-2 yards. I'm still expecting Drake to get a slight bump in his workload, but he's had nine total touches or less in three games in a row coming into Week 16. Gore had at least 13 total touches in five of his past six games prior to Week 15, and that's the workload Ballage could get. It's a tough matchup against Jacksonville, but Ballage is worth using as a flex option in Week 16.
• Mike Davis (vs. KC): As much as I like Carson as a must-start option this week, I would also use Davis as a flex, especially in PPR. In Week 15 against the 49ers, with Penny out, Davis had five carries for 21 yards, as well as eight catches for 63 yards on eight targets. The Seahawks are likely going to be in a high-scoring affair with the Chiefs, and Davis will be vital in the passing game. Kansas City is tied for fifth in the NFL in receptions allowed to running backs with 88 for the season.

Sit 'Em

8.4 projected points	Adrian Peterson Washington Redskins RB
I'm still not trusting Peterson in Week 16 given his offensive line woes and quarterback situation with Josh Johnson starting. Washington is too challenged offensively, and Tennessee just shut down Saquon Barkley in Week 15 with his worst game of the season at nine PPR points on 56 total yards. In Peterson's past four games, he has one outing with more than nine PPR points, and it was because of a 90-yard touchdown run in Week 13 at Philadelphia. Yes, he can always do something like that again, but he's battling a shoulder injury and likely tired legs at his age (33) this late in the season. Tennessee also hasn't allowed a running back to score in three games in a row.
8.7 projected points	Doug Martin Oakland Raiders RB
Martin was a dud in Week 15 at Cincinnati with nine carries for 39 yards and no catches. It snapped a three-game scoring streak for Martin, but he's now gone two games in a row without any catches. This matchup won't be easy against the Broncos, even at home, and Denver hasn't allowed a running back to score on the ground since Week 6, with only one receiving touchdown allowed to Kareem Hunt in Week 8 over that span. Jalen Richard will continue to take touches away from Martin, especially in the passing game, and he's just a flex option at best in Week 16.
6.4 projected points	Peyton Barber Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB
Barber is finishing the season strong with a touchdown in four of his past five games, and he's scored at least 13 PPR points in three games over that span. But he's still limited in the passing game with just three catches for 6 yards on five targets in his past three outings, and I expect the Cowboys run defense to be much better at home in Week 16 after getting embarrassed in Week 15 at Indianapolis. For the season, Dallas is in the top 10 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to running backs, so Barber should have minimal production this week, especially if he fails to score.
7.8 projected points	Josh Adams Philadelphia Eagles RB
Adams fought through a back injury in Week 15 at the Rams and managed to score a touchdown, but he finished with just 15 carries for 28 yards and no catches for the fourth game in a row. He should be fine for Week 16 against Houston, but the Eagles will likely continue to use Darren Sproles, as well as Wendell Smallwood, which hurts Adams. And his lack of work in the passing game hurts his overall production, especially when he fails to score, and he has a combined 19 PPR points in his past three outings. The Texans have allowed a running back to score in three games in a row, but it's tough to trust Adams as a Fantasy starter if you're depending on a touchdown to boost his Fantasy production.
13.7 projected points	Matt Breida San Francisco 49ers RB
Breida is expected to play in Week 16 against the Bears despite dealing with an ankle injury (again). He played well in Week 15 against Seattle with 17 carries for 50 yards, as well as five catches for 46 yards on five targets, but he's clearly not 100 percent. And this is a tough matchup against the Bears, who are in the top five in fewest Fantasy points allowed to running backs for the season. Only three running backs have scored rushing touchdowns against Chicago this year, and Breida will also share touches with Jeff Wilson. Breida is just a flex option in most leagues against the Bears this week.

Bust Alert

Fournette is dealing with a foot injury again, which is something to monitor heading into Sunday. But if he plays as expected, it's hard to trust him, even with a great matchup against the Dolphins. The offensive line in Jacksonville is a disaster due to injuries, and Cody Kessler isn't helping the offense at quarterback. In his past two games against Tennessee and Washington, Fournette has scored a combined 13 PPR points. He lost carries to David Williams in Week 15 against Washington, possibly because of his foot, but this isn't the week to trust Fournette, even against the Dolphins. The Jaguars are limping to the finish line on the season, and Fournette could leave you with minimal production in a key spot.

So who should you sit and start? And what shocking running back could win you Week 16? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking RB finishes in the top 15 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.