Mock drafts allow us to project out how the dominos will fall on draft night. That's an exercise that NBA front offices do themselves. It's a requisite in fact in order to inform their decisions about how to weigh their picks and contemplate any transactions.
Last week's mock draft began with an underlying assumption – that Alex Sarr and Donovan Clingan would be the top two picks in the draft. This week, we'll play out the other most likely scenario – that it's Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher that are taken with the first two picks in the draft, regardless of who goes first, with the ripple effects impacting almost everyone selecting thereafter.
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One thing this mock doesn't account for is the potential for a lot of trades, with almost everyone in the lottery reportedly engaged in some sort of conversations.
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
There's some growing speculation that the Hawks could be trending away from Sarr with Risacher, Clingan and Sheppard being among the players they are reportedly interested in. A trade down would be ideal, but that isn't entirely their call. Risacher recently worked out for Atlanta and San Antonio and so a swap isn't out of the realm of possibility. In this scenario though, we're planning as if Atlanta is taking Risacher straight-up to add some wing size and floor-spacing.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
As I said last week, I don't expect Sarr will get out of the top two. He's probably the only player in the draft that we can say that with some confidence at this point, even if he is losing momentum in Atlanta. The fluid and mobile 7-footer has a ton of defensive tools, as well as long-term offensive potential as he continues to get stronger and develop his face-up skill.
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From
Brooklyn Nets
Round 1- Pick 3
Kentucky
• 6'2"
/ 182 lbs
The Rockets have been said to like Sheppard and it's not hard to understand why. He could provide an understudy for Fred VanVleet and be penciled in to take over for him a couple of years down the road, while giving Jalen Green a backcourt partner. Houston is flush with young wings and Clingan will reportedly not work out for them, so unless they deal the pick, Sheppard would seem to fit.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Connecticut
• 6'6"
/ 210 lbs
Risacher, Sheppard and Castle are the players that San Antonio is believed to be most interested in if they stay at No. 4. In this scenario, the first two are off the board leaving Castle as the pick. He's a defensive standout, versatile enough to play three different positions and has a great combination of perimeter size, strength and on/off ball versatility.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
As we said last week, this may be groupthink in the draft community at this point, but Buzelis just makes too much sense on a Detroit team that could really utilize a 4-man with multi-dimensional offensive tools and even some upside as a defensive playmaking if his sense of urgency develops on that end. Clingan is the sleeper here, though.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Tennessee
• 6'5"
/ 212 lbs
The intel out of Charlotte is that they would like either a 2 or 4 in this draft to add to the young core of Brandon Miller, LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams. Knecht is the best available at either of those positions and also one of the more NBA-ready perimeter scorers in the draft. Personally though, I'd give Holland a long look here.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Connecticut
• 7'2"
/ 282 lbs
Clingan is in the mix at both No. 1 and No. 2, but if he gets past Washington, there's the potential for a fall since Houston, San Antonio, Detroit and Charlotte all have young and talented centers already on their roster. In Portland, Clingan could give the team a defensive anchor and long-term solution up front.
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From
Toronto Raptors
Round 1 - Pick 8
I mocked Salaun here last week too, but I liked the fit better after I had Sheppard slotted to San Antonio at No. 4. If they end up with Castle and Salaun, it means they've done nothing to improve the spacing around Wemby. Nevertheless, given Salaun's physical gifts and motor, the Spurs could make him the pick here regardless.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
The Grizzlies love Clingan are trying to move up to get him. If they can't move up, they'll explore moving down, with Yves Missi, Zach Edey and Kel'el Ware all being reported possibilities. If they stay here, Holland makes sense. While there's rumors he's dropping, I can't bet against his wing size, athleticism, competitiveness, defensive and improving offense.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Colorado
• 6'7"
/ 178 lbs
Williams is a high-risk high-reward type prospect and so it may take an executive with a high risk tolerance and plenty of job security to make this pick. Danny Ainge clearly checks both of those boxes if Williams hits, this could go down as a steal.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Devin Carter
PG
Providence
• 6'2"
/ 193 lbs
Carter, who is in my personal top ten, is one of the most naturally competitive and athletic prospects in the draft. He's one of the more NBA-ready perimeter defenders in the class and if the shot holds up, he's going to be a role player extraordinaire, at minimum, for a long time.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 12
If the ACL injury keeps him from playing next year, this is going to take both an executive and franchise that can afford to wait. San Antonio is a possibility at No. 8, but if the Spurs don't pull the trigger, OKC remains a logical destination. He's a true point guard with terrific positional size, a high acumen for the game and the ability to get consistent paint touches.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Kentucky
• 6'1"
/ 164 lbs
Dillingham could certainly be off the board at this point, but if he's available, he makes sense for Sacramento. Malik Monk is a free agent and finding a potential replacement in the draft could be a priority. Carter could be an option if he's available, as too could Jared McCain.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Jared McCain
PG
Duke
• 6'2"
/ 203 lbs
If Clingan is the pick at No. 7, the Blazers will likely look to solidify their perimeter depth and rotation here. A little more size would be ideal, but McCain's intangibles, shooting and increasing on/off ball versatility would be very appealing alongside Scoot Henderson. He's also an insurance policy if the Blazers move off Anfernee Simons or Shaedon Sharpe.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Pittsburgh
• 6'5"
/ 190 lbs
There's a lot of mixed intel on Carrington right now. In one sense, he's a prospect NBA teams are talking about as a riser behind the scenes. Conversely, he wasn't in the first round of green room invitations. For the Heat, he gives them a high-upside big guard who improved by leaps and bounds last season at Pittsburgh.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Duke
• 6'11"
/ 230 lbs
I still think Isaiah Collier is a real possibility here, but Filipowski would make a lot of sense as someone who could both play next to Embiid and also back him up with a rare combination of size and ball skills. The added mobility he's shown this season on the defensive end only helps.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Colorado
• 6'8"
/ 217 lbs
Da Silva is arguably the best plug-and-play option on the board and with LeBron likely to opt out only to resign, that means the Lakers appear trapped in this purgatory of trying to compete, even when they don't seem to have the assets to do it over the course of a long NBA season.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Indiana
• 7'0"
/ 230 lbs
There's been a lot of Ware buzz as of late and while he's deemed a high risk/high reward prospect because of his wide range of outcomes, a floor-spacing five-man could be a nice longterm fit alongside the two-headed forward monster of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
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From
Indiana Pacers
Round 1 - Pick 19
USC
• 6'3"
/ 205 lbs
The Raptors would love to get back to some of the big athletes that used to fill the middle of their lineup and they could also look for Gary Trent Jr.'s replacement as he heads into free agency. Collier is neither, but he's a true point guard who could fit nicely with Immanuel Quickley and Gradey Dick given his pace and physicality.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Baylor
• 6'11"
/ 229 lbs
Changes may be coming to the Cavs this summer and if they split up the twin towers of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, they could use more depth up front. Missi is an athletic 5-man who runs the floor, protects the rim and provides a lob threat.
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From
Milwaukee Bucks
Round 1 - Pick 21
Purdue
• 7'4"
/ 299 lbs
The Pelicans need help at the 5 and Edey is the best big man on the board, not to mention college basketball's best player for the last two years. He's a true low post anchor and if those flashes of shooting touch he showed at the combine prove to be real, the fit with Zion Williamson becomes easier.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Tyler Kolek
PG
Marquette
• 6'1"
/ 197 lbs
Kolek appears to be generating some real traction recently. The Suns, while certainly still a candidate to move the pick, are a real possibility to grab one of college basketball's best point guards who could compete for rotation minutes right away on a club that desperately needs to build their supporting cast.
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From
New Orleans Pelicans
Round 1 - Pick 23
Dayton
• 6'9"
/ 236 lbs
Holmes went back to Dayton this year and improved his stock by showing floor spacing potential for the first time. Given his undeniable athleticism, if Milwaukee believes the shooting is real, he becomes an interesting addition to complement Giannis in the years to come.
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From
Dallas Mavericks
Round 1 - Pick 24
Baylor
• 6'4"
/ 198 lbs
Walter could certainly be off the board by this point, but if he's available, he makes a ton of sense for the Knicks. He has the physical tools to defend the way Tom Thibodeau wants, he's a projectable shooter he helps improve their depth in the middle of the lineup.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Miami (Fla.)
• 6'8"
/ 205 lbs
A backup big would make a lot of sense given Isaiah Hartenstein's free agency, but with Ware, Missi, Edey and Holmes off the board (or if the Knicks are confident they can resign Hartenstein), George gives them a developmental late-blooming big wing that they can groom in Westchester.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 26
This is an upside swing to be sure, but the Wizards will have young assets to develop at every position other than lead guard. Johnson, a former five-star recruit, has a growing amount of intrigue, despite an up-and-down season in the NBL after opting out of his commitment to Texas
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Kansas
• 6'8"
/ 189 lbs
The Timberwolves need shooting and floor-spacing around Anthony Edwards for the next decade and Furphy will provide that. He's made huge strides over the last 18 months and has quality wing-size to complement his shooting and linear progression.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Creighton
• 6'6"
/ 202 lbs
Scheierman is one of the best plug-and-play options in the draft and could certainly be off the board by this selection. If not though, he may be someone that both Calvin Booth and Mike Malone can agree upon given his skill, basketball IQ and underrated physical tools.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Cam Christie
SG
Minnesota
• 6'5"
/ 190 lbs
I could see the Jazz taking a shot on Johnson if he were here, but if not it wouldn't be a surprise to see Ainge take a swing on another high upside young guard like Christie, who has the shooting to grow into a nice running mate for Keyonte George in the backcourt.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Shooting is a requisite for the newly crowned NBA champs and with Al Horford now 38 years old and Kristaps Porzingis' durability always in question, Smith gives them another shooting big, with underrated athleticism, to develop in Joe Mazzulla's system.
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