The Cardinals finished 8-8 a year ago and they managed that without a quarterback. Yes, Carson Palmer started seven games, but at 38, he wasn't the player he once was. The other nine starts were split between Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton. And with a defense that ranked fourth in the league, according to Football Outsiders' metrics -- and third in 2016 -- finding a replacement-level-or-better quarterback could be the difference between another season of mediocrity and the playoffs.
Or so the theory went.
The good news is that, through the first month of the season, the defense ranks 11th, so when in the list of things plaguing this team, they rank pretty low.
The Cardinals signed 30-year-old Sam Bradford to a one-year, $20 million deal in the offseason and then drafted Josh Rosen with the 10th overall pick. Not surprisingly, Bradford was named the starter, partly because he's played well in recent stops in Philly and Minnesota, and partly because there seemed to be no reason to rush an inexperienced Rosen onto the field.
The reality, however, was much different; in three starts, Bradford completed just 62.5 percent of his throws and managed just two touchdowns against four interceptions and two lost fumbles. He averaged 5.0 yards per attempt, and in terms of value per play and total value, he ranked 32nd in the league ahead of Tyrod Taylor and Josh Allen.
Ouch.
So in Week 3 against the Bears, with two minutes left and the game on the line, first-year coach Steve Wilks benched Bradford for Rosen. Not exactly ideal circumstances to make your rookie debut; Rosen was 4 of 7 for 36 yards and an interception, but he was named the starter for Week 4 and showed glimpses of why the Cardinals have hope. Yes, he finished 15 of 27 for 180 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers, but that doesn't tell the whole story. He was pressured on 14 of 30 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus, and had to overcome several dropped passes that belied his accuracy.
"I thought he played well. I thought he gave us every opportunity for us to win that football game," Wilks, now 0-4, said Monday. "Very poised, a great leader, put the ball where it needed to be. ... I loved the way he just commanded the offense and the way we went down the field sometimes."
Now the question becomes whether Rosen, who looks to be the answer at quarterback, can overcome all the other issues on offense to make Arizona competitive. Their best chance might come Sunday when the Cards travel to San Francisco to face the Jimmy Garoppolo-less 49ers, who are 1-3 on the season.
(Note: In the table below, the teams are sorted from "most likely to have the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft" to "least likely" using two different methods. The "Current record weighted by 2017 record" column does what the name suggests: Teams are first sorted by their '18 records, then by their '17 records. The other column is sorted by the "SportsLine's preseason projected draft order." Finally, here's our most recent 2019 NFL mock draft if you'd like to see who we have each team taking.)
Pick | Current record weighted by 2017 record | SportsLine preseason projected draft order |
1 | Arizona (0-4) | |
2 | New York Giants (0-4) | |
3 | Houston (0-4) | |
4 | Indianapolis (1-3) | |
5 | New York Jets (1-3) | |
6 | Oakland (1-3) | |
7 | San Francisco (1-3) | |
8 | Detroit (1-3) | |
9 | Buffalo (1-3) | |
10 | Atlanta (1-3) | Giants |
11 | Cleveland (1-2-1) | |
12 | Pittsburgh (1-2-1) | |
13 | Minnesota (1-2-1) | |
14 | Tampa Bay (2-2) | |
15 | Denver (2-2) | |
16 | Seattle (2-2) | |
17 | Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) | |
18 | Dallas (2-2) | |
19 | New England (2-2) | |
20 | Philadelphia (2-2) | |
21 | Green Bay (2-1-1) | |
22 | Washington (2-1) | |
23 | Carolina (2-1) | |
24 | Chicago (to Oakland) (3-1)* | Chargers |
25 | Miami (3-1) | |
26 | Cincinnati (3-1) | |
27 | Tennessee (3-1) | |
28 | Baltimore (3-1) | |
29 | Jacksonville (3-1) | |
30 | New Orleans (to Green Bay) (3-1)** | |
31 | Kansas City (4-0) | |
32 | Los Angeles Rams (4-0) |
* Chicago sent its 2019 first-round pick to Oakland as part of the Khalil Mack trade.
** New Orleans sent its 2019 first-round pick to Green Bay to draft Marcus Davenport in 2018.
Arizona at San Francisco
Line: 49ers -4.5
C.J. Beathard looked pretty good last week, replacing Jimmy Garoppolo, whose season is over after suffering a torn ACL. Josh Rosen looked pretty good too, in the first start of his NFL career. Yes, the Cards lost again, but they scored a season-high 17 points, found a way to finally get David Johnson involved, and Rosen's modest numbers (15 of 27 for 180 yards, a touchdown and no turnovers) belies an impressive effort by a rookie under less-than-ideal circumstances. We don't know if the Cards are going to win their first game of the season on Sunday, but they're getting closer.
Tennessee at Buffalo
Line: Titans -3.5
The Titans are the best team no one's talking about. Mike Vrabel has gotten off to a good start in his first month as coach and Marcus Mariota had one of the best games of his career in Sunday's overtime win over the Eagles. Also awesome: rookie second-rounder Harold Landry, who was inexplicably overlooked as a first-round talent, leaving many teams now regretting the decision to pass him over. The Bills' Super Bowl unexpectedly came two weeks ago when they went into Minnesota and whipped the Vikings. It has otherwise been a disaster in Buffalo, where only the Cardinals have been outscored more (minus-57 to minus-56). When you're losing by an average of two touchdowns, things are so far off the rails you can no longer see the tracks.
Denver at N.Y. Jets
Line: Jets -1
Remember when the Jets smoked the Lions in the season opener? That seems like four years ago. They scored 48 points in Detroit. In the three games since -- all losses -- they've managed a combined 41. In those three losses, rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is completing less than 55 percent of his throws, and has one touchdown against four picks. The Broncos looked good against the Chiefs on Monday, but not good enough to overcome Patrick Mahomes. Lucky for them, they're not facing Mahomes on Sunday.
Green Bay at Detroit
Line: Packers -1.5
Is there a bigger enigma than the Lions? They were blown out by the Jets, never really had a chance to beat the 49ers, then manhandled the Patriots before falling to the Cowboys last week. At 1-3, they're in last place in the division and given how the perennial basement-dwelling Bears are now playing, we don't see the Lions changing their station anytime soon. The good news is that Detroit beat Green Bay twice last season. The bad news is that Brett Hundley was the quarterback both times.
Oakland at L.A. Chargers
Line: Chargers -5.5
The Raiders finally won a game -- yes it was against the Browns but it was Jon Gruden's first victory in 3,592 days -- and now they'll go for two-straight victories for the first time since Weeks 12 and 13 last season. (The last time Gruden won at least two straight? He had a four-game winning streak with the Bucs in 2008, his last season with the team.) The Chargers are 2-2 with losses to likely playoff teams (and Super Bowl favorites), the Chiefs and the Rams. If Philip Rivers gets on a turnover spree, and Derek Carr continues to grow into Gruden's offense, the Chargers could certainly lose on Sunday, but we're still unconvinced that Gruden has this team buying what he's selling.
N.Y. Giants at Carolina
Line: Panthers -7
We need a reason -- any reason -- to believe in the Giants. To date, they have provided none, and despite an offseason overhaul, at least on paper, remain one of the NFL's worst teams. That was on full display last week against the Saints, who allowed 48 points to the Bucs, 38 points to the Falcons, and should have lost to the Browns. Instead, the Giants were outclassed at home, losing by two touchdowns, and with no clear solutions to all that ails them. The Panthers, meanwhile, are coming off their bye and have added safety Eric Reid to the roster. Given how bad defenses around the league have been this season -- including in New York -- it's amazing Reid remained out of work this long. A win for the Panthers could catapult them into first place in the division, depending on how the Saints fare against the Redskins on Monday night.
