The 2024 NFL Draft is now just hours away and I'm sure you've read your fair share of mock drafts at this point. If you're anything like me, that means you wake up and consume a mock with your morning coffee and then again at lunch. So I wanted to try a different kind of mock draft with a unique spin to it.
We'll do a first-round mock but with a Fantasy Football focus, which means a breakdown of how every pick impacts each prospect and team from a Fantasy standpoint both in the short term for your 2024 season-long drafts and a long-term with a focus on Dynasty and keeper leagues.
With top wide receivers in the NFL garnering massive contracts nearing quarterback numbers and requiring massive capital to acquire in a trade, it's more important now than ever to draft one locked into a five-year rookie contract. And I think we'll see that reflected in this year's first round especially because it's a loaded class at wide receiver and quarterback. No running backs in my first-round mock as we're trying to keep this thing realistic -- in this class, it's highly unlikely we'll see a back come off the board on Day 1. No worries though as we have the rest of the positions covered.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 1
The Bears knew they were drafting Caleb Williams for a lot longer than some Justin Fields fans would like to admit, and it's for good reason. Williams is the best prospect I've scouted on tape since Trevor Lawrence from a projection standpoint. His release is lightning-quick and reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers and that combined with his footwork, base and mechanics will allow him to be the best quick-game operator from in the pocket. Out of the pocket? He's the most exciting prospect since Patrick Mahomes. He can throw from any platform, any arm angle and the ball will travel up to 70 yards in the air then hit a wide receiver in stride. Williams needs to fix his fumbling issue but Fantasy Football managers will take the loss of points via turnover as trade off for how many touchdowns he'll throw (and he can run too).
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 2
I get the feeling the Commanders knew Jayden Daniels was going to be their pick for a long time now despite not revealing anything publicly. His play style should be a perfect fit for new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels racked up 50 touchdowns himself last season at LSU and totaled over 600 yards of offense himself in a game against an SEC defense (Florida). He is not the make-you-miss in the open field runner Lamar Jackson is, but he manipulates angles in the open field and has one of the best second gears of any quarterback prospect in the open field since Justin Fields. Concerns about Daniels' frame, scramble rate, and how rarely he used the intermediate middle of the field as a passer should give Dynasty managers some pause, but he will likely immediately make sleeper and breakout lists for redraft leagues.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 3
I don't buy the smoke that the Patriots are going to trade out of this spot. They need a quarterback and they might not find themselves in this spot again any time soon and/or if they do it could be in a class where Kenny Pickett is projected as QB1. Ultimately, I have the Patriots going with Maye over J.J. McCarthy -- possibly to the dismay of owner Robert Kraft -- in part because they don't need an NFL-ready quarterback prospect right now. Personally, Maye is my QB2 in this class and closer to QB1 than he is QB3 -- and I think he's much more NFL-ready than credited for. However, the Patriots are in a full rebuild and can afford to have him sit, rework his footwork, improve his throwing mechanics and prepare to start once the roster is built around him ala Jordan Love. If this scenario plays out, I think Maye's Dynasty value will tumble and he'll be an absolute steal. Very few QB prospects combine: elite arm talent, frame, athleticism and the willingness to throw tight windows with anticipation. Maye has shown flashes of being able to do that at 6-4 and 230 pounds and he rushed for seven touchdown and over 700 yards as a Freshman in 2022.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 4
The Cardinals have been very quiet this draft cycle and I think that's because they're locked in on Marvin Harrison Jr. The recent reports suggest they're open for business, but Arizona just traded down in last year's draft and acquired a bunch of quantity re: draft capital. Now, instead of quantity, they focus on quality with one of the best wide receiver prospects since Ja'Marr Chase. If Harrison had tested at The Combine, the hype would be entirely different than it is now. His release package looks like an NFL veteran and his ability to win contested-catch situations in addition to contort his body to make sideline and back-pylon catches will immediately make him a threat for double-digit touchdowns in his rookie season with Kyler Murray. Harrison will likely rise into the third, maybe even second round of redraft picks and he'll be a lock for the top-five in SuperFlex Dynasty leagues -- potentially earning the No. 1 overall pick in 1-QB Dynasty leagues.
| |||||||
Mock Trade from
Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1 - Pick 5
The Vikings acquired the 23rd overall pick for this exact scenario and despite the connection to Maye (Josh McCown coached him), McCarthy was their guy all along. Ultimately, the Chargers couldn't pass up on No. 11 overall, No. 23 overall and a 2025 first-round pick. The reason they love McCarthy is because they're in win-now mode and McCarthy comes from a pro style offense at Michigan. But that's not all. McCarthy is a cookie-cutter perfect fit for the Kevin O'Connell coaching tree with his ability to win in the intermediate middle area of the field with anticipatory throwing and velocity. He'll be able to compete to start right away and provide a better option for Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson than Sam Darnold. McCarthy will rise up Dynasty boards with this team fit and likely surpass Maye. In redraft leagues, he'll be a sleeper on some boards but only in SuperFlex and 2QB leagues.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 6
The Giants miss out on the quarterback market but not for lack of trying. They stuck to their board. If the Patriots had passed on Maye, it would have been the Giants and not the Vikings trading up to No. 5 overall to select him. GM Joe Schoen personally attended six of Maye's games in 2023 and there is the connection to HC Mack Brown. They didn't have the same conviction for McCarthy so instead they take a WR who is as electric and explosive a prospect as we've seen since Jaylen Waddle. There is some discussion they might prefer Rome Odunze, but while the Washington prospect might be a better fit for their depth chart, Nabers fits the system/scheme best -- both Schoen and Daboll have preached separation as the number one trait by far when evaluating WRs. Nabers will immediately provide a home run threat for a team that lost it's only home run threat in Saquon Barkley. While the quarterback room Nabers enters is arguably one of the NFL's worst (Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito), his skill set doesn't require back-shoulder or tight window pass attempts (Jones' kryptonite). Jones can get the ball to Nabers on RPOs, drag routes and quick-hitting first reads designed to just get it into his hands. This caps Nabers' upside as a vertical threat, however, at least in Year 1. Nabers will ultimately end up drafted in a similar range to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in redraft leagues while still coming off the board in the top six or seven overall in Dynasty.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 7
This is the perfect match of need and best player available in the draft class. The Titans are arguably the most offensive line-needy team in the NFL (yes, including the Giants who have Andrew Thomas) despite the fact that they used last year's first-round pick on an offensive lineman. Making this match more perfect is the fact that new head coach Brian Callahan has brought his dad Bill Callahan over to coach the offensive line. Bill is one of the best offensive line coaches of all time and he immediately gets one of the most athletic offensive tackle prospects in the history of the Combine -- who also has excellent game tape -- to work with. This is excellent news for Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears but perhaps even better news for Will Levis as Alt's calling card is his pass protection.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 8
I dabbled with the idea of sending QB Michael Penix to Atlanta here -- Kirk Cousins is 36 and coming off an Achilles tear plus the Falcons roster doesn't have that many holes. I settled on Murphy instead because I think new HC Raheem Morris is going to want to put his stamp on the defense. With Vic Fangio principles at the core of Morris' system, he will prefer trench players over defensive backs. The Falcons are already rich on the interior defensive line, but they get richer with the player I feel is the best defensive prospect in the entire class. There's nothing better than a defensive line rotation -- just ask a lot of the Super Bowl winners over the last two decades. This helps the Falcons win now with Cousins and the weapons they already have on offense.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 9
The Bears held out hope the draft board would fall this way and that's exactly what happened. They land my WR3 in this class, but Oduzne has a higher grade than I've given to any WR in seven of the last 10 draft classes before this. Oduzne doesn't have any flaws to his game unless you want to question his vertical speed translating (4.45) or his ability after the catch. On tape, he wins on quick screens by maximizing space and getting vertical. On the vertical plane, he wins with route running. Odunze caught 75% of his contested catches in 2023 and will immediately be the new No. 1 red zone target for Caleb Williams. He'll be a first-round pick in Dynasty drafts and more of a mid-round redraft pick with upside to return value as a WR3 in Year 1 due to his touchdown upside.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 10
This pick comes down to an offensive weapon or a pass protector for the future and now. I strongly considered Troy Fautanu for this pick as he could play anywhere on the line in Year 1 while providing insurance for their two veteran offensive tackles, but opted with a more "win now" approach. I can't get out of my head how Aaron Rodgers maximized Jermichael Finley before his injuries and even players like Robert Tonyan. Rodgers' quick release and arm talent have allowed him to pick apart defenses in the intermediate middle of the field -- up the seam -- throughout his career. Bowers is an immediate mismatch in this area of the field. Add to the mix the fact that defenses have to account for Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and Breece Hall on every snap and now you have a constant slew of 1-on-1 matchups for Bowers that he can and will win. There is no better fit for redraft and Bowers would immediately be the high-upside tight end you can draft in a similar range to where Dalton Kincaid went last year (back-end TE1). In Dynasty, Bowers will be a first-round pick.
| |||||||
Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 11
The Chargers move back in the draft and STILL get their guy. Although they've been linked to Alt, Latham fits exactly what new HC Jim Harbaugh wants to instill in his offense: physicality, power and sheer size. Latham is the best run-blocking prospect in this class save for maybe Taliese Fuaga. The power/gap scheme Harbaugh will bring to Los Angeles should fit Latham like a glove. What this means for the Chargers is a boost to their run game in 2024. They'll likely find their lead back later in this draft after accruing extra picks from the Vikings which allows them to use those picks acquired for other positions.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 12
Some have connected the Broncos to Bo Nix, but the Broncos have brought in Penix for a top-30 private visit and his skill set provides a higher ceiling for Sean Payton and how he envisions his offense moving forward. Penix wins from the pocket and that's how Payton's system thrived with Drew Brees. This is the clearest path to playing time right away for Penix, who at 24 years old is one of the more pro-ready prospects. He would only be an option in 2QB/SuperFlex leagues, but this would boost his value in Dynasty -- specifically in those formats.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 13
There is a lot of speculation about the Raiders drafting a quarterback, but instead, they opt for one of the nastiest offensive linemen in the entire draft class. Fuaga is an old school right tackle, one of the best run blockers in the class and a perfect replacement for the right tackle they lost in free agency. He fits the mold of the run-first nasty team Antonio Pierce wants to build on offense. His addition is excellent for a power back like Zamir White and would make him a favorite running back sleeper in redraft leagues.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 14
The Saints are in need of an offensive lineman as they build out a better core protection for Derek Carr and Fautanu can play a variety of positions. GM Mickey Loomis has always prioritized offensive line in the draft and the potential looming retirement for RT Ryan Ramcyzk could play a role in this decision.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 15
The Colts were hoping Bowers would fall in this scenario, but instead they grab my No. 1 rated corner in the class. Arnold is at his best from off coverage and his production at the catch point is exceptional. This makes him a perfect fit for the Colts defensive system.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 16
Mike McDonald has arrived and a new era of Seahawks football -- specifically the defensive system -- has arrived. Mitchell is CB1 or CB2 in this class depending on who you ask and has upside to match up with some of the NFL's best receivers. This will give McDonald a pairing of Mitchell and Riq Woolen which will allow him to get more aggressive and creative with how he deploys his front seven.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 17
The Jaguars added Gabe Davis on a buy low while losing Calvin Ridley this offseason despite making a competitive offer to keep the latter. I look at this offense and I think they need speed and a second gear on the outside at wide receiver. Enter: Brian Thomas Jr. The LSU product has the speed (4.33), quickness and explosiveness -- in addition to leaping ability -- testing of the charts in all areas. He also racked up 17 touchdowns for LSU in 2023. Trevor Lawrence will spread the ball around to Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Davis, but Thomas will immediately replace Ridley as the deep threat and red zone option number one. Thomas will be a mid-round redraft pick and solidify himself as a first-round pick in all Dynasty formats by landing with the Jaguars.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 18
The story of this mock is how far the EDGE/DL are falling and it continues here. The Bengals under Duke Tobin have been known for taking the best player and value available, but after close consideration they choose to go the route of the Eagles and Cowboys before them -- find your pass protectors before you need them. While Fashanu won't start in 2024 except for in the case of injuries, it's vital for the Bengals to find linemen to protect Joe Burrow given his injury history. Mims may need some time to develop but he's landing in the perfect situation for that. As one of the biggest athletic freaks to ever enter the NFL along the offensive line, Mims also has some exceptional tape at tackle albeit over a small sample size. The Bengals are betting that the best is yet to come here with a high upside swing on a prospect some evaluators believe has the highest ceiling of any tackle in the class. The Bengals met with Mims at The Combine and then again when they brought him in for a top-30 visit.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 19
In another surprise, Chop Robinson becomes the first EDGE rusher off the board. New Rams DC Chris Shula plans to keep a similar system to the one he inherited with an odd front. The Rams need an EDGE outside linebacker to provide a pass rush boost, and while Laiatu Latu has a better production profile, his injury history might scare some teams off. Robinson brings to the Rams the best first step of any pass rusher in this class with freakish explosion up the arc. He needs to improve his pass rush aresnal to become as productive a prospect as he can be, but the Rams are ready to mold him.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 20
The Steelers are almost expected by everyone to take a wide receiver here, but throughout their franchise history, they've been able to locate some of the best WR talents on Day 2 and sometimes even Day 3 of the draft. This year will be no different. Instead, they opt to sign an offensive linemen in Barton who has played left tackle the last three seasons but projects as a weapon on the interior offensive line anywhere you put him. Barton is one of my favorite prospects in this class due to his ability to move in space and get to the second level. He'll be a weapon for Jaylen Warren in the screen game and both Warren and Najee Harris on power/gap concepts. The Steelers loved what Alan Faneca brought them as a move lineman and so they look to replicate it with one of the biggest risers this draft season.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 21
Ultimately when you dig into the downfall of the 2023 Dolphins the main culprit was the offensive line issues. This offseason they lost one of their best starters when Robert Hunt signed with the Panthers. Powers-Johnson was at his best in 2023 at center, but can play all three interior spots -- wherever the Dolphins need him. He's one of my favorite prospects in this class because I couldn't find many (any?) flaws in his game. He'll be a weapon for them in their wide zone run scheme and De'Von Achane will be the biggest benefactor.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 22
The offensive linemen run continues! The Eagles strongly considered Latu here based on value, but after drafting EDGE Nolan Smith in Round 1 last year, they instead opted to find a long-term solution at offensive tackle for when Lane Johnson hangs up his cleats. The Eagles under GM Howie Roseman have spent the vast majority of their picks on trench players -- offensive and defensive linemen -- this first round is no different. Guyton is a raw prospect, but when you watch him it move, he looks like a tight end playing tackle. Guyton has a built-in-lab frame (6-7, 322, 10-inch hands, 34-inch arms) and he ran a 1.76 10-yard split showing off his elite burst and quickness off the line of scrimmage. The Eagles love linemen who can get to the second level fast and win -- Guyton is the next in a long line of great Eagles offensive linemen.
| |||||||
Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 23
With their force multiplier on offense -- tackle J.C. Latham -- already secured, the Chargers follow in the Harbaugh blueprint of building through the trenches with the first pick that would be considered a "reach" by consensus mocks. I don't consider it that. Jenkins, the son of former All-Pro Kris Jenkins Sr., was the man in the middle of that Wolverines defense. He is the physical run stopper the Chargers need to pair with their edge play and help instill the style of team Harbaugh wants to build. Jenkins also has a lot more pass rush upside than given credit for and you can see it when you watch him flash on film with his first step. The Chargers will grab wide receiver(s) on Day 2.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 24
The Cowboys go with the former Georgia Bulldog who finished his collegiate career with the Texas Longhorns. Mitchell is one of the most intriguing prospects in the class. His production profile is lacking, but if you're a bet on traits believer, he's got them all. Sub-4.4 speed, length, height, he's a hands catcher who plucks away from his frame and most importantly his release package off the line of scrimmage is phenomenal. He's immediately my favorite red zone threat outside the Big-3 WRs and everything the Cowboys wanted Michael Gallup to be when they re-signed him. In this spot, Mitchell becomes my favorite redraft sleeper WR4 and a first-round pick in Dynasty formats.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 25
The Packers made one of the best value picks of the last few drafts when they selected Zach Tom who has evolved into an excellent right tackle. Now, they find their left tackle of the future. Fashanu has arguably the best feet and one of if not the best pass protection profiles from a projection standpoint. The Packers continue to build around Jordan Love.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 26
The slide for Turner and some of the biggest names in this EDGE class ends here. The Buccaneers need a pass rusher and Turner fits the profile as a high-upside EDGE with double-digit sacks in his near future.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 27
Here comes the run on EDGE rushers! Latu met with the Cardinals for a private top-30 visit and has the best production profile of any EDGE in this class. He enters his NFL career with a wide variety of pass rush moves and a pass rush plan -- that's rare for any EDGE prospect and a big reason why Aidan Hutichson has found immediate success. Latu was forced to medically retire earlier in his collegiate career but has been healthy as of late. He would be selected higher in this class if not for the medical history.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 28
After losing Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs this offseason, the Bills opt for speed at the WR position to maximize Josh Allen's absurd arm strength. Worthy is a lot more than just the WR who broke the Combine record for the 40-yard dash. He is tougher than credited for over the middle and would immediately be a big-play touchdown threat for Buffalo. They could also use him in space on screens and end-arounds. Worthy would push far up redraft boards as would any WR selected to the Bills. You could see him go as early as Round 3 when all is said and done. This would also solidify him as not only a first-round pick in Dynasty but possible in the top half of first-round picks (one-QB leagues).
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 29
Kool-Aid was widely discussed as a top-10 or top-15 pick this time last year, and after studying his 2023 tape, I don't think the drop off was as advertised. The Lions pounce on the value here and find Aaron Glenn a cornerback who is immediately ready for an aggressive-styled defense that will require him to play press-man coverage.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 30
It's a further fall than anticipated for Verse, but the Ravens are no strangers to pouncing on the best player available. They also like investing in the trenches with physical players like Verse who can play all over their defensive front. Verse may not have the edge bend or burst up the arc as some of the pass rushers in the class, but he'll be able to immediately set the edge in the run game and that's something teams like the Ravens value. He's a nice addition for a team in Super Bowl contention.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 31
DeJean is one of the best playmakers in the entire draft class on defense and while it's uncertain if he'll stick at outside cornerback, move to safety, or play the alley as the slot defender, he can thrive anywhere on the 49ers defense. A big factor in the 49ers' defensive struggles against the Lions in the Conference Championship game was their secondary. They've changed coordinators and now they add a playmaker.
| |||||||
Round 1 - Pick 32
The Chiefs are no strangers to building through the trenches and here they draft a prospect who belongs on Day 1 and can provide them insurance long term should Chris Jones leave. He also immediately joins one of the best defensive line rotations. Kansas City's depth on the line is a big reason for last year's Super Bowl run.
|
